12% and 72 hours

[underpants]

Obama has 72 hours. If he can ride out the onslaught that is coming his way over this weekend he will be okay. If he can get to Monday afternoon without taking their bait and going negative or making a really horrendous live-on-the-air move he will be okay. I think the ABC debate was just the opening and they fired their biggest weapons at him and he didn't go down. Stumbled a bit sure but he bounced back up.

This is pretty much the last shot the establishment has of getting rid of the competition for their known quantity. Obama isn't a radical but they also don't have dirt-real personal dirt- to use on him. Even with the availability of whatever endless wiretapping and spying would normally provide they haven't been able to make him go away or turned the screws on him and make him drop out. This is unknown territory for them and they don't like unknowns. If THEY have anything in their pocket it has to come out now.

MSM will be completely on board of course but as with almost everything else related to the Clinton campaign the came out of the gate late and awkwardly (ABC debate). Unorganized and not thought out.

It is going to be a rough nasty weekend. Hold on.


12%-she has to win by at least 12% or the slide of superdelegates over to Obama will begin. 20% and she might just be able to get to Denver with a reasonable excuse to be there and then she and Bill can start wielding their influence (and they have lots of that) on the party's power players.

12% and 72 hours.

[democrattotheend]

1. I have a really bad feeling

Hopefully I am being paranoid but I have a feeling things are shifting her way now and it's going to be worse than Ohio.

[scheming daemons]

5. Dont.... PA is slightly more liberal than OH.... She'll win by 4-7%

[TwilightGardener]

13. Actually, I think the opposite--I think PA will become closer.

[SeaLyons]

17. I think you're right!!

Go Hillary!!

[writes3000]

38. You worry a lot.

Yesterday, you worried that Obama's campaign stop in NC meant that his internal polling numbers in PA were horrible. Now, he's spending the next few days in PA and you're still worried.

You may be right but this really could go in any direction.

And I think the Steelers event tonight will get some decent press in PA.

Try not to worry so much. I think Obama's team is very well positioned over the next few weeks.

[Voice for Peace]

45. Ohio wasn't that bad! and I just re-realized something about Obama.

In his many years of experience working persuasively with people -- on their own behalf -- he's gotten very good at getting people to see what is in their own best interest, and to also participate enthusiastically in achieving it.

He has LONG since discovered the great power of honesty and integrity, as opposed to cheat, deceit, manipulation in politics.

He has ALREADY seen that this is powerful. He has ALREADY learned what really works. He's already discovered, over more than 20 or 30 years, that the approach he's taking is a sure thing.

Very few people in politics have learned this lesson. But he's learned it well -- has probably been learning it since childhood. He already knows it's a winning strategy. I'm really beginning to believe he's unbeatable.

[ginnyinWI]

46. We'd better expect a "shame on you Barack Obama" moment

incoming, maybe tomorrow afternoon. :hide:

[4_Legs_Good]

49. 12% is about right

Your bad feeling, I think, is just reality. Pennsylvania is a Clinton bastion. It's a sure thing for her. It's the last big sure thing she's got. Sure she'll get KY and most probably WV, but they're small. This is her biggest bang, and then the drip drip drip continues until Obama takes the nomination.

Don't lose hope, or even fret much if she wins by 12%. Personally I'd see that as something of a victory. If he can somehow lose by less than 10% it's a done deal.

David

[slinkerwink]

2. I fully expect a TV ad or robocalls about Ayers or Wright

[LaurenG]

3. I'm just going to have to kick this and say that I belive he can do this

We'll see very soon. :kick:

[redqueen]

4. *sigh*

[LSparkle]

6. I'm wracking my brain trying to imagine what this may be ...

He's already dealt with the kitchen sink, toilet, etc. ... It boggles
my mind to think what may come next.

But I'm not afraid. NOT THIS TIME.

[underpants]

8. Ayers, I think, was the biggee

at least THEY thought it was

60's
radical
terrorist
in the same room at the same time as Obama
gave money
etc.

The classic undertone of the 2004 "old guys" vs. the radical Kerry.


We'll see if it resonates with Pennsylvanians :shrug:

[jenmito]

12. And who did Bill Clinton pardon again?

[LSparkle]

18. Exactly -- GREAT way to diffuse that argument

Plus, Obama's connection with Ayers is so peripheral .. unlike
with Rev. Wright, there's no history.

[jenmito]

27. I can't believe that after Obama's response to her Ayers' accusation, where she had no comment,

she'd continue to push this issue!

[underpants]

19. Unorganized and not thought out

as I said in the OP

I am amazed at some of the output from a campaign with such well "educated" expensive advisors on it. They clearly don't read things aloud to the group and let everyone spitball the possible reaction to it. Over and over again they bring up stuff that has literally blown up in her face (the sniper thing was laughably bad).

I have heard hints from the likes of Jon Stewart (on Larry King) and (drawing a blank) that maybe there is someone really deep inside her campaign that keeps throwing tiny little monkey wrenches around because , let say, HE ;-) doesn't want her to eclipse HIM ;-) and be President .....too

[jenmito]

29. That's very possible!

"He" clearly has a gigantic ego. Maybe he doesn't WANT her to be president and is only pretending to be working FOR her because she told him he owes her for the cheating stuff?!

[underpants]

36. You can't win if you don't play

that's what the lottery people say

Bill would have looked odd just standing there and you can't gum up the works looking in from outside.

Who knows? but he has done some really dumb things for such a smart and politically wiley guy

[John Q. Citizen]

7. Hill needs to win by 28% to be on the road to catch up. Then she needs to win

every other state left by 28% just to catch up.

Ain't going to happen.

[underpants]

11. #

I moved around the number and settled on 12 but that was just figurin' based on readings of the conventional wisdom (sorry). The CW says "double digits" which is basically setting her up to still be in it if she wins by 10%. I think the real number, not to win mind you just to stay in, is more like 15%. IF she does get to 20 (let alone 28) she is in until Denver for sure. Probably will be anyway.

No one is going to win anything by 28% at this point.

[John Q. Citizen]

28. My guess is that the super Ds are going to continue to move to Obama in

ever greater numbers and that he will surpass 2025 by the MT and SD primaries on June 3rd.

This isn't going to the convention, even if Hill pulls off a 15% win in PA. The nly way concievable it would go to the convention is if Hill runs the table with 28% margins of victory. (or at least damn close)

Nobody (with the exception of a few blindly loyal die hard Hill supporters) wants this to go to Denver.

The rest of the party wants it wrapped up by June.

Also, the super Ds don't want it to appear that they are responsible for selecting the nominee, they want the voters to be able to put Obama over the top with pledged delegates.

[underpants]

34. Eh

I hope you are right but this is going to be a really tough pill to swallow for someone who has spent her whole life focused so acutely on this specific objective.

There also going to be a LOT of broken hearts across this country no matter how it ends.

[John Q. Citizen]

42. Hill may not concede even if Obama goes over the 2025 mark in June, but for

the rest of the party, for the media and the voters it will be definatively over. It will be like Huckabee, but far more so.

There are going to be broken hearts, and the sooner the better so the healing can start.

Putting off the heartbreak is the worst thing that could happen to the party.

[Arugula Latte]

43. You know, this is sort of an off-topic thought, but it made me think about

how Hillary is just so damn adamant that it is her turn, dammit, and she doesn't care who she tramples to try to fulfill what she sees as her destiny and her rightful coronation.

Yet, think of how easily she voted to send young men and women off to their deaths in Iraq. So much for their lifelong hopes and dreams and so much for the hopes and dreams of hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis.

Yet, it's still all about Hillary, in her mind.

[underpants]

44. Cafferty on CNN just said "8-10%" if Hillary wants to stay in the race

that is NOW the conventional wisdom.

Goalposts successfully moved.

[40ozDonkey]

No, she needs to START by winning 65% of every state.

If she wants to make a case for electability she needs to start winning by large enough margins to tie Obama in delegates. Her winning 56-44 in a state where she's favored is still inadequate to make an electability argument to superdelegates.

[40ozDonkey]

9. Dupety dupe dupe n/t

[jobycom]

10. Relax, The media has written him as the nominee already. He's survived

a horrendous debate performance by turning the attack on the media, he's flipped Clinton off and gotten away with it (don't even try to pretend that was innocent), he got away with his Annie Oakley comment. He's been negative since last summer, when he started the whole thing by calling Clinton a liar and untrustworthy. He turned the whole race around by misrepresenting Clinton's comments on LBJ, turning them into an attack on MLK. He's even gotten away with calling the political opinions of small towners meaningless.

There is no way he can lose. There is nothing that he could do worse than what he's done all along. He could drown kittens, he could molest a child on video, he could film a porno flick and snuff his costar when it was over. The media will still anoint him, and his supporters will blame Clinton for it.

So relax. It's over. Bob Roberts has won. The rest of us are just hoping for a miracle awakening that will never happen.

Now, when the MSM pulls the rug out from under him for the GE, that's a different story. I imagine Clinton will get blamed for that, too.

[40ozDonkey]

15. Wow, if you're right then she was outclassed by a rank amateur.

Good thing she'll never be president, lest she sell off the Western half of America to China for a handful of shiny beads.

[jobycom]

20. She was beaten by the media, just like Gore.

If that makes you feel good, knock yourself out.

I no longer care. Heck, I'll even vote for Obama. The worst thing that could happen to his supporters is to see him win, and watch in horror as he betrays them.

[40ozDonkey]

47. Thanks for making my point.

It looks kind of silly when the one candidate who ran on the hope that she could best handle the media is denied an easy win by voters, and then her supporters blame the media.

[Mz Pip]

50. Okay, I'll bite

Just exactly what will this "betrayal" look like? He'll keep Cheney as VP? He'll bomb Mozambique? WHat kind of betrayal will bring about "horror'?

DO tell, since you seem to be so sure of this alledged betrayal.

[underpants]

16. Oooh

Bob Roberts

I don't agree with you but you make present strong case.

[jobycom]

21. Remember the final scene?

His supporters stand outside his apartment, and realize he has been lying all along. Rather than turn on him, they smile.

[underpants]

32. Joby

I do remember the last scene of "The Candidate" "What do I do now?"

I have to say that the one thing that can bring down Obama in the GE was the first thing that the Republicans started with on him--that "we don't know much about him" and the madrassa story/muslim email

You know what, it works. I have entertained WHAT IF scenarios. What if he really is this mole and it was all there for us to see the whole time? Not a muslim mole but a truly radical mole. (look I run long distances in the early morning hours and I ditched the iPod months ago so I have to do SOMETHING other than worry about werewolves) :-)

That being said I don't think that he will make all that much change in DC anyway. The establishment there has safeguards to make sure that really can't happen (unless you go the way W &Co. did) but the rejection of the right and the rejection of the DLC is what I want to see. Create chaos or at least some change and then make your move.

[jobycom]

54. I don't believe he's backed by anything more sinister than the normal money interests

But he is a creation of someone else, and the words he speaks aren't his own. And there's a cruel, bullying streak in him, just like Bob Roberts.

And I don't agree about the safegaurds. He can do a lot of damage, if nothing else by not knowing what to do.

[islandmkl]

14. Hillary to her subordinates:

f*** the kitchen sink, forget the pots and pans...

BRING ME THE SHIT FAN!!

[Buzz Clik]

22. I suppose anything is possible.

12% would fall in the "improbable" category.

[knixphan]

23. The High Road will win.

[Rob Gregory Browne]

24. Realistically, she has to win by a lot more than 12% and

she has to KEEP winning the rest of the primaries. It isn't going to happen.

Just get used to saying President Obama.

[jazzjunkysue]

52. Just to even it up, she needs 65% of the rest of the delegates: Impossible.

Clinton needs to win a forbidding 65 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries to draw even with Obama in pledged delegates. It's a share she has achieved only once so far, in Arkansas, where her husband was governor for more than a decade.

Analysis: Time, delegate math working against Clinton

By DAVID ESPO
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080418/D904FO280.html

[Willo]

25. I'm worried about the honesty of the vote count.

Are there ways to keep an eye on that?

[underpants]

26. I am too

I didn't want to get into that but I wouldn't be surprised at this point

[TwilightGardener]

37. Yep--wherever Hillary has the support of the state "machine", she

always magically does better than polls suggest. Funny how that works. Fast Eddie Rendell won't let her lose, even if she does.

[Willo]

41. Yep, when Rendell was boasting a win by 20

I was thinking he's got the votes covered.
But, when he moved to post down to 5 and even 1, I figured it was going to be more work than he can control.

Totally my own speculations.

[Life Long Dem]

30. While Clinton resorts to smear tactics and attacks on Obama.

Obama resorts to endorsements such as former Clinton labor secretary Robert Reich. Reich is also a longtime friend of the Clintons.

Obama also was endorsed today by former Sens. Sam Nunn of Georgia and David Boren of Oklahoma.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

31. That 12% is actually doable for her.

I'm not 100% sure if she'll actually make it, but it is possible at this point. The 20% isn't going to happen. I believe the Clinton camp are fresh out of mud. All Obama has to do is keep it clean until Tuesday.

[underpants]

33. Yeah I lowered the bar

as I posted above 15 is more like it and statistically she has to get something like 28

No way.

By the way you might want to stand back-that subject line may bring them out of the woodwork

[Lone_Star_Dem]

35. Lowering the bar. Moving the goal posts.

Is there nothing stationary in this damn primary! :crazy:

[high density]

39. She has no reasonable excuses left

It's a mathematical impossibility given the current polling data. Short of Barack Obama putting a baby in an oven, he has got this sewed up.

[barack the house]

40. Keep making calls folks but extra polite to the lady voters. Hi patriot voter or something.

[rainbow4321]

48. HRC new debt list will be released this weekend...

FEC deadline is April 20th so she cannot stall the di$aster til after Tuesday.

Here is the FEC website that will have her $hoddy campaign management on it within the next couple days.

Obviously, the MSM will ignore it so it really, really needs to be spread around the 'Net as much as possible.

http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2008/M4/

[ORDem]

51. I have a totally different take on it and it was confirmed by the Newsweek poll

today showing Obama over Hillary by 20% nationally.

My theory (even before the dreadful ABC "debate", but furthered by that same event) is that nationally as well as in PA people are finally fed up to "here" with the length of this primary season and with Hillary's latest desperation tactics that a lot of undecideds are going to come down on the side of Obama just to get it over with. Yeah, not a great reason to vote for him, but we'll take it, yeah??! :)

:dem:

[quantass]

53. Do the smaller county tallies come in 1st before the major metros? (if so then..)

Hillary will appear in a large lead on the onstart but over the course as more votes tally then obamas numbers will slowly rise....its going to be gut wrenching to watch.

[David Zephyr]

55. We see this the same way.

Thanks for pointing me over here, underpants.