Repost and update of my Pennsylvania county by county projections

[usregimechange]

Is Allegheny county still an Obama stronghold?

I have only one doubt about the above projections. Allegheny County (10% aprox of PA population). "Clinton led, 57-39, in Allegheny County" according to a Quinnipiac University poll about a week ago. A more recent Zogby poll, which indicated that the statewide race was a dead heat noted "Clinton leads by a wide margin in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh." However, they also made a similar statement about Harrisburg, which has an African American population in excess of 50%. In an e-mail communication with Zogby International I inquired about this they told me that Clinton was leading in the overall region not in the county that includes Harrisburg.

I believe Allegheny County's demographics still favor Obama. While the county has more elderly than the rest of the state, it is just 1.8% higher than the state average. In terms of education Allegheny is 5.9% higher than the state average. There are 2.6% more African Americans in Allegheny than the state average, which if you subtract Philly, makes this a significant Black population. I will admit that "stronghold" is too strong of a word for this county. However, given the demographics and the lack of clear recent polling data specific to this county, I believe it still leans to Obama and cautiously stand behind my projection.


Obama strongholds


Philadelphia, in extreme southeastern Pennsylvania, is where Obama can run up the numbers. Philly is the 5th most populous city in the United States (1,517,550) and it has a massive African American population at 45.8%, the highest by far in the state. Given that Black Democratic primary voters will make up the vast majority of those voting in Philly this Tuesday and that Obama is polling some 8-1 among them, it will take Clinton winning the vast majority of counties in the state to make it up. Fortunately, for her she is expected to win many of them, given their demographics and according to polling data.

Philly suburban counties:

Chester County is the most educated county in the state of Pennsylvania. At almost twice the state percentage, Chester county contains 42.5% of individuals with a Bachelors degree or higher. The county contains Cheyney University of Pennsylvania, the Exton and Downingtown Campuses of Delaware County Community College, Immaculata University, Lincoln University, Penn State Great Valley, the Exton Campus of Troy University, and West Chester University of Pennsylvania. Its population is one of the youngest in the state. But, she will likely not do so in the following counties...

Montgomery County (Philly suburbs) is the second highest educated county in Pennsylvania with 38.7% with a Bachelors degree or higher. It contains 750,097 people per the 2000 census, the most populous of the Philly suburban counties.

Delaware County has a sizable portion of Philly suburbs and as such has a significant African American population at 18.4% and is also well educated at 30% with a Bachelors or higher. It also includes the city of Chester, which is 75.7% Black.

Bucks County is another Philly suburban county in the Delaware River Valley. It is where George Washington crossed the Delaware River in December of 1776 on his way to one of the most significant battles in the Revolutionary war. It has few African Americans but is highly educated with 31.2% having a Bachelors degree or higher. It is also significantly young compared to the rest of the state.

Other counties:

Centre County is the third most educated county in Pennsylvania. State College, a borough in Centre County, is home to Penn State University. It has the lowest percentage of elderly citizens than any other county in the state.

Dauphin County has an African American population of 18%. Dauphin county is home to Harrisburg, the state capital, which is 54.8% Black.


Clinton strongholds:

Pretty much every where else.


Demographic maps of importance

[usregimechange]

1. Linking to the old version in case anyone is interested.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5088717&mesg_id=5088717

[BenDavid]

2. That's good and informative, but HRC still wins Pa, right. uh huh

[usregimechange]

3. In case you didn't read what I said correctly, I said HRC will many many rural counties not PA

[writes3000]

5. I think you're missing a key word in your sentence above.

I'm trying to decipher it but I'm stuck.

[usregimechange]

6. Could you point me to it?

[Arrowhead2k1]

4. We just need to see a single digit margin baby.

And this thing will finally be wrapped up. I can't wait to see the drama unfold. :D

[usregimechange]

7. Me too, get out the popcorn,,,

[JimGinPA]

8. K&R

[WinkyDink]

9. Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon = Clinton.

[usregimechange]

10. I wasn't able to project them but I agree their demos favor her.