Even if Obama loses PA, a close loss will be viewed as a victory for him

[Quixote1818]

So, where is the cut off number where a victory becomes a loss? I think a 5 to 6 point loss for Obama will be devastating for Hillary. However, if he loses by more than 10 points it starts looking good for Hillary. However, only a huge win for Hillary will give her a shot at catching up.


So at what point does a loss truly become a loss in PA for Obama?

Keep in mind, they are both likely to win five out of the last 10 contests.

[cliffordu]

1. I think Obama might just win.

This has the same pattern as a couple of his other victories - big disparity early, closes late and wins at the wire, huge.

[Quixote1818]

4. If he wins PA then it's over for Hillary. She would be encouraged to drop out right away. nt

[Zachstar]

8. To win he will have to make no more mistakes and hit home run after home run

That is a little much to ask after he reduced it from a 20 point win! That is just as important as a win because that tells us he can reduce her leads in West Virginia and Kentucky!!

[MercutioATC]

19. Write off WV and KY. I live in OH and we used to call the area "West Pennsyltucky"

To be fair, one should probably include Ohio south of Columbus in that "state".

It really is pretty much one voting demographic.

[Johnny__Motown]

2. some are saying 8% is the expected win for her A 4% win would be spun as an Obama win

[GarbagemanLB]

3. If it the margin is 5-6 or less, it is a victory.

[Zachstar]

5. After 10 it becomes a serious loss.

Because at that point more delegate rich areas will go to Clinton.

He needs to try to keep it under 5 because it gives him a chance to pick up a net delegate gain!

Please support his campaign and Phonebank!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[mcctatas]

6. agreed...

but when we start saying that a loss is a win, don't we kinda sound like some other candidate who I will not name, but it rhymes with sillary?

[cottonseed]

7. Cable news talking heads Blackberries will be buzzing wildly.

The Clinton campaign will put out a tidal wave of messaging proclaiming anything less than an actual loss as a victory for them. These talking heads will report it verbatim.

[Timberside]

9. Mathematical Impossibility For Hillary

Go to the Slate "Delegate Counter", fill in the best case scenarios for the remaining primaries (including Michigan and Florida)... I defy anyone to find a realistic way for Hillary to even come close.


http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

It is already soooo over!

[MercutioATC]

10. Anything less than a 28-point loss is an Obama victory.

No, that doesn't mean that he really "won" PA...it means that Clinton needs a 28-point win in every single remaining primary...AND 64% of the remaining superdelegates...to come out ahead.

I'm predicting a 9-point loss for Obama. As an Obama supporter, I'm thrilled with that.

[PseudoIntellect]

15. 8-9 seems about right. Hopefully low, 4 or 5, by the time the election comes, though.

[MercutioATC]

17. My prediction for a couple of weeks has been Clinton +9 in PA.

I don't think "bittergate" made any real difference, and I'm inclined to stick with that number.

[MadBadger]

11. He will also be viewed as the Teflon Candidate if so.

[juajen]

12. Only by his glitter-blinded supporters.

NT

[MercutioATC]

14. With the few states left and Clinton's current deficit you deny that she has to win PA in a BIG way?

Hell, she was polling +20 there. How is anything other than a Clinton blowout not a win for Obama?

[cali]

18. no, sorry

jejeune. The MSM will spin it as a loss for Hillary if she doesn't win by 10 or more. Only delusional hill supporters don't recognize that.

[Qutzupalotl]

13. You know they'll spin even a 1% margin as a decisive victory.

It's not enough to lift her out of her slump, but they'll claim momentum, electability...in short, they move the goalposts when it suits them.

Like in Texas, where she won the primary but will lose the state. They claimed she won the state and never corrected that statement once the caucus was factored in. They said she needed to win it, and now that she won't, they hope that we're not paying attention.

[BlooInBloo]

16. Anything within 15 points is an Obama win.