THE MATH Update - Illustrated Projections Based on Polls: Total Delegates and “Popular” Votes

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Update - Illustrated Projections Based on Polls: Total Delegates and “Popular” Votes




Based on the latest polls for each upcoming contest, this first chart shows total projected delegates for each candidate. The current difference in delegates is 152.0. The projected totals, based on polls, show a difference from today of only two delegates:
Senator Obama – 1,938.5 (+150.0)
Senator Clinton – 1,788.5



This second chart shows the number of superdelegates needed to keep the other candidate from reaching the nomination total of 2,024 delegates, based on the projections above. This is each candidate’s “Huckabee Index” (Obama – 66; Clinton – 216).



This last chart shows the current “popular” votes and projected “popular” votes for each candidate, based on the latest polls. A turnout-by-population percentage for each state was calculated based on each state’s 2007 population, and each state’s history of a heavy democratic primary voter participation.

To illustrate Pennsylvania:
2007 Population – 12,432,792
Average turnout in 2008 for Democratic Primaries: 13.2%
Previous turnout when race was still not decided: 10.0% (1992)
Projected heavy turnout for Pennsylvania: 17.0%
Total projected Pennsylvania voters: 12,432,792 x 17.0% = 2,113,575
Latest Poll: Clinton +3 (51.5% to 48.5%)
Projected votes in Pennsylvania for Senator Obama: 2,113,575 x 48.5% = 1,025,084
Projected votes in Pennsylvania for Senator Clinton: 2,113,575 x 51.5% = 1,088,491


**************************************************************************


Sources:
Superdelegates (highest reported for each)
Pledged Delegates
Popular Vote
Projections and Charts (spreadsheet)
State Populations 2007

Latest Polls:
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Indiana
West Virginia
Oregon
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
South Dakota


:dunce:


.

[phrigndumass]

1. Permission granted to use this information here on DU and anywhere on the internet

I am granting permission for anyone to use the information in the original post of this thread, in whole or in part, here on DU and anywhere on the internet.

[ORDem]

48. Would be sweet if you'd add one more chart: Pledged delegates (only) projection

I'd like to see when Barack is projected to hit 1,627 pledged delegates, giving him the majority of PDs. That's the tipping point in my opinion.

:dem:

[phrigndumass]

59. Good idea ... in the meantime, here's the data for it

PROJECTED END-RESULTS OF PRIMARIES BASED ON POLLS:

Projected Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,700.5 (74 above HALF)
Hillary Clinton – 1,534.5 (92 below HALF)

I believe it would happen in NC/IN.

:D

[phrigndumass]

2. Link to my journal for historical data

Here's a link to my journal to review the data in past posts for THE MATH:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

[phrigndumass]

27. lunch bump

[phrigndumass]

41. Evening bump. CNN is doing a special tonight on Pennsylvania.

Hopefully they'll have some coverage of Senator Obama's rally.

I think it starts at 10:00, so watch if you can.

[Zachstar]

3. Ah good some math!!

Ah just what I suspected.

WV and KY are nowhere near enough at current rates to push Clinton very far up.

And this is BEFORE the effects of Screw Em Gate and MoveOnGate and more importantly BEFORE the effects of Obama effectively Campaigning in those states.

He turned a Clinton Firewall in PA into a possible win! And those are not firewalls!


So overall it is REALLY looking like Obama is going to win this thing. He survived the wright deal and turned bittergate back on Clinton!

He is going to win.

[phrigndumass]

4. Yes ... The populations of West Virginia and Kentucky are much lower than ...

... Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and so are the number of pledged delegates.

After Pennsylvania, 90% of the primary season is over.

:D

[Zachstar]

5. A few points I would like to make Clear.

There was a reason PA has been touted as the state to save the Clinton Campaign for awhile now.

She had a HUGE lead in the polls for months and on top of that it is a firewall state of 187 delegates. Meaning if Clinton wins it by 20 she will pick up a large amount of delegates.

But that likely will not happen now. Obama pulled in a crowd of over 35 thousand for a historic speech in Philly yesterday. He is going on a wonderful train trip through the heart of PA today after a couple of GREAT town hall meetings yesterday.

Now to be on the safe side I want to take into account a Clinton net gain of 10 delegates from PA. (A research topic earlier said 8 to be on the safe side)

She is going to go into May that has two states with multiple Polls claiming serious Clinton leads. States that have been thrown out there with the saying again that they will save the Clinton Campaign.

They won't

The west Virginia primary has a total of 28 delegates at play. And Obama has not done major campaigning there yet. So only a MAJOR MAJOR MAJOR win there can net her a dent on Obama's delegate lead.

