Hillary by 12% in PA

[cali]

That's my prediction and I'm sticking with it. In the long run, I don't see her getting the nomination, but hoo boy, it sure will mean a lot more negative press about Obama, and increased negative attacks on him by the goddess of peace in the remaining contests.

What do I base my prediction on? The large number of undecideds in most polls, who I believe will go for Clinton, the similarities between PA and Ohio, the efficacy of Rendell's party machinery and the impact of Obama gaffes exploited by Clinton and the MSM. Also, racism. Exit polls in OH revealed that a significant number of white voters cited race as an important factor and voted for Hillary. There's no way to read that as anything but racism.

Hillary won't get a big delegate boost out of PA, under my scenario, but she will get momentum. Unfortunately for her, that momentum is too little too late.

[NightWatcher]

1. I'm predicting 9%. while a victory, not enough to chip into Obama's 170+/- delegate lead

then my fav part.....


Here Come the Superdelegates!!!

[SKKY]

2. If she wins, it won't be by the margin everyone thinks.

I could see this going +3 percent to either side.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Be a hero PA. End it!

End it!
End it!
End it!

[Medusa]

4. PA will be her swan song.

She knows she can't win the nomination. And even if she were to get the nomination by some miracle, she'd never win the GE because she's alienated at least half of the Democratic base. The sooner we get to PA, get it over with and move on and get this thing over with the better. I'm weary of seeing the extremes to which the Clinton's will go to. Bashing Move.On was the end of the line for me.

[cali]

5. I believe that either candidate can beat McCain.

And I believe that dems will back the nominee.

[0007]

6. I'm predicting Barack by 2%. He'll also rake in the super delegates.

Would this mean a curtsying is in order by hilary?

[Bensthename]

7. OBAMA by 20% in PA..

Why would they vote Hillary? :shrug:

[Lost-in-FL]

13. Why not?

People say a lot of things. They will tell a pollster that they will vote for Obama for whaever reason from wanting "to sound cool" or sound "progressive or non-racist" (not my arguments at all but what I have heard). Then they will go vote for Hillary. It happened already in a few states I believe.

[Bensthename]

