Question for Obama supporters...

[JuniperLea]

Why do you think he hasn't won the required delegates for the nomination as yet?

[DJ13]

1. Because the DNC didnt allocate enough delegates for a tight, long race

[JuniperLea]

8. I think the amount is fair

And the DNC probably remembers American political history... it's a fairly recent development in our history that nominees are chosen BEFORE the convention. When I was a kid an my folks worked on various campaigns, convention night rocked! We sat home with the baby sitters while the folks were there in person... we all waited to learn who the nominee was. It was pretty cool.

[DarienComp]

2. Because Hillary's a tenacious campaigner.

Why's she still behind?

[JuniperLea]

9. Ummm... in this case, they are BOTH behind

I'm hoping we don't know for sure until the convention.

[DarienComp]

18. Sure, they're both below 2025. Hillary just below by more.

And you know that's what I meant.

[crispini]

20. Oh, I hope not.

Starting the GE in August would be the worst thing that could happen to us.

[JuniperLea]

31. That is not so...

It happened for years and years with no ill effects. It's the way the primary was originally intended. Our "Instant Society" has turned it into something it never should have been.

[crispini]

36. It happened to *both* parties for years and years.

In case you haven't noticed ;) *their* primary is OVER. McCain has been the nominee apparent for months already and will be able to build his edge and unify his party behind himself as every month passes. If we don't get our shit together by June we will be at a severe message and fundraising disadvantage relative to McCain.

[JuniperLea]

38. My dog's droppings could win against McCain in the GE

This issue MAY have held water in the past, but there's no way, outside of out and out STEALING of this election, could a republican win this race. It just won't happen.

[crispini]

39. See, maybe I'm just a fraidycat

but I worry that we're underestimating him. He's got the "maverick" appeal thing, you know? :shrug:

[SteppingRazor]

3. Because Hillary's won them?

:shrug:

[Bensthename]

4. Because this damn thing takes too long. But he will first. I bet my house on it.

[jpridx]

5. Why?

He's fresh, young, honest, sincere, and many Americans have yet to realize that there is now a perfectly legitimate candidate that has the potential to finally draw us away from the staunchy, old-school politics that have presided over us for decades. Also, our citizens are much more familiar with Hillary, but she's continuing to lose ground as we learn more and more about Obama. At least that's my two cents. Go OBAMA!

[bigwillq]

6. But he still hasn't won the nomination yet

Why? :shrug: That was the initial question.

BTW, Welcome to DU! :hi:

[JuniperLea]

12. Good first post!

I don't agree, but a damn fine post for your first anyway:)


Welcome to DU!


:hi:

[Windy]

7. A recent poll conducted in Michigan found that if people voted today, Barack would beat HRC

by a substantial amount.

I wish a revote could be held, then this nightmare could be over sooner!

[JuniperLea]

14. Polls don't mean a thing these days

Except for exit polls, which I'm all for.

I hope we don't know the nom until the convention, like the good old days.

[jenmito]

10. Because he's running against the entire Clinton machine. n/t

[EFerrari]

11. Because when the contest started, people felt they knew HIllary

and didn't know Obama? Hard to say, really.

[JuniperLea]

16. I think you're right...

Good a guess as any! It is very hard to say. I expected a larger spread by now. Still, I'm hoping we don't know for sure until the convention. I miss those days when convention night rocked the world!

[slick8790]

13. Because he had to fight against the massive Clinton machine, plus the media thumping the

"inevitability" meme. The real question is, how come Hillary, with her 35 years of experience, is getting outcampaigned by a freshman senator?

[RaleighNCDUer]

15. Because the DLC/Clinton machine has a lot of clout, and sewed up

a lot of delegates before they really knew who Obama was. She had, after all, a 25 point lead nationwide a year ago, and was the perceived presumed nominee.

Then a funny thing happened - people actually started voting.

[Egnever]

17. Cause as bad as Hillary is she is still loved by many.

It wont be enough to get her the nod, it is only too bad she couldn't have exited gracefully with much of that adoration still intact instead of alienating so many former supporters.

[ej510]

22. Because Hillary had the name advantage and the establishment which gave her the upper hand. but.....

the race is out of reach for her now.

[TheDoorbellRang]

19. Because it's a close race: 52.2% vs. 47.8%

And all the more remarkable because a relative unknown has outrun the inevitable one.