The Kentucky primary is the other being talked about. It has 51 at play. Which could put a serious dent in Obama's delegate lead if somehow the polls move higher for Clinton. They wont because it is on the 20th meaning Obama has almost a month to play ads and go to town hall meetings and rallies.

So Clinton is just not going to be able to put a serious dent the pledged delegate lead without a giant win in PA.

[phrigndumass]

6. Right again ... Here are my projections for KY and WV:

Based on polls ... And North Carolina alone will cancel these out.

West Virginia (Clinton +28)
Delegates:
Obama - 11
Clinton - 17 (+6)
Turnout: 217,444 voters
"Popular" Vote:
Obama - 78,280
Clinton - 139,164 (+60,884)

Kentucky (Clinton +36)
Delegates:
Obama - 17
Clinton - 34 (+17)
Turnout: 508,977 voters
"Popular" Vote:
Obama - 162,873
Clinton - 346,104 (+183,232)

Then there's North Carolina (Obama +15):
Delegates:
Obama - 67 (+19)
Clinton - 48
Turnout: 1,087,324 voters
"Popular" Vote:
Obama - 625,211 (+163,099)
Clinton - 462,113

[Zachstar]

7. Woah the delegate gain from those two states for Clinton is even worse than I thought.

Kentucky will hurt if it was run tomorrow. However, Once Obama has a chance to seriously campaign there. He will lower that gain much further.

I say Clinton gains less than 10 delegates from Kentucky which is easily canceled out by what will be quite a large win for Obama in Oregon.

[phrigndumass]

10. Yep ... Everywhere he goes, Senator Obama gains in votes

:toast:

[davidpdx]

8. I predicted a few days ago, just on intuition

that the pledged delegate count was going to essentially be split. I read your posts pretty often and you spell it out clearly in terms of the numbers.

[phrigndumass]

9. With 85% of the primary season over, it's relatively simple to project end-results ...

... with some sense of accuracy, without needing to look at the numbers. Your intuition is working!

Thanks for the compliment as well.

:hi:

[Snarkoleptic]

11. Good stuff Maynard- Thanks for posting!

[phrigndumass]

12. Thanks Snarkoleptic! (history of "good stuff maynard")

:hi:

tidbit:
Where "Good stuff, Maynard" came from

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

<Snip>

The boy, naturally, tried to express his horror by giving his Malt-O-Meal to his imaginary friend Maynard. (Even the boy's choice in names for an imaginary friend is evidence of his background psychological problems. Most kids would pick a name like Ace or Neil Armstrong for an imaginary friend. But this boy picked a name you only give to a child if you want him to experience the joys of daily playground atomic wedgies.)

Instead of trying to simply force the kid to eat what will probably be his only meal of the day because the mother had been secretly skimming from her meager grocery allowance to create an escape fund, the father resorted to lies and deception to bend the child to his will. The father's skills had naturally been perfected over the years to hide his gambling and paid sex addictions from his wife, family, and co-workers. Did the father feel an ounce of remorse knowing he was now turning these "talents" towards his son? Probably not. The father, knowing the best lie is a lie that plays off and reinforces the lies other people tell themselves to maintain their sense of self-worth, addressed the boy's imaginary friend instead. With the bowl now before the imaginary friend, the father quiped "Good stuff, Maynard!"

The boy was convinced and dug into his slop. And they were one big happily family again until 1980 when the father tried to re-mortgage the house at a 20% interest rate, lost his job at US Steel, and then joined the Jim Jones cult, thinking some nutball religion would save his family.

<Snip>

:D

[grantcart]

31. lol love it

[KansasVoter]

13. I think Hillary wins PA by 12%....

I think the 3% poll is way low.

But what do I know? :-)

My worry now is popular vote. If Hillary wins it then I think she will get the nomination. I think the people will demand it.

if PA is under 10 we are good. Except damn Florida and Michigan will still be a factor.

Popular vote worries me.

[phrigndumass]

15. My projections if PA is Clinton +12

Delegates:
Senator Obama - 70
Senator Clinton - 88 (+18)

End-result for Delegates if PA +12 Clinton:
Senator Obama - 1,931.5 (+136.0)
Senator Clinton - 1,795.5

"Popular" Votes for Pennsylvania:
Senator Obama - 929,973
Senator Clinton - 1,183,602 (+253,629)

End-result for "Popular" Votes if PA +12 Clinton:
Senator Obama - 16,599,598 (+511,305)
Senator Clinton - 16,088,293

Senator Obama would need 73 superdelegates to win.
Senator Clinton would need 209 superdelegates to win.

