*****THE POST-DEBATE SHIFT: PA POLLING CONFIRMS PRO-OBAMA TREND****

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

We now have our best look so far at the effect of the "debate" Wednesday night as captured by one pollster/one methodology, with a poll taken entirely the day before the "debate" AND a poll taken entirely the day after the debate. Nobody else has comparable results to report, although Zogby can almost confirm the post-debate effect. Half of Zogby's most recent poll came on the day of the debate, though.

At the moment, then, we only have Rasmussen:
On Tuesday, 4/14, all polling the day before the debate: Clinton 50, Obama 41, Undecided 9
On Thursday, 4/17, all polling done the day after the debate: Clinton 47 (down three), Obama 44 (up three), Undecided 9

That's a nice 6-point swing in three days. If we can take Rasmussen at face value, Obama needs to capture the remaining Undecideds by 2 to 1, which often is how undecideds break for a "challenger" and against an "incumbent." I've read a lot of commentary suggesting voters are more inclined to look at Clinton as the incumbent, given her family's long ties to power. I'm not entirely sold on this, though. My guess is the six-day train tour will have to convert not just Undecideds but also Clinton supporters, too.

Regardless, at this point he's already made up a tremendous amount of ground in a state supposedly tailor-made for Clinton, and where the party machinery was at work against him.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[BlooInBloo]

1. Soooo many Americans that Clinton supporters hate.

[Hope And Change]

4. Especially those Americans...

who don`t wear the American flag pin.

:sarcasm:

[democrattotheend]

2. I don't know. I have a bad feeling.

National tracking polls today were discouraging. I am afraid a lot of Democrats are worried he won't stand up to the Republican attack machine.

[EFerrari]

5. What do you think he's been standing up to so far?

:crazy:

[tishaLA]

8. national doesn't matter right now

and when he gets the nomination sewn up, his numbers are going to rise about 8% against McSame. Bet on it.

[democrattotheend]

12. It's useful for tracking movement

Which is relevant given the large percentage of undecideds in PA right now.

[tishaLA]

14. sorry I meant to add to my post

but I hit post before I should have. I don't know that PA, which has been focusing more intensely on the race than the rest of the nation, will be following the national trends. Usually, states where the primaries take place, especially when so much attention has been paid to them, are little pressure cookers that have little relation to the outside world.

I don't know how Obama's campaign in PA has changed since the debate, but all signs last week pointed to the campaign appearing to know something that we didn't, which is why they increased the ad buy for the last week and scheduled this whistle-stop tour of the state.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

18. yeah, PA hasn't been exactly following the national curve so far.

Here's hoping he's climbing straight through Tuesday night when polls close (and beyond).

[PoliticalAmazon]

10. No worries. Pat Buchanan had interesting insight...

...He said that since Obama has established a pattern of NOT attacking and NOT sinking to Rove tactics, and especially since Hillary suffers far more damage to herself, and Obama usually ends up profiting from HIllary's Rove tactics, that the GOP is nonplussed about how to run against Obama. They won't be able to use their usual style of sound-byte politics because of the threat of blowback.

For the record, I don't agree with the majority of Buchnan's opinions, but I think he is a very good interviewer (he always comes to the table prepared, he doesn't interrupt, and he asks very good questions) and does not follow a party line (he is strongly against the Iraq invasion and occupation, and makes no secret of it). So I think he has personal integrity, even though his opinions don't jive with mine.

[Cant trust em]

11. Some RW strategist was talking about Obama's X factor

You know that Clinton is going to pull at least 45% of the vote, but will never get more than 55%. Obama could pull 60%, but on the other hand he could bomb and get 40%. You don't really know.

[Voice for Peace]

16. I think he could get 70 or 80. Seriously.

Whatever percentage is sick of Bush, I think Obama can get all of them, if they vote.

[cliffordu]

3. I think she's on the way out.....!!

:applause:

:woohoo:

[NJmaverick]

6. If Obama keeps it under 10% he has won

[Cant trust em]

7. Yup. It just shows that he can go anywhere and pick up points

A year ago he was 30 points down in every poll.

[NJmaverick]

9. Yeah that is a very impressive point swing and

I believe that if he keeps it under 10 the SDs will step in and shut Camp Clinton down. Put out the fires, take down the tents and tell them to hit the road.

[Scurrilous]

13. K & R

:thumbsup:

[FrenchieCat]

15. wow......

[apocalypsehow]

17. If Senator Obama keeps it under ten, it's a tie. If he gets it within five, it's effectively a "win"

in the sense that HRC's claims to have some kind of mystical hold on rural & white working class voters will have been thoroughly debunked.

:thumbsup: