PA slipping away!!

[not_too_L8]

Rasmussen: Pennsylvania Primary Tightening
By Greg Sargent - April 18, 2008, 11:30AM
The new Rasmussen poll shows the Pennsylvania primary tightening -- here are the numbers, compared to last Monday:

Hillary 47% (50%)
Obama 44% (41%)


One interesting tidbit from the poll: A surprising 12% say something they saw in the debate caused them to change their mind about how they're voting. This is a bit of a murky stat, but taken with the tightening of the race it could be a sign that the debate may have played against Hillary.

[kwenu]

1. I hope he pulls of the win and breaks the back of Hillary's campaign.

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. It's unlikely,

but then his entire campaign has been unlikely.

It is certainly far more probable than Hillary getting the nomination.

[olkaz]

17. I think it's unlikely on two fronts.

1. It's unlikely that he wins Pennsylvania.

2. It's unlikely Hillary concedes if she loses Pennsylvania.

Single-minded ambition worries not about collateral damage.

[ORDem]

32. Doesn't really matter that much. Obama's only 211 pledged delegates

away from having the majority of them. After that it's essentially all over. The SDs will come running to him once that's achieved. Hillary can't possibly reach that PD majority unless she pulls like 70% in EVERY primary from here on out. And she won't.

[thewiseguy]

2. GOBAMA!!!

[Adelante]

3. That is interesting

I always wonder if these debates have any affect on the public anymore.

[PoliticalAmazon]

20. I think the blowback from the debates will take a few days to be reflected in polls. n/t.

[PoliticalAmazon]

21. I think the blowback from the debates will take a few days to be reflected in polls. n/t.

[democrattotheend]

4. No it's not...Chris Matthews is right

I want to believe this poll but I have a sinking suspicion that Matthews is right about Clinton winning by 14 points...if he's wrong I'll be thrilled, but I don't want polls like this getting hyped because they up the ante and set Obama up to underperform expectations.

[thewiseguy]

6. Matthews is playing down the expectations

That is a fine thing to do but reality is something else. :)

Her biggest lead is 14 points in SUSA. I suspect even there her numbers have come down.

[RaleighNCDUer]

7. I can understand caution,

but when's the last time Matthews was right about anything?

[my3boyz]

34. I know! He said Obama did not have a chance last summer! He said the machine always wins. However,

I do agree that Hillary will win by double digits in PA. The state demographics are good for her.

[Robbins]

8. RAS

They are a right wing leading poll,and If they have Hillary's lead down to 3 she Is In trouble.
Every poll has said people thought Obama won the debate,and critized ABC.Now I still think he actully
winning PA Is a long shot but better than It once was.She just barely winning PA Is looking more like It could happen.

Why Is anyone taking Matthews serously? Even after Obama started winning he still acted like Hillary was the Inevitable nominee. He thought Biden would end up In the top 3 In Iowa,and that Romney would do better than he did In the Republicans race.

[thereismore]

15. That's true, but Tweety predicted double digits for Hillary, and I just don't see that now. nt

[MarjorieG]

29. Many factors not related to Obama

Hillary has the political machine, which means hanky panky at the polls can happen. Even loss by human error. Obama didn't pay the GOTV to ward bosses, which he calls bribes (because money doesn't get to the GOTV, etc).

Some registered as Dems to make mischief, and some want to vote for a woman, despite our need to have them think bigger picture, here.

Also, they can be manipulative polls, wanting a Hillary win.

[IsItJustMe]

9. The turning point of the debate for me was when Obama refused to pounce on Hillary for her Bosnia

statements. We don't see to much of it anymore, but some of us do recognize character when we see it. Obama was a class act that night.

[truebrit71]

13. 100% Agreed...we could have OWNED her on that lie alone...but he chose not to...

...very impressive indeed....

[livetohike]

22. He was the mature one in the debate

It was refreshing to see.

[demwing]

10. Agreed. Obama takes PA by 2

I'm calling it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5551793&mesg_id=5551793">http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/...

[demwing]

27. Bad Link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5551793&mesg_id=5551793

[Stephanie]

11. Mean Girl doesn't play in PA

[Eurobabe]

12. Didn't we all figure this would happen? 5 weeks?

I predict Obama by a squeaker.

[thereismore]

14. WTH? This is after the "debate" and he still pulls in closer? WTH WTH! nt

[goclark]

31. 35,000 people at his Rally tonight and the Train Ride and the

Football Tailgate party etc.

Come on Obama! Knock it out

[Bucky]

16. I'm still betting Clinton's final total will land 5-8% points above polling

Late breakers have consistantly favored Clinton more than Obama. Anything above 45% for Obama is a moral victory.

[democrattotheend]

19. That sounds about right

I would love to be wrong but I think you hit it spot on. She does tend to win the late deciders.

[tokenlib]

28. But if she is seen as sinking overall...

...will the undecided still want to go with her? I don't know..just wondering....

[housewolf]

18. There is still a high UNDECIDED percentage - 9%

9% is substantial and could turn the election either way.

[not_too_L8]

23. Yes, and in most of the primaries Clinton

has swung the majority of undecided voters, but I think Obama will still finish within 5 points

[ej510]

24. Undecideds are Hillary voters. There are no undeceideds.

[RaleighNCDUer]

25. Agree. Undecideds are morons who have not been paying attention,

so when push comes to shove, they go with name recognition.

Hillary voters.

[not_too_L8]

26. I would not say they are morons, ....

I think it's all in the perspective, if they see the full view they will swing to Obama.

[boppers]

30. ITYM Obama *IS* 44,

Not Obama 44%. ;)

[AllentownJake]

33. All OBAMA Supporters

No matter where you live you can help us in PA. Go to the website make 10 calls and help us end this thing so we can take the next step to going after the real enemy John McCain and the Rethug faithful. Yes We Can!