:D

[KansasVoter]

14. Also, thanks for the update!! (eom)

[phrigndumass]

16. You're welcome

:hi:

[Zachstar]

17. Kick

:kick:

[Celebration]

18. Excellent n/t

[phrigndumass]

36. Thanks itsjustme!

:hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

19. You and those darned maths!

Good work!

[phrigndumass]

21. These math threads are just a cover for the humor found in the replies ...

... such as the history of the term, "good stuff, Maynard" (see upthread)

Or the best way to cook a baby so it can be eaten by Senator Obama on live television, thus resulting in a Clinton nomination, from a previous Math thread (see below):
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=132&topic_id=5079171

...

5081748, In short, Obama's almost clinched it.
Posted by backscatter712 on Fri Mar-14-08 05:04 PM
Short of Obama eating a baby live on CNN, there's no way he can lose - even in the worst case scenario, Hillary cannot catch up in delegates.

5081917, That's true
Posted by phrigndumass on Fri Mar-14-08 05:16 PM
Campaigns have this kind of information available to them. I used to do this kind of thing as a consultant for local democratic candidates, so I know for a fact that it's out there.
The difficulty is in helping someone see the bad news for their campaign when it's apparent they don't have a chance anymore, and allow them time to let it go. They've spent a huge amount of time and energy toward one goal, and they're extremely attached to that goal. Going through the stages is necessary, but Senator Clinton seems to be spending a disproportionate amount of time on the stage of Denial.
I like my babies with soy sauce. How 'bout you?
- Phrig

5093429, never with soy too salty
Posted by swampg8r on Sat Mar-15-08 10:55 AM
i take mine and let them air dry then i use
4 virgin island bay leaves
1/4 c of ginger root
3 garlic cloves
1 whole nutmeg
4 sprigs fresh thyme
1 1/2 tsp fresh cinnamon
2 Tbspns sesame oil
1/2 tsp allspice
and the juice of 2 limes about 1/4 cup
2 cleaned habanero peppers medium sized (clean wearing gloves for your protection)
put into a food processor and liquify
now completely coat the baby with the mixture inside and out
and slow roast over a small wood fire
now thats some good baby

5097762, ahh, but bay leaves can be poisonous ...
Posted by phrigndumass on Sat Mar-15-08 04:04 PM
... so you gotta make sure the baby is good and dead before you add the bay leaves. And instead of coating the baby with the sauce mixture, why not put the baby in the food processor with the ingredients? It'll make for an even taste throughout.
How about baby burgoo?

5110052, no you are missing the point
Posted by swampg8r on Sun Mar-16-08 01:56 PM
the babys already cleaned
i just left that out
i didnt want to offend the pro baby folks
its a play on a virgin islands jerk style bbq
its the bay leaf they grow there that makes this work so well
it has almost a mace flavor and smell

5110420, That definitely sounds like some great baby!
Posted by phrigndumass on Sun Mar-16-08 02:30 PM
:rofl:

[thevoiceofreason]

26. That is great!

[rucky]

20. If Hillary wins Guam by 249%

she could lock this up.

[phrigndumass]

23. Why is everyone downplaying the importance of Guam? (LOL)

Why do you all hate Guamanians???!!11!

[phrigndumass]

37. Where's the Guam love?

[phrigndumass]

38. mmmmmmm ... Guam-comole!

Guam-comole! Eat it up! Yum!

[mod mom]

22. Thank you for your efforts-it's appreciated phrigndumass! rec'd

[phrigndumass]

24. Thanks mod mom!

:hi:

[Buzz Clik]

25. Loves me the trends. Kick kick kick!

[grantcart]

28. Love the charts.

For those that can't read charts here are two hills which would be easier to climb, one is Obama's and one is Clinton's lol








Oh and its not over it could really happen really.

[phrigndumass]

33. That cliff is almost as big as this one

Who doesn't love Clifford the Big Red Dog? He's one big Cliff!

[Zachstar]

34. Looks about right!!

[Radio_Lady]

56. Grantcart, your cliff looks a little like the NH Old Man of the Mountain...

Could that image in the cliff be the Old Lady of the Mountain?

The one in NH collapsed a couple of years ago...



Anyway, thanks for the post.

:hi:

Radio Lady in Oregon

[grantcart]

29. This thread has numbers for PA

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5575980

[phrigndumass]

32. Very good, detailed info at that link!

Thanks for hooking us up!

[kid a]

30. I like viuals - these are great. Gives great perspective (actually see the forest)

And it is an Obama forest.

