http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080418/D904FO280.htmlAnalysis: Time, delegate math working against Clinton By DAVID ESPO
WASHINGTON (AP) - Time is running out on Hillary Rodham Clinton, the long-ago front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination who now trails Barack Obama in delegates, states won and popular votes.
Compounding Clinton's woes, Obama appears on track to finish the primary campaign fewer than 100 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to win.
Clinton argues to Democratic officialdom that other factors should count, an unprovable assertion that she's more electable chief among them. But she undercut her own claim in Wednesday night's debate, answering "yes, yes, yes" when asked whether her rival could win the White House.
There's little if any public evidence the party's elite, the superdelegates who will attend the convention, are buying her argument anyway.
In the days since the surfacing of Obama's worst gaffe of the campaign - an observation that small town Americans are bitter folk who cling to religion and guns out of frustration - he has gained six convention superdelegates, to two for Clinton.
"I investigated and studied the context of the whole speech," said one of the six, Reggie Whitten of Oklahoma, who told Obama on Tuesday he would support him. "I think the comment was to some extent taken out of context and blown up, but I can tell you I think people in small towns have a lot of reason to be bitter," added Whitten, who grew up in Seminole, a town of 6,700.
Clinton leads in Pennsylvania polls in advance of Tuesday's primary there, with 158 convention delegates at stake. A victory is essential to her chances of winning the nomination, but far from sufficient. Instead, a triumph of any magnitude would instantly establish Indiana on May 6 as her next must-win state, particularly since her aides have privately signaled that defeat is likely in North Carolina on the same day.
Overall, Obama's delegate lead is 1,645-1,505. That masks an even larger advantage among those won in primaries and caucuses. There, his advantage is 1,414-1,250.
An additional 566 are at stake in the remaining contests in eight states, Guam and Puerto Rico before the primary season ends on June 3.
If Obama captures 53 percent of them, which is the share he has gained in contests to date, he would close out the primary season with at least 1,945 delegates, only 80 less than the total needed to clinch the nomination. If he and Clinton split the 566 evenly, he would still be within 100 of the number needed.
Clinton needs to win a forbidding 65 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries to draw even with Obama in pledged delegates. It's a share she has achieved only once so far, in Arkansas, where her husband was governor for more than a decade.
Given the unyielding delegate math, Clinton has relied for weeks on forbearance from party leaders to sustain her challenge. And they are growing restless, eager for the epic nomination battle to end so Democrats can unify for the fall campaign against John McCain and the Republicans.
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