New Daily News poll shows Obama closing in on Clinton in PA 46-40

[RamboLiberal]

WITH THE Pennsylvania primary six days away, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has moved within striking distance of rival U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a new Daily News/Franklin & Marshall Poll.

Clinton clung to a lead of 46 percent to 40 percent for Obama among likely Democratic voters, with 14 percent undecided. In March, Clinton led 51 percent to 35 percent.

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Obama led in Philadelphia 50 percent to 34 percent, among likely voters. And in southeastern Pennsylvania Obama was ahead 51 percent to 38 percent.

Clinton was favored by 59 percent of northwestern Pennsylvania likely voters to 28 percent for Obama. She also led Obama 59 percent to 18 in the Southwest.

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Perceptions of the candidates have shifted slightly since March. Clinton's favorable ratings among registered voters have declined. She is now at 58 percent favorable, down from 65 percent. Obama's favorables have risen from 47 percent in March to 53 percent now.

http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/New_Daily_News_poll_shows_Obama_closing_in_on_Clinton.html

[gabeana]

1. So another shows the race in single digits,

not good for the Hillary crowd

[Zachstar]

27. It can be just as bad for the Obama campaign if we get lazy.

Please keep assuming that Clinton is winning big and you want to turn it into a win!

Because, It is possible the polls are WRONG!!

So please support and please phonebank!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[grantcart]

2. thanks

[yourout]

3. An Obama upset might put an end to this nonsense.

Hillary would have basically nothing to try and sell to the supers if she lost PA.

[Zachstar]

19. But what is considered an upset?

If he gets her lead down to 3-4 he might be able to get a net delegate gain out of the state.

Now that depends on alot of things but IF that happens I can already hear the chaos as Clinton yells that she won the popular vote. (At that point tho her comments about past democratic losses will haunt her)

[Imagevision]

4. But maybe if Hillary cries...?

[RamboLiberal]

10. Or chugs a few boilermakers

Set 'em up bartender!

[Zachstar]

15. That has already backfired.

It has made Clinton look even more fake on the news and net in my view.

Granted it wont be a gate but it did not get the intended effect.

[Zachstar]

16. Will be exposed in 3 seconds.

That trick has been used.

[constituyente]

5. A key fact you left out

From your article:

But experts said that the survey may not fully show the impact of Obama's statements last week that small-town Americans are "bitter" over their economic status and "cling to guns or religion."

[DJ13]

7. Face it

Theres no "hope" left for Hillary.

[RamboLiberal]

8. I have a feeling this one may swing like a pendulum

Clinton gets some initial gain but then voters begin feeling she's gone over the top and view her attacks more negatively. Especially with Obama putting that new ad out. Be interesting if he can score some points on this tomorrown night in the debate.

[Zachstar]

13. The debate is Obama's BIG chance at turning this into a net delegate gain.

He surely has the research and the plan. So hopefully he will hit a homerun! If he resonates with voters during the debate... He stands a chance at pushing it down to 3-4 percent territory and perhaps enough delegate rich areas to make it a net delegate win!

[ORDem]

18. Which would be nice, but even if she wins, she's only going to net at best 10% of the current

delegate gap. Hardly enough to matter and will all be negated by NC, maybe IN, and then some other states that "don't count" for the HRC campaign.

:dem:

[Zachstar]

24. Let us not talk like that.

Every state is extremely important. If we start saying "O it will b3 canceled by NC" now then Clinton might sneak in a big victory in PA!!

We want Obama to win PA!

WE WANT OBAMA TO WIN PENNSYLVANIA!!!


So PLEASE work to help make that a win!!

Phonebanking is also great!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[Zachstar]

9. Of coruse it is in flux. Obama has recently turned Bittergate back on Clinton.

It will likely spike for Clinton for a day or two before tanking back to 6 or even 3-4

[MadBadger]

12. A key fact you left out was your chronic disruption.

[Tarheel_Dem]

34. Wow. That's gotta be the quickest TS in DU history......

:rofl:

[Zachstar]

6. I was worried for a bit, However, It seems like Obama has reversed Bittergate on Clinton and ....

Has now moved back on the offensive.

I think it is a bit late to make it a win. However, If he can make that 6 into a 4 before the primary then he MAY walk away with a net delegate gain!

Let us hope PLEASE phonebank!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[AllentownJake]

11. This poll is dead to me

Along with any poll that doesn't show a 20 point lead. Bitter is working I tell you....ITS WORKING

:hurts:

[MadBadger]

14. I think theses polls are good for Obama because they understimate his black support

[RiverStone]

17. He has run an amazing campaign

50 state strategy...and Obama may just peak in PA at the perfect moment!

K&R

[KaptBunnyPants]

20. What bullshit story is Hillary's campaign going to push at the end of this week?

You know they have something. It'll be stupid, but they'll have something. And I think we know how the media will cover it...

[AllentownJake]

22. Honestly

I think they threw what they had at him because of Bill and SniperGate 2.

[Tarheel_Dem]

35. Gives me a sick feeling, but I agree with you....

Can anyone say NAFTA-gate, just before the OH primary? The timing was brilliant. Fingers crossed.

[Pirate Smile]

21. I thought this was interesting:

Also, suggesting that Obama has successfully registered new voters, 60 percent of people registered in the past six months said they were supporting Obama, compared with 37 percent for Clinton.

[AllentownJake]

23. They don't have

The new voters from February and March.

No one has them. Not the Hillary campaing or the Obama campaign.

[Barack_America]

25. 50-34 in Philly?

Um, no.

This number tells me that they are over sampling NE and South Philly and under-sampling both North Philly and West Philly. Not surprising considering North and West Philly are poorer areas with less telephone access and also the sites of college campuses with kids and their damned cell phones.

The campaign thinks they've got a reasonable shot at 60-70% of the Philly vote, at least.

[MadBadger]

26. I'm sticking by my 50-49 Obama Win, unless he bombs the debate tomorrow.

[Barack_America]

28. Maybe, but that number for Philly is ridiculous.

My congressional district is expected to go 70-80% for Obama. And there are only 2 districts for the whole city, so...

This poll also doesn't take into consideration the tens of thousands of newly registered voters here.

If this poll has a 6-point lead in the state overall, with a 50-34 split for Obama in Philly, we are likely actually looking at a tie.

[RamboLiberal]

30. I don't buy the SW PA

She will win here - but not by that huge a margin IMHO. I hope I'm right.

[bigbrother05]

29. How does PA award the delegates?

Do they use the state wide percentages or is it done by Congressional districts? Wondering because if it breaks out by districts, there is a chance Obama could gain delegates w/o taking the overall vote. That's something we've seen several times before.

Heard a lot about how they got selectes in TX, but nothing in particular for PA.

[AllentownJake]

31. They are awarded by district

It is entirely possible if this is close for Senator Clinton to win the popular vote by 2% and lose the delegate math and vice versa

[Barack_America]

32. Congressional districts.

I live in PA-2, which is the most delegate-rich district. It is also so Obama friendly it's almost ridiculous. It will go 70-80% for Obama, seriously.

[RamboLiberal]

33. Here's an interesting prediction today

Even with a victory in Pennsylvania, CQ Politics predicts that Sen. Hillary Clinton will barely beat Sen. Barack Obama in the state's all important delegate race.

Based on an extensive analysis of the 19 congressional districts in Pennsylvania, CQ projects that Clinton will take home 53 delegates to Obama's 50 -- out of the pool of district-level delegates that are up for grabs on April 22nd. In all, Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the national convention.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/15/clinton_will_barely_edge_obama_in_pennsylvania_delegates.html

So for 3 lousy delegates, maybe a couple more, she's willing to continue to destroy Democrats chances in November at taking back the WH.

I am thinking her and Bill's strategy is to deny Obama the WH in Nov so she can take one more shot in 2012!

Screw that Hillary - you're going to be as irrelevant as Nader or Pat Buchanan