[phrigndumass]

35. Thanks! I'm used to seeing things in Matrix code ...

... sometimes I forget the advantages of a good visual.

"Obama forest" :D

[ORDem]

49. Well, yes, and no. If these graphs were zero-based there wouldn't be much

daylight between the lines. ;)

:dem:

[phrigndumass]

52. True. The second graph, however, is zero-based ...

and that's the most revealing of the three graphs, imho.

:hi:

[depakid]

39. "Based on the latest polls"

GIGO.

[phrigndumass]

40. Would you rather we use "gut feeling" instead of polls?

Or are you expressing frustration here because you felt frustration in another thread dealing with polls?

The polls may not end up being accurate, but they definitely provide a range for us mathy folks to work within. You should give my projections as much weight as you would give the polls used to arrive at the projections, yes. But if that to you is garbage, your expression of frustration and disdain at the results would be more helpful to me if you cited context and reasons rather than a drive-by "Polls? GIGO."

Hoping your frustration was only indirectly aimed my way.

:hi:

[depakid]

43. It's about the predictive accuracy of the model

Being a "sciency type," I enjoy analysis, and understand the limitations of the available data.

Only a simple criticism, only indirectly aimed your way- and one that's proven to have been on target in the past (truth is all's models from 2004).

[phrigndumass]

50. Gotcha. Thanks, and I agree. Here's some data without using polls

From last Monday's edition of THE MATH

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5493720

Hoping this appeals more to your sciency side.

:hi:

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 233 of 304, or 76.6% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 230 of 305, or 75.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 222 of 316, or 70.1% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 218 of 317, or 68.6% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 90 of 304, or 29.6% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 108 of 305, or 35.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 95 of 316, or 29.9% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 112 of 317, or 35.2% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 204 of 304, or 67.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 201 of 305, or 65.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 193 of 316, or 60.9% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 189 of 317, or 59.5% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 119 of 304, or 39.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 137 of 305, or 44.8% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 124 of 316, or 39.1% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 141 of 317, or 44.3% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

[TheDoorbellRang]

42. Oooh. I like the new projected delegates graph

I was kind of figuring they'd split the remaining 566 evenly and get 283 each -- which looks like what you've come up with, too, give or take a delegate.

Amazing how much more nitty gritty knowledge we have here thanks to you and other math dudes. I was just reading some political guru's Q & A site at WaPo and he was saying Edwards' 28 delegates were like super delegates that Edwards would point toward one candidate or the other. Some guru, huh?:crazy:

Thanks for the update! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

51. Thanks! I had to teach myself something new to be able to post charts

But the lesson was long overdue.

The rest of the contests, taken together, are a 50/50 horserace. It's crazy!

:hi:

[PBS Poll-435]

44. What happens when she wins by 7, 14, or 21 points?

Your "math" doesn't square with reality.

[phrigndumass]

53. Feel free to illustrate your point here in this thread.

It would be more useful here than a drive-by insult.

If you are speaking about hard delegate counts, in lieu of percentages, what about the law of averages?

I believe "you" sir, don't square with reality.

[Kittycat]

45. You should make up more charts - only like this...

Like ones with baskets full of apples, saying "Obama has X-apples, and Hillary has X-apples - who has the most apples?

Or bar charts that look like %'s of color crayons - with a full crayon on the side as a marker to almost there.

Better yet... a sucker chart that reads - "How many licks does it take to get to the center of the Tootsie Roll/Nomination".

That way the clinton supporters will understand (not all, just the CapHill & Hillisgoingtolose gang).

[madrchsod]

46. i like the crayon ones..

blinding them with numbers......

[phrigndumass]

55. Your wish is my command =)

Well, sorta ... Visual comparison of superdelegates needed by each candidate to win the nomination:

Senator Obama needs:


Senator Clinton needs:


:P

[HooptieWagon]

47. Hilliary supporters don't do graphs, either.

Don't see too many of them in this thread.
nice job! KnR

[phrigndumass]

54. Thanks HooptieWagon!

:hi:

[thewiseguy]

57. I wonder how Hillary supporters feel after seeing your charts

[phrigndumass]

60. They say my "math" doesn't square with reality

"their" reality, that is! (see upthread)

:hi:

[bhikkhu]

58. K&R - winning looks good!

[phrigndumass]

61. Thanks ... Hoping PA is less than 10!

:hi:

[Radio_Lady]

62. A couple of my friends are on board tonight. I sent them to your journal.

Two cousins and significant others from PA who had no trouble voting today.

Thanks for your hard work!

Radio Lady in Oregon

:hug: