**OFFICIAL PENNSYLVANIA PREDICTION THREAD**

[XemaSab]

What's your prediction for Pennsylvania? :shrug:

I think Hillary's going to win it by 8 points (54 to 46), spin it as a hugh comeback, and stay in the race, despite the fact that she'll only net about 22 delegates and she'll still be about 114 delegates behind.

(This would increase her "must win" margin to 65% versus her current 62% in order to pull even with Obama before the convention, not counting superdelegates. This would also, ironically, lower Obama's "must win" percent to 43% in order to secure enough delegates for the nomination.)

What do you guys think? :shrug:

[Zachstar]

1. Clinton by 2

[SaveAmerica]

35. I second Clinton by 2, Obama by 2 would be nice

[Zachstar]

42. It would likely mean he walks away with more delegates.

[TLM]

101. I think you nailed it....

I think Clinton may still win, but by a tiny margin.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

2. Hillary within 5 points.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

84. remember the media will portray it as a big comeback

and the voters who don't follow politics will think that she still has a chance (when she hasn't)

[Starbucks Anarchist]

85. That reminds me of an article I read on DU.

I think it was referring to the PA primary, and a 50-something woman who worked at Wal-Mart (ironically), didn't know about the math Hillary needed to win the nomination.

She actually thought the calls trying to force Hillary out was because of sexism. :eyes:

[slick8790]

A cook report analysis a few weeks ago

showed that they predicted pledged delegates breaking somewhere along the lines of 103-100 in favor of hillary, with the at-large delegates left unallocated, since they didn't make an overall pop. vote prediction.

[Coexist]

3. Clinton by 9

[ZinZen]

98. I agree with you, by 9

but her delegate lead will be about 8-10. Not enough for a knockout punch that she wants for Obama. She is too far behind in the pledges delegates to win this thing. But hey, prove me wrong.

[guyanakoolaid]

4. Obama by 2

[TwilightGardener]

5. I agree with you,actually--Hillary by eight. That's just what I was thinking.

That's a lot less than what she needs to start catching up in delegates and proclaim some sort of "big mo", so I'm fine with it.

[not_too_L8]

6. Clinton by 5

[psychmommy]

119. i love that quote,

i saw it painted on the side of a school in ochos rios, jamaica. also the one in my sig line. i was debating over which to use.
i say hillary by 5. which still makes her a loser!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111

[scheming daemons]

7. Clinton 50.9%.... Obama 48.3%..... other 0.8%

I like to make my predictions specific.

[fascisthunter]

8. Hillary Doesn't Do As Well as She Hoped and Drops Out

ahhhhh... if only she cared about the Democratic Party.

[democrattotheend]

9. Clinton by 16

But I really hope I am wrong. I just have a bad feeling. My grandmother lives in PA and she thinks the debate might have hurt him. And the Gallup tracking today made me anxious.

[scheming daemons]

13. You will be pleasantly surprised...... a 75-25 win in Philly with large turnout there will make it

close

[democrattotheend]

25. I don't think he's going to get that big of a margin in Philly

I canvassed 2 middle class Italian neighborhoods last weekend, and there were only a few Obama supporters, more Clinton supporters, and a lot of undecideds. Another canvasser in our group canvassed a Latino neighborhood in North Philly and it was mostly Clinton, though her support was softer than we might have expected. And then there's the Northeast, which is pretty much Clinton Country. And is it possible that Nutter could help her make inroads with African Americans?

[scheming daemons]

28. Your last sentence is false.... badly.....

He'll get 90-10 among the AA's in Philly.

[Secret_Society]

27. That might very well happen...

but recent poll that was posted on DU broke it down by area and Philly and the suburbs was surprisingly close

[scheming daemons]

30. It's close in the suburbs.... but not in the city....

[Zachstar]

26. I knew your name sounded familiar

Are you not the same one who expresses fear before every contest?

And don't get anxious and stressed over the race. If he loses PA he will make up and surpass by May 6

[democrattotheend]

37. Yes, I am paranoid. And I was DEAD ON last time

We took bets in my office, and I said Obama would lose Ohio by 12 points and Texas (popular vote) by 5. So I underestimated him by 2 points in Ohio and 1 point in Texas, when most people thought Ohio would be a lot closer and he would win Texas.

