Why PA Polls are Unreliable: Only Landlines Included in Polling

[Eurobabe]

John Baer from Philadelphia Daily News just brought this up on Hardball from last night.

What demographic group most uses cell phones? 18-34.

Polls, schmolls.

[smiley_glad_hands]

1. I don't ever answer my phone.

I'm not in that age group either. I use mostly my cell, the land line is reserved for telemarketers.

I am a Obama supporter too.

[rox63]

7. I only answer my land line if I know the number that's calling me

So I don't get polled either. Caller ID is my friend. :)

[progdog]

2. I saw that too!

Makes me think there's a chance for us.

[AllentownJake]

3. Plus 400,000 new voters

I switched my address in March. I have got nothing from either campaign. No phone calls, no canvasers, no mailings. If the campaigns don't have the data neither do the pollsters.

[endarkenment]

4. I think this is true for almost all polls

I could be wrong, but I have been polled, only on my landline, never on my cell phone.

[Eurobabe]

6. ding, ding

we have a winner. :P

[Sinistrous]

5. I have wondered about that point.

A priori, it appears to be very relevant. It will be interesting to compare the polls with the PA ballot count (assuming that isn't manipulated again).

I am reminded of the "Dewey beats Truman" fiasco in 1948. I read an analysis of that survey which argued that the reason that it got the results so wrong was that it was conducted solely by telephone. In 1948, the telephone was not a device found in large numbers of lower income homes. So, the pollsters wound up contacting an inordinate number of higher income people, who tended to be Republicans.

[TexasLady]

8. we only have cell phones here as well

if I lived in PA, that would have been four voters missed right there.

[geiger]

9. Younger votes are vastly under-represented in poll results.....

[Zachstar]

10. Hopefully that will change come 2012.

Many people's landlines are now tied into an internet modem these days. And the wisespread use of 700mhz spectrum will mean using a cell phone will be about as cheap as a landline.

[Eurobabe]

11. I am 47 and have 2 VoIP tel numbers

no one every calls me on these lines, except my family & friends. :D

[Zachstar]

12. Well hopefully the polls are not showing a major Obama support group.

I'd sure like to see a win in PA but please do not expect it!!

[crankychatter]

13. timely reminder.... thanks.... k/r

:-)

[MattNC]

14. That reasoning was used in 2004

and it didn't make much difference.

[Dawgs]

15. It made a difference in Iowa.

:shrug: