Latest Poll of PA: Obama up 45-42 over Hillary

[book_worm]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_041608.pdf

Last week it was 46-43 for Hillary.

Could it be a backlash is ocurring in PA over Hillary's attempt to exploit Obama's "bitter" comment?

Other recent polls are also indicating no real damage to Obama.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Whaaaaaat?

[meow mix]

2. K&R

[futureliveshere]

3. this is difficult to believe, dare i hope???

[book_worm]

4. I still think Obama is behind in PA, but if he keeps a HRC victory under double digits it's

going to be interpeted as a set back for her because she needs a big win in PA to get any momentum.

[futureliveshere]

35. that i agree completely. she might win narrowly, but thats as bad as a loss for her

[ORDem]

61. Even if she gets 20 pts., it won't matter delegate-wise at all.

She'll maybe garner 10+ delegates. She's behind about 130 delegates and subsequent contests would erase that anyway. The SDs are not going to overturn this race just because she wins PA.

:dem:

[futureliveshere]

69. True, but I would so LOVE if he just closes this one out. SLAMS the door on her.

[ORDem]

72. Yep, I agree! Wished it would've happened in TX, but if it happens now, maybe all the better.

He's more ready than ever for the GE. :kick:

[RiverStone]

68. I think even a .0001 win for Obama in PA = Hillary ends her campaign. n/t

[Coexist]

43. please don't - and I'm for Obama -

if he loses by less than 9, I will be dancing in the streets!

[bluestateguy]

5. I am skeptical that he is ahead

But I'll take a 5 pt. loss and be happy with that.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

6. This HAS been coming. It's time to start believing.

[Bullet1987]

7. Bittergate was always an asinine controversy...PPP has been incredibly

accurate in a number of states. While I don't know whether he'll win or not...this poll makes me feel good margins-wise.

[JimGinPA]

8. The Major Flaw With These Polls...

They don't take into account the newly registered democrats, it's nearly 10% of the voters and I don't think the pollsters have their information available yet. The majority of them were registered by the Obama campaign volunteers.

[spinbaby]

22. I don't know that that means anything

I registered voters for Obama and know that a great many of the voters I registered were planning to vote for Hillary.

[JimGinPA]

44. So Did I...

And we registered a few thousand just at colleges in Lancaster County and I doubt more than a handful were leaning towards her.

[Danger Mouse]

9. Hmmm...I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch...

but this could be the start of a positive trend for Obama.

[Divernan]

10. Helped along by this monrning"s Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsing Obama

I've been reading this paper for 40 years, and this is the most thoughtful, powerful, analytical and lengthy endorsement I've ever seen in the paper!Barack Obama: Democrats deserve a nominee for change
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
On Tuesday, Pennsylvanians will have the unusual luxury of voting in a Democratic presidential primary that promises to be truly relevant. Like two opposing armies marching to a new Gettysburg, the forces of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton come to this latest battlefield symbolizing two views of America -- one of the past, one of the future. Pennsylvania Democrats need to rise to the historic moment. For us it is the candidates' vision and character that loom as the decisive factors in this race. •

#######################
This editorial began by observing that one candidate is of the past and one of the future. The litany of criticisms heaped on Sen. Obama by the Clinton camp, simultaneously doing the work of the Republicans, is as illustrative as anything of which one is which. These are the cynical responses of the old politics to the new. Sen. Obama has captured much of the nation's imagination for a reason. He offers real change, a vision of an America that can move past not only racial tensions but also the political partisanship that has so bedeviled it.

•
To be sure, Sen. Clinton carries the aspirations of women in particular, but even in this she is something of a throwback, a woman whose identity and public position are indelibly linked to her husband, her own considerable talents notwithstanding. It does not help that the Clinton brand is seen by many in the country as suspect and shifty, bearing the grimy stamp of political calculation counting as much as principle.

Pennsylvania -- this encrusted, change-averse commonwealth where a state liquor monopoly holds on against all reason and where municipal fiefdoms shrink from sensible consolidation -- needs to take a strong look at the new face and the new hope in this race. Because political business-as-usual is more likely to bring the usual disappointment for the Democrats this fall, the Post-Gazette endorses the nomination of Barack Obama, who has brought an excitement and an electricity to American politics not seen since the days of John F. Kennedy.