To be fair, I also got nervous about Wisconsin. But I don't think anyone expected that to be such a blowout. They had same day registration, which made a BIG difference for Obama. Plus he had the governor's support there, so that probably gave him a few points in terms of ground game.

[Zachstar]

48. Then stop predicting!!

[RBInMaine]

61. Rasmussen has it within 3 points today.

[hogwyld]

10. Clinton by 12

I think some of the polling is reflecting the "Bradley effect" plus I think some of the late breakers will feel safer with the status quo than they would be with change.

[msallied]

I predict she'll not only win by about 8 percentage points

But she will also continue to parrot (along with the media) that she won Texas.

[anonymous171]

11. Hillary win by 5-8 points.

[Avalux]

12. "Too close to call" until the very end; Obama wins by less than 2%.

I think Philly and Western PA will do it for him. :hi:

[democrattotheend]

29. I thought Western PA was Clinton Country

I'd love to believe you but I am afraid it is going to be a Clinton blowout.

[scheming daemons]

45. Um.... Allegheny county will be AT WORST 50-50... prob 55-45 for Obama....

[Rob Gregory Browne]

14. Obama squeaker. nt

[Secret_Society]

15. Hillary by 10-12

If less it's a major disappointment but any victory can be spun as a victory against the massive spending by the Obama campaign.

[Auntie Bush]

65. Welcome to DU, S_S

:hi:

[wisteria]

134. She seems to be doing alright with the "little bit" of money she is suppose to have.

I see and hear more of her ads than Obama's in Pa. Where are her latest numbers and who has been contributing?

[onehandle]

16. Edwards by 20.

He got the Colbert bump.

[Secret_Society]

22. I like the sound of that!

[book_worm]

17. Anything under double digits is a loss for Clinton. She won Ohio by 10 and only got a few more

delegates more than Obama.

[democrattotheend]

Delegates don't matter that much at this point

Everyone knows Obama will go into the convention with more pledged delegates. What matters is the media narrative, momentum, and the popular vote.

[lazer47]

18. Why do all of these replies look like football point spreads...

and just about as accurate

[Amy6627]

19. I heard yesterday on ABC radio news, it was a statistical deadheat. n/t

[backscatter712]

20. Clinton by 3-8 points.

She'll succeed in getting the Archie Bunker voters she was working so hard to cultivate. She won't get much of anyone else though - she's pretty much alienated anyone who doesn't respond positively to dog whistles.

I'll consider any result with either an Obama win or a Clinton win by less than 18 points to be a victory - that means the delegate math will be even worse for her than it already is.

[cliffordu]

21. Obama by 3

NONE of the pollsters have talked to the cell-phone crowd.

The newly registered/young voters all have cell phones, as far as I can see.

This could be a blowout in ways the pundits cannot figure.....


Just sayin'




:shrug:

[grantcart]

79. Lets start with the basic - the pollsters are clearly stumped

Also there is another demogaphic that they will overlook - besides young and cell phone voters - those on the fence or who are Clinton supporters who still are on the fence or support Clinton but want to end the primary so we can start fighting McCain.

Nearly 70% of the democrats in PA believe that Obama will win.

For that reason I am with you Clifford - Obama by 3

[Dbdmjs1022]

107. Obama by 3.

[IamyourTVandIownyou]

118. Obama by 3 - Public Policy Polling spread

PPP (D) 04/14 - 04/15 1095 LV 42 45 Obama +3.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls

PDF:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_041608.pdf

[eridani]

143. Undecideds have been breaking for the familiar Clinton

Clinton by 5.

[Dhalgren]

23. A corporate-backed candidate will win the

Penn. primary! Take it to the bank! (One of THEIR banks, of course...)

[Leopolds Ghost]

89. Cash or charge? :-)

[Milo_Bloom]

24. Clinton 51, Obama 46, other 3

[high density]

31. Clinton by 20

Then I can be happy when it's half that.

[stillcool]

44. that's my thinking...

I'll stay with the predictions of a blow out..and watch what happens.