He'll get there -- hopefully by the end of May but definitely by the first week of June.

[scheming daemons]

21. Because he entered the race as an underdog with little name recognition....

She also had a $100 million head start.


Hillary had a 260-170 edge among SDs on Feb 4th.


Today, that edge is 257-235.



She was the "shoe-in"... the "inevitable one". It takes a while to knock that down.


He's doing it.

[RiverStone]

27. Yes...

And because she was prematurely called the anointed one by the MSM last summer, too many SuperD's followed the crowd mentality and endorsed her way early.

Bet that will never happen again.

[CakeGrrl]

23. Because people are sticking with HRC for several reasons, IMO

1. Female solidarity - I've seen a couple of people on these boards say they really wanted to see a woman in the WH, and they may feel protective or defensive of her if they think she's being treated unfairly

2. The Clinton "brand" - they figure Bill did a good job...competence by association? Maybe they figure with Bill so close at hand, it'll be like having him back in a way

3. The perception of "expertise"...she's been in the WH as First Lady, she's older than Obama, she claims a bunch of years of experience (right or wrong) and that speaks to what some people want to hear

4. Familiarity - they know who she is and they don't know Obama and they go with what's familiar.

5. Anti-Obama: The people who will not vote for Obama simply because they don't like his looks, his style, his message, whatever.



That said, as a woman who supports Obama, I don't find those compelling reasons to support HRC when you add her conduct, her campaign tactics and the lack of campaign management into the mix.

[BlooInBloo]

24. Because "screw 'em" only just broke.

[uponit7771]

25. He doesn't want to, Dem registation has doubled in places were Hillary and Obama campaign

[GoesTo11]

26. Patience, only 82% of pledged delegates elected

If this was just about pledged delegates, then 1627 is the magic number (>50% of total pledge delegates to be elected).

Obama (1415 according to realclearpolitics) has 87% of what he needs to reach that number
Clinton (1251) has 77%.

[dbmk]

28. I'll play

1) Hillary had a HUGH!!1!1!! advantage in name recognition.
2) People have known she would run for ages. So many had already decided to back her and vote for her.
3) Connections and superdelegates up her derriere from the beginning.
4) The Clinton presidency that many, especially given the last 7 years, remembers fondly.

All that gave her a solid base to work from. But she has more or less held steady for a long time in her percentages and hasn't been able to add to that. While Obama has kept it slowly rising and once he hit about 40% as her, it slowed off and he has been steadily gnawing into the undecideds and Hillarys less commited supporters. He is doing it though.

But really. Look at it. Your question is insane. :) Lets rewind a year and look at the question in that light. :)
Barack Hussein Obama. The black "kid". Why hasn't he won it yet. Over Hillary Clinton.

Crazy.

[dchill]

35. You make a LOT of good points!

Welcome to DU. :hi:

[stillcool]

29. Why didn't John Edwards?..

or Dennis Kucinich, or Joe Biden, or Chris Dodd? They could have, couldn't they? Why did they drop out so early? How many candidates have had the delegates required for the nomination when they became the 'presumptive' nominee? And why the hell is Obama where he is anyway? He should have had his clock cleaned a long time ago. He's running against a former President and all the party loyalty that brings. He's a black man with Hussein for a middle name, and no 'favorite son'.

[grantcart]

30. in the democratic party there are no winner take all primaries

therefore if you get 42% of the vote you will get the same delegates as 49%. So it is only possible for a candidate in a two person race to win enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination at this point if they have gotten 70-75% of the vote.

For the same reason Hillary Clinton can never catch up with pledged delegates even if she started winning by landslide victories.


The Clinton campaign has acknowledged that they cannot get closer than 100 pledged delegate deficet by the convention. It could be 150 or more.

[Milo_Bloom]

32. Media/establishment is helping to keep Clinton alive.

They want a horse race, so they are manufacturing one, even when one horse is officially lame.

[dchill]

33. Because of Hillary Clinton.

[TheWraith]

34. Because we represent votes proportionally.

A lot of people have been voting for Clinton. Since the nomination requires an absolute majority, it takes time to clinch it, even though one candidate can--and has--developed a lead that's basically impossible to overcome.

[cali]

37. He's winning. There's really know way to accurately answer your

question.