First published on April 16, 2008 at 12:00 am
EmailPrint

[Danger Mouse]

11. All those newspaper endorsements...Senator Casey...blowback from 'bittergate'...

things may be looking a bit brighter...

[book_worm]

12. Excellent endorsement! Did you do a seperate thread about it?

I think it deserves it.

[Divernan]

19. Yes, I put it in latest breaking news, but mods moved it to Editorials

I think it's both BIG NEWS and a great editorial.

[Lucky 13]

17. excellent news!!

I believe most people with any sense are now seeing the writing on the wall. This was a good endorsement to pick up!

[John Q. Citizen]

49. Obama has been trending positively for a while now. This looks like more good news,

in a trend sense.

I agree that until the polls are closed and the vote is counted that this shouldn't be taken as a sign Obama is going to win PA, but it is good news.

[MindMatter]

55. "Start of a positive trend"????

Uhhhh

He's won 2/3 of the contests.
He's ahead by every measure.
He's been closing the gap in PA for 3 weeks.

The trend started a long time ago.

The is the end, not the start. The end for Hillary.

[Lucky 13]

13. BAM!

I hope Obama takes every opportunity to make her look like the fool she is. We can end this thing in PA.

YES WE CAN!!

[Zachstar]

14. Not likely to happen BUT it could happen if we continue to work hard!!

Let us continue to Phonebank and hope Obama kicks butt at the Debate tonight!!

Phonebank!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[BigDDem]

15. Taking a page from Team BO...

He must win PA by at least 3 points or this is a HUGE loss for him.

[uberblonde]

16. Except the SurveyUSA and ARG polls...

Which show her leading Obama between 14-18 points.

[Colobo]

20. Let's hope PPP is right!

[book_worm]

24. On the Other hand LA Times/Bloomberg and Quinnipiac polls out yesterday

had Hillary ahead by only 5-6 points. I think it will be close and if it is that will be seen as a defeat for Hillary.

[1776Forever]

18. Next Wednesday morning dare we say the chicks have hatched!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Texas Hill Country]

21. VERY doubtful.

[kentuck]

23. How does anyone trust any poll that has over 10% undecided?

How can we predict how that 10% might go?? They may all go in the opposite direction?

[sudopod]

25. schizo poll is schizo. nt

[book_worm]

29. but the trend in several polls is that Obama is gaining ground.

[Independent-Voter]

26. I'd be cool, but I'm not seeing it. PA's demographics are MADE for Veruca

If Obama can stay within 10%, it's a win for him.

Time to move the goalposts again!

[Nitrogenica]

27. America has learned what false argument is, and is deeply offended by it.

[DB1]

28. I think Obama is still behind, but this is good news.

[Zachstar]

31. The question is how far behind.

I think he may be within 5 now before the debate!

If he can keep it within 5 he stands a chance to win a net delegate gain!

Let us hope he does GREAT at the debate!!

Please Phonebank!! http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[DB1]

41. It is all kind of ludicrous, for Hillary to gain delegates she need 62.5 %

Phone bank tomorrow, thanks for link. Work today.

[bowens43]

30. I think Hillary will win Pa

but by such a small margin that it will insignificant.

[Zachstar]

34. Or perhaps a delegate win for Obama! If we dont get lazy!

If he can keep it within 5 percent the delegate rich areas in accordance to party rules may go to Obama!!

[GoesTo11]

32. Still time for another-gate before Tuesday

It's all about peaking at the right time.

[Hepburn]

33. Cautious optimism.

I hope this is correct...but the polls anymore? :shrug:

[Mz Pip]

36. The polls seem to be

all over the place. :shrug: I don't know what to believe anymore. Tuesday can't come soon enoughfor me.

[MattNC]

38. Amen n/t

[PerfectSage]

37. Would be nice to win, but if Obama loses PA less than 3.5%, my guess is HRC nets +4 outa PA.

Sweet! Hope these trends continue.

[PBS Poll-435]

39. They also had Obama up 45-43 two weeks ago.

Just FYI

[MadBadger]

40. The best part of this poll is that it was done on the 14-15, right smack in the middle of bittergate

[Zachstar]

45. Good point!!

Overall hopefully Obama will keep it under 5 so he may be able to walk away with a net delegate gain!!

[InsultComicDog]

42. Polls are shaky at best

I think the PA machine, which supports Hillary, has got to be good for 4-6 points in Hillary's direction.

So even accepting this poll as being accurate as far as being a representative sample, I would interpret it to mean that Hillary edges Obama in the actual election.

[book_worm]

51. if she "edges" him he still wins because she entered this PA race 20-plus points ahead

and it was always her's to lose.

[InsultComicDog]

70. That's a matter for the spinmeisters and the "delegate math" crowds to decide

I know everyone plays the expectations game, but I guarantee you if Hillary wins PA by 20, this will not be easily spun as anything other than a big and much needed Hillary win.

And if Obama wins the state even by a tiny bit, there isn't enough spin in the world for Hillary to turn it into anything less than a very bad defeat.

I think the media expectation is set for about an 8-14 point Hillary win.

[L0oniX]

46. Oh boy ...now jackson_dem is going to have to post another bull shit poll to counter this.

:evilfrown:

[BlooInBloo]

47. Cool, As long as he loses by less than15 points.

[grantcart]

48. Can Pennsylvania be a Wisconsin

[Bensthename]

50. She through a hail marry and it got intercepted. oops.

[thewiseguy]

53. It was more like a 55+ yard field goal attempt that was returned for a TouchDown!

Chicago Bears style baby!!!

[Bensthename]

54. hell yah.

[Spider Jerusalem]

52. This is encouraging, but I'm taking this with a grain of salt the size of Gibraltar.

I expect Hillary to win PA, at this point. I think Obama will be within 10, and possibly within 5. I'll be shocked if he wins. I suspect this poll may oversample urban voters.

[book_worm]

56. kick for the afternoon crowd.

[olkaz]

57. This has to be an outlier.

I think this serves as the opposite outlier to the 20-point Clinton lead in another poll the other day.

The race is getting closer, but I have yet to be convinced Obama can actually win it. Just being close is quite an accomplishment.

[Cali_Democrat]

58. Hillary doesn't understand that this is the Democratic primary, not the Republican primary

Those comments just aren't going to resonate.

[Major Hogwash]

59. Ruh roh! This is going to make her really bitter. Better get her another few shots.

Geez, she loses now and she is never going to want to throw any more bookbags!

LoL

[jenmito]

60. I just heard a reporter for the Pittsburgh Tribune Review say SHE thinks the undecided will break

for Hillary and she'll end up winning by about 10 points. She also said the "undecideds" just SAY they're undecided to pollsters because they don't want to have to answer WHY they're undecided (implying it's because of his race) and that's why they always seem to go for Hillary. I fear she's right-that Obama WILL get 45% but Hillary will get 55%. Still not enough for her in reality, but enough for her to spin it as a hugh victory.

[oasis]

62. Think so? Prepare yourself for another New Hampshire. (eom)

[book_worm]

66. Why would that be? this is the only poll showing him ahead. She's been ahead in all the polls

as much as twenty points. So if she wins it's not much of a surprise, is it? And if it's a narrow win it's really a victory for Obama--given her lead in this state. New Hampshire is so long ago--why are you still clinging to that? I remember how all the Hillbillies then said that was the end of Obama.

[polichick]

63. And polls don't factor in new or switch voters...

We registered hundreds of thousands of them in PA ~ the vast majority for Obama!

[backscatter712]

64. Definitely encouraging, but remember: REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS.

Obama certainly can win Pennsylvania, but still, it's a very tough state. We might lose, but realistically, we're putting up a damned good fight, and we're gonna keep it close.

And for us, close is good enough. If Hillary only wins by 5-10 points, the result will be a nearly even delegate split, and Hillary's math will be even worse coming out.

Still, a victory in Pennsylvania would be great - something that would finally put a stake through the heart of her campaign and bring this season to an end. One can hope...

[knixphan]

65. for realz?

[RiverStone]

67. Dare I even believe Obama can win next week?

It would end Hillary's candidacy on the spot.

[MarjorieG]

71. Remeber that women not wanting Hillary humiliated and Dem machine key.

Women want to vote for her, another woman, regardless of the realities of what they're prolonging. Possibly damaging the eventual nominee.

That street money to the wards for GOTV (bribes Obama is NOT supplying), and Dem political and electronic machinery still a factor. PA #3 worst on election integrity.

All states have laws and technology not able to provide us with accurate results, worse than ever.

[book_worm]

73. kick for the evening crowd.

[BlooInBloo]

74. It's the wacky poll, of course. But a trend might be informative.

[liberaldem4ever]

75. K & R!! Good!! n/t