[RBInMaine]

62. If he can hold her to single digits she is in BIG TROUBLE.

[RBInMaine]

63. He holds her to single digits.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

4-6 % in favor of Hillary

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

32. My predictions.

Hillary Clinton will fail to reach the 102% she'll need to tie Obama in pledged delegates.

Hillary Clinton will fail to beat Obama by the 30% she'll need to be on track to tie Obama in pledged delegates, assuming the same win in other states.

Hillary Clinton will fail to beat Obama by 20%.

And delegate victory Hillary Clinton will gain on Tuesday will be erased2 within a week by superdelegates pledging for Obama.

[Major Hogwash]

33. A tie!

Just to keep this shitfest going for another few months!

[tandem5]

34. Clinton by 18

[Lucky 13]

94. really?

[tandem5]

104. yup.

[lojasmo]

36. Clinton by two. Obama leads delegates. EOM

[yourguide]

38. Clinton by a bitter 6

[phrigndumass]

43. I'm with you (Clinton +6) ... and she'll only net about 120,000 votes ...

... which would still leave her behind by about 650,000.

[SaveAmerica]

39. I predict America will win...

[BlooInBloo]

40. Clinton by 12. Solid, but not solid enough to stay in the "race".

[Swamp Rat]

41. OBAMA IN A LANDSLIDE VICTORY!!! ... HE'S GOT WHAT VOTERS CRAVE!!!

He's got electrolytes! :D

[Leopolds Ghost]

90. How do you know? I think plants need water

I bet if you talked to any plants here on DU, they'd go for Hillary.

[Swamp Rat]

102. Joe Bauer, wassup?

:D

[ClayZ]

108. I'm with you SwampRat. Obama by a LANDSLIDE!

[crankychatter]

46. This weekend Bush will "Precision Bomb" targets in Iran

It will be all over the news Monday

Clinton's hawkish, out of the blue, pronouncements regarding Iran at the debate, will sway undecideds

She'll have a fairly good show in PA

This will be deemed "momentum" by the MIC backed Media... and it will be "Obama has ties to Hamas" 24-7 until August.

this is no crazier than any other prediction

[JBoy]

109. You just made me look for my hat.

:tinfoilhat:

[scheming daemons]

47. Obama 48%.... Clinton 46%.... Diebold (therefore Clinton) 6%... Result: HRC 52%, Obama 48%

...

[4_Legs_Good]

49. Clinton 56 Obama 44, so Clinton by 12 points

And I agree with all your post win spin by the Clinton team.

I'd still call anything less than a 20 point win as nothing for Obama to worry about. If he could somehow close to below 10%, I'd consider it a "win" for Obama. That's not to say it's not an actual WIN for Clinton, it's just to show that he made up ground and didn't lose as badly as expected in a very Clinton state.

His delegate lead will look vulnerable for about 20 minutes, and then SDs will continue to trickle in and it'll be clear he's still the nominee. The clinton team will IMMEDIATELY start pushing "Popular vote" left and right because they'll make up about 200,000 votes.

I'm pretty sure I'm right here, so mark this.

David

[goldcanyonaz]

50. Clinton 57 Obama 43.

[TankLV]

51. Clinlton by 8 to 10...

but the obamababies will see it as a victory even when they lose big - again...

[Warren Stupidity]

52. Small Clinton victory

not nearly enough to change the outcome of the race, but enough for her zombie campaign to continue to divide and destroy.

[Phoonzang]

53. Clinton by enough that she's not going to drop out

n/t

[rucky]

54. Hillary by 10.

What do we win if we're right?

[underpants]

55. Cafferty on CNN just said "8-10%" if Hillary wants to stay in the race

the goalpost has been sucessfully moved

[zulchzulu]

56. Obama by 2% with 85 delegates

Coming from a 20+% deficit in the polls, it should be a pretty big nail in the Clinton campaign.

[slinkerwink]

57. I think Clinton will win by 12 or 14 points. Look at number of undecideds in each Pa poll.

They've usually broken her way in the past primaries.

[scheming daemons]

66. They didn't break her way in Wisconsin..... or many other states...

[Bonobo]

58. Clinton by 6.

[Marnieworld]

59. I got the over/under at 7 for Clinton

And it will be Too Close to Call until 11:17 pm EASTERN.

