*****MULTIPLE PA POLLS SHOW SINGLE-DIGIT GAP: CLINTON'S "TRUSTWORTHINESS" PROBLEM WORSENING******

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

Don't be fooled by the ONE favorite poll of one or two Clinton supporters on this board who would have you believe we have a blowout in the making. They post the same ARG poll day after day, as if it were the only indicator of universal Truth.

Each of these polls was conducted on and after the day bitterfest began. Quinnipiac and F&M are the only ones with any polling done before bitterfest, but the majority of each of those two polls was conducted after it. Quinnipiac also has reported that before/after bitterfest responses are indistinguishable.

Rasmussen: Clinton +9.0
LA Times/Bloomberg: Clinton +5.0
Strategic Vision: Clinton +9.0
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6.0
Franklin & Marshall: Clinton +7.0

For a look at why the Quinnipiac Poll suggests a trend for rising Obama support in the state, see this take on PA voter perceptions of "trustworthiness" of the candidates at: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5514556&mesg_id=5514556

In that thread I discuss why Obama himself is best equipped to deliver the message on Clinton's lack of credibility (and why I think he's taken to doing so lately), as well as why moving voter perceptions of her "trustworthiness" in PA into line with national perceptions is crucial. New numbers inside the ABC/Post poll have the trustworthy gap at over 20% nationally in favor of Obama now. If PA's "trustworthiness" gap (8% in favor of Obama) ever approaches that national gap, it'll be close in PA....maybe a 3-4% win. For Obama.

Other polls from today show Obama up huge: up by 13-15 in NC and by 5 in Indiana over Clinton, up by 10-14 nationally over Clinton, and tied or up by 5 over McHundred nationally (while Clinton loses to McHundred nationally in both those polls).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_041408.html?hpid=topnews
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html





ed for typo

[meow mix]

1. K&R

:toast:

[marmar]

2. I've said that I'll vote for the Dem nominee, whomever it is, and I still will, but.....

.... I don't trust HRC as far as I could throw her.

[0007]

3. Throwing hilary would be one hefty task!

[rurallib]

4. But I've seen an ARG poll posted here about 100 times

that has Clinton up by 20. All those others must be wrong!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

5. yes, all the non-ARG polls were conducted with voters who don't count

[GoesTo11]

6. Likely a modest victory for HRC, then more of the same

These are pretty consistent. She'll get talking points about how this was a big victory in an important state after a long campaign. Obama will get talking points about her not closing the delegate gap. She will be encouraged enough to stay in the rest of the way. And the silly season will continue.

[Bullet1987]

7. SUSA has her up big in PA too...but I have a funny feeling SUSA

will be the odd poll out this time around. I think people have put way too much faith in that polling company.

[Zachstar]

8. Let us phonebank for victory!! GOBAMA!!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

Remember Clinton could still be leading by large numbers so please do not think a win is going to happen without effort!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

9. UPDATE: Today's PPP poll now has Obama UP 45-42 on Clinton.

Another post-bitterfest poll looks good for Obama.
Here we go.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_041608.pdf