Time-tested formulas suggest both Bush and Kerry will win on Nov. 2

[Freddie Stubbs]

WASHINGTON — The winner of this year's presidential election is already obvious.

It's Republican George W. Bush.

Unless it's Democrat John Kerry.

Of six measurements for predicting the outcome of presidential contests, all with excellent track records, each signals a clear outcome in November. The problem is, they're pointing in different directions.

more: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-06-23-bush-kerry-cover_x.htm

[fertilizeonarbusto]

1. If the incumbent is not clearly winning,

he's going to lose. This election reminds me more and more of 1980 every day. Remember, Carter and Reagan were "neck and neck" until election day, when Reagan won big.

[Frodo]

4. In 1980

Carter's approval numbers were around 20%.

No, this year fits very comfortably into the "gap" between winners and losers.

Every president that was doing better in the polls than Bush currently is won... and every one doing worse than he currently is lost.

So he is guranteed to lose... or win. 100%


BTW - I don't remember it being "neck and neck". I think Reagan was up by 8% in the Gallup polls at this point.

[wurzel]

2. Bush will win if Kerry wins!

We all will.

[Frodo]

5. I like that.

[WI_DEM]

3. kind of like in 2000

when Gore won but Bush still became President?