What do we win? :D

[taught_me_patience]

60. C 57 - O 43

I'm not getting my hopes up. The late deciders will break for Hillary. She will keep her campaign going until she loses by 20% in North Carolina.

[AtomicKitten]

64. Penn is a crapshoot but it appears Obama will take No. Carolina and Indiana.

Game over.

[slackmaster]

67. 2-kilometer-wide asteroid crashes near Kunkeltown

Eastern 2/3 of the state plus half of New Jersey wiped off the map.

[Leopolds Ghost]

95. Resulting in a Clinton win. n/t

[LSK]

68. Obama by 856 votes and the count will go late late late

[XemaSab]

72. .

:thumbsup:

[undeterred]

69. Obama by 5, Hillary will jump off the liberty bell for attention.

The superdelegates will all declare for Obama, and Hillary will stay in the race, on crutches, whining and crying for 9 more weeks.

[madrchsod]

70. clinton by 6pts or less

[dchill]

71. Obama by 2%

;)

[XemaSab]

73. Saturday kick!

:D

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

74. Hillary by 19

The Pennsylvania Machine is well oiled.

[TheDoorbellRang]

75. Clinton by 4. 52-48%

We'll see, I guess. Can hardly wait for Tuesday.

[PBS Poll-435]

76. .

Dupe

[PBS Poll-435]

77. Clinton 60.2 Obama 38.4

[rhombus]

78. Hillary by 13 points (56-43)

Undecideds usually break for the safe candidate in this race. By default like in Ohio, it's Hillary Clinton.

[stillcool]

80. I'll stick to the predictions of 20+

and watch what happens. After all it is Hillary Country, and she's got it all sewn up.

[rocktivity]

81. The margin will be under 5 points (52.5-47.5), giving Obama the moral and mathematical victory

whether he wins or not.

Hillary needs 85% of the vote for a "big" win, 65% of the vote for a "real" win, and 55% of the vote to keep her hanging on. And she'll have to do that in all ten of the remaining contests, not just PA.

:headbang:
rocknation

[tekisui]

82. Hill by 6. Best Part-The media does NOT call her the Comback Kid.

The narrative changes for good. Hillary doesn't have the support to take it to the COnvention.

[Hawkeye-X]

83. Obama by 12%

Oh wait, this isn't NC yet? My bad. Obama by 1.1%

Hawkeye-X checking in from NY

[ORDem]

86. Obama by 1. Watched the pledged delegates count closely, he is only 211 away

from grabbing the majority of them. Hillary's going to have to win BIG in the next few primaries to counter that and it ain't gonna happen. Once he hits that mark, the SDs will flock to him.

:dem:

[Unsane]

87. Clinton by 10

[mikiturner]

88. Clinton by 9

Clinton 54
Obama 45

[slinkerwink]

91. Clinton wins by 12 to 14 points.

[dana_b]

92. Clinton by 3

a "squeak" win. Then this bloody thing will continue through the last damn primary.... I'm feeling a little pessimistic today.

[Lucky 13]

93. Obama by 3

[last_texas_dem]

96. Clinton 52 Obama 47 Other 1

On Edit: My original numbers added up to more than 100-percent... haha

[Aloha Spirit]

97. Clinton 84 / Obama 74 (delegate count)

[quakerboy]

99. HRC by 5 and a portion.

And have huge momentum with her die hard supporters, who will go a bit nuts here on DU. The Troll Hillary "supporters" will go 4 x as nuts, and DU will be even more of a Zoo. Many people will be Ts'd and Reencarnated in rapid fashion. Things will continue on much as they have been, Obama winning what he needs to, Hillary making a stink, and questionable judgment will abound among those who are not into really thinking about things.

[bigwillq]

100. A democrat will win the democratic primary!

YAY! :bounce:

[Alexander]

103. Clinton 52%, Obama 48%. She'll barely win, and it won't be enough to save her campaign.

I predict a Clinton-style "Gettysburg Address" where after narrowly saving her campaign in Pennsylvania, she drops out and wholeheartedly endorses Obama.

Hopefully I'm right.

[XemaSab]

105. Late evening kick

:P

[thewiseguy]

110. How can she net 22 delegates with an 8 point win?

She won Ohio by 10 points and gained 9 delegates there. Ohio and Pennsylvania have roughly the same delegates.

You may want to revisit the math again.

[XemaSab]

111. That was a totally random estimate based on percents

Precincts count insofar as the math goes, but I was giving her the benefit of the doubt.

[thewiseguy]

112. If we go by % an 8 point win would give her 14-15 delegates

Since Obama is likely to do well in cities, her net delegate gain might be even smaller.

[XemaSab]

116. At any rate

She's in a world of hurt if she wins by such a small margin.

[XemaSab]

121. Truer words were never spoken

:P

[Thepricebreaker]

106. Clinton wins enough to stay in the race... in her eyes...

[demwing]

113. I called it 3 days ago - Obama by 2

If I have to eat my words, so be it. :) The more Hillary spends on PA, the less she has for anywhere else, and then Obama closes May out in a with a solid sweep.

Still, I argue for an Obama win here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5551793&mesg_id=5551793

and stand by it today.

[Honeycombe8]

114. Your prediction sounds about right. I think I'll agree to that one! nt

[DerekJ]

115. C 52: O: 47

[pettypace]

117. There will be a lot of anti-Obama votes

Can you imagine the tally if it was John Edwards instead of Hill - it would be 25 point loss easily.

[DerekJ]

120. kick

[XemaSab]

122. Kick

:D

[XemaSab]

123. Kick

:P

[XemaSab]

124. Kick for teh official thread

:P

[nomorewhopper]

125. clinton by 10

hope obama destroys her

hops she drops out

but i'm not holding my breath

[XemaSab]

126. Another kick

:P

[Mezzo]

127. Obama needs to show he can win a big swing state. I predict BO +7. nt

[spinbaby]

128. Obama by a hair

But HIllary will point out that he outspent her three to one and that proves he can't win big states.

[Colobo]

129. Clinton 54%, Obama 46%

[gauguin57]

130. I agree with those who predict Hillary in the 5-8 point range.

We shall see.

[bushmeister0]

131. I'm thinking they both need a big turnout in Philly. Local elections means more here.

Judging by the white, physically able, knuckleheads in my little part of Philly; they're much more concerned about getting their disablilty checks and scoring ghost positions at construction sites. Oh, and hanging out in front of the local bar on the corner (starting at 11 AM) than they are about Hillary or Obama.

I walk past the bar everyday on my way to work and I haven't heard a single peep out of any of them about the election.

No doubt, the union bosses will be out to gather them up before they get too wasted and shuffle them off three blocks away to vote, but they're marching orders are to vote for John Dougherty above all. Vince Fumo is out, we need another good Democratic crook in there to keep the good times rolling.

Neither Barack or Hillary promised to keep the welfare checks coming. Although, if either one of them can quickly get an ad on TV saying they only drink Miller Lite, that could really change things.

I'm thinking a lot of folks here won't even bother to vote, so whichever side has the most fanatic supporters will win in Philly.

In my neighborhood, I have not seen one Hillary sign the entire time. The Obamaites are everywhere.

[tekisui]

133. 8 million expected, historical numbers for a primary.

[wisteria]

132. I think Pa will surprise everyone and go for Obama in the end.

Obama 51 Clinton 49

[WillyT]

135. Obama By 3 !!!

:scared:

:beer:

:smoke:

[yellowcanine]

136. Obama 52, Clinton 48. Turnout is key in the Keystone State.

[bklyncowgirl]

137. Clinton by 5-10 points maybe more

My heart says Obama. My head says Clinton.

[stevenleser]

138. Hillary 52 Obama 46 I did have it 54-44 but I think Hillary's Osama ad will hurt her

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5610868

I think this will turn off those who see it. I only wish it were released two days ago. That would have given Barack the win.

[PseudoIntellect]

139. I'm going pessimistic compared to the 5.9% in the RCP average. Clinton +9%.

54-45

[Secret_Society]

140. Clinton by 12

late deciders have broken for her

[Rockholm]

141. Clinton by 22 points.

[panAmerican]

142. Bracing for Clinton +15; Hoping like crazy for Obama +5

[XemaSab]

144. kick

again