PA POLL: Hillary 47 (-3), Obama 44 (+3)

[jefferson_dem]

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary
Pennsylvania: Clinton 47% Obama 44%
Friday, April 18, 2008

The Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania is getting even closer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Thursday night, the night following a nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.

Obama’s support appears to be a bit softer than Clinton’s at this point in time. Six percent (6%) of Obama voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Only 2% of Clinton supporters say the same.

Overall, with less than a week to go, 9% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided, 3% say there’s a good chance they will change their mind, and another 12% might change their mind. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Clinton leads 53% to 47%.

Perhaps the worst news in the survey for Clinton has nothing to do with the race getting closer. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that the Superdelegates should honor the results of the primaries even if “something happens to convince Superdelegates that Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating John McCain.” If Clinton is deemed more electable, just 33% believe that the Superdelegates should select her over Obama. Clinton’s only viable path to the nomination is to convince the Superdelegates that they should vote for her despite Obama’s edge among pledged delegates.

<SNIP>

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

[saltpoint]

1. A tightening race. It will be exciting for PA Dems this weekend.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. A week is a long time in politics

but the trend is that Obama is gaining ground in PA

[olkaz]

3. Just keep it within ten.

And it's over.

[Cosmocat]

5. 5 or less ...

even an eight or nine point spread lets her get all puffy and the media will have to acknowledge that it was a solid win ...

Get it to 5 or less, and it is a loss for all intents and purposes ...

[jefferson_dem]

12. Until the media discover a 10-15 point win only nets her 15ish delegates.

THEN...we'll hear a clarion call for her to step aside.

[mckeown1128]

19. She is set to get anywhere from 20-30 delegates...

I have been doing analysis on it... I will have it up tonight. (with maps and polls and all) :)


It still wont be enough for her.

[BlooInBloo]

24. Fewer than that.

[PA Democrat]

4. Great news. K & R

[slinkerwink]

6. I think Clinton will win by 12 or 14 points.

[powergirl]

7. I was thinking that too

those undecided voters are a large group that could come out for Clinton. Turn out is key for Obama. Clinton does better when fewer folks turn out. No surprise.

[KittyWampus]

10. turn out, especially new voters, can be harmed by moved voting places, broken machines,

lost registrations etc.

In other words, disenfranchisement by whoever controls machinery.

[PA Democrat]

17. We have a team of attorney volunteers for the Obama campaign

in my county to address these issues real time. My husband is a proud member of Obama's team!

[powergirl]

26. Thank you PA Democrat and your husband

I really appreciate all of your hard work. I'm a Texan and we had to watch out for that crap down here. I'll be praying, lighting candles, whatever my Catholic self can do to send my best to your success in PA. My husband lived in Reading as a child and is a Penn State alum. He wants PA to bring it HOME.

:toast:

[KittyWampus]

8. me too, she picks up more undecideds, Obama gets more new voters=wash, but then disenfranchisement

as Rendell's machine gets into gear brings a few points back to Hillary.

[slinkerwink]

13. exactly. the undecideds should be factored into the polls.

[my3boyz]

9. I agree! I hope he can cut it to at least 10 but it is not likely. nt

[cali]

11. I agree

though nothing would surprise me- or almost nothing.

[malik flavors]

14. Damn, I wish this could be the final result.

[Bicoastal]

15. B-b-b-but he lost the debate! And he thinks Middle America is "bitter"!

And his pastor hates America!

HOW CAN HE STILL BE GAINING?

(:thumbsup:)

[jefferson_dem]

18. And he scratched his face during a speech!

And he sits on charitable foundations with a college professor who used to be a 60's radical!

:wow:

[npincus]

16. Debate-Backlash, perhaps?

[Jawja]

21. I think part is debate backlash, yes.

ABC and Clinton went over the top in their not so subtle attempt to ambush Obama.

This shoddy excuse for "journalism" has reminded the public of why we might be in the condition we are in. After all, this is the same "fourth estate" that has and still is giving the George W. Bush criminal administration a free pass.

[book_worm]

20. looks like going negative has hurt Hillary...again.

[Ian_rd]

22. GO! GO! GO! GO!

If he actually pulls this off, I'm gonna throw a freakin' party about it.

[Bullet1987]

23. More proof Bittergate had no legs whatsoever...

It'll be interesting to see if Obama gets a bounce from that sham of a debate by ABC.

[Ichingcarpenter]

25. Bill Clinton will say something stupid again before the election

You don't have to be a disciple of Sigmund Freud to wonder if Bill, on an unconscious level, is in competition with his wife. His head and his heart -- his conscious and his unconscious mind -- may be working at cross purposes.


Conservatives' worst nightmare is the image of Bill Clinton shuffling around the West Wing for four or eight years with nothing to do. It looks like Bill may be struggling with the same vision as well.