Clinton Supporters: Time to prove she can still win, lay out the math and path to victory!

[PresidentObama]

I hear it all the time.

Clinton supporters claiming despite the writing being on the wall, they claim Senator Clinton still has a path to the Democratic nomination for President in 2008!

I beg to differ.

Senator Clinton cannot win the nomination. Senator Obama can.

So I'm giving you a chance to prove me wrong. Lay out a LOGICAL path to victory, and give me the math on how she'll pull it off.

If you can't, it's time to admit it.

Otherwise, let's hear it!!

[maddiejoan]

1. Obama has all the required delegates now?

[Lucky 13]

4. Yeah but she needs to win by 65% in all the remaining states.

So how is she planning on accomplishing that?

[maddiejoan]

10. Actually she doesn't have to do that at all.

:shrug:

She has to be able to get the required number of delegates.

So does Obama.

He has a better chance --that's not the same as her having no chance.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

17. You are correct a 99.5% chance is greater then .05%

BTW answer the question of where Annie gets her delegates?

[Lucky 13]

30. So what are you proposing happens if neither ever get to the 2025 which they most likely won't?

Don't you think it should be by majority?

[PresidentObama]

5. That's not an answer. Are you adopting the Huckabee strategy now?

[maddiejoan]

7. Nope.

I'm not.

[PresidentObama]

9. Care to answer the question asked in the OP?

[maddiejoan]

11. Not particularly

since you know the answer as well as I do.

[PresidentObama]

13. Yes, I do. I know the answer. She can't win.

[maddiejoan]

15. ...

Yes. She. Can.

[PresidentObama]

16. So lay it out how...

[hendo]

26. Then please let us know how you think she can do it. n/t

[BalancedGoat]

14. He had a better chance, mathematically.

All he needed was 51% in the rest of the states.

[Mooney]

2. sshhhhhhhh...

[havocmom]

3. can I sell popcorn on this corner?

:)

[PresidentObama]

6. The only response has been the Huckabee answer. Otherwise, crickets.

[SaveOurDemocracy]

18. That's because no one wants to play your game.

Maybe you should go watch the debate instead of trying to stir shit.

[PresidentObama]

19. I'm looking for a simple answer, not spin.

[tritsofme]

20. I gave you an answer.

Pledged delegate leader ≠ nominee.

[SaveOurDemocracy]

21. Uh huh, sure you are...

[tritsofme]

8. She wins the overall popular vote and makes the case to SDs that she has the strongest moral claim

to the nomination through being the choice of the People, instead of being the nominal choice of 50+ different arcane delegate selection processes.

Pledged delegates are just one factor for the SDs to consider in choosing a nominee, but I think popular vote should weigh higher.

This spreadsheet allows you to map out all of the different popular vote scenarios that could pop up:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

Its 2024 or bust going into Denver.

[apocalypsehow]

23. More of your make believe math. Does it ever embarrass you to post things that you

well know are nonsense?

Just curious. :shrug:

[tritsofme]

24. Nothing make believe about it.

There are numerous reasonable scenarios that leave Hillary leading the popular vote.

I really don't know what your deal is.

[apocalypsehow]

28. My "deal" is quite simple: your fairy tale scenarios simply don't add up.

It really is that simple.

What I find curious is that you keep posting them, full well knowing they are fantasy.

[Orangepeel]

12. I'm supporting Obama, but I'll answer.Theoretically, all the superdelegates could switch to her

It ain't going to happen, but it is within the realm of possibility. If, say, Obama punched Michelle on TV or something.

[hendo]

25. or if they decide to be undemocratic. n/t

[PresidentObama]

22. More crickets n/t

[havocmom]

29. Months of this is getting old, isn't it?

Hillary's inevitability washed away early, leaving damned little along the high tide mark, save stinky debris.

[Johnny__Motown]

27. JUST STAY THE COURSE... DON'T ADMIT DEFEAT.. DON'T ADMIT MISTAKES.. LIE LIE LIE

Oh wait... who were we talking about again?


Ah yes, Hillary... never mind

[Lucky 13]

32. Exactly.

[PresidentObama]

31. Anyone? Or are you guys pretending you don't see this thread?

[Hawkeye-X]

33. I've been challenging almost every Hillary supporters for the last 4 months

with the same FUCKING questions like you - and I don't get answers either, not even from pretend statisticians like jackson_dem or Tellurian.

Hawkeye-X

[PresidentObama]

34. Bingo. None of them can.

Even those who can come up with an answer are using fuzzy math, or playing out near impossibilities as some how achievable reality.

[CK_John]

35. Here is a old fashion ward boss path, will it happen? I have no idea. but. .

The last thing the SD's want is to put their reelection up for grabs. They want the spot light pointed the other way. So they need a willing candidate to reappear and become a king maker/breaker with the balls to take the convention hostage. They need to convince a candidate to un-suspend their campaign and change the math.

This candidate will then bargain for a VP slot/cabinet post or settle old scores and throw the delegates to one or the other.

In other words a good old fashion brokered convention. If I were Obama I would be very nice to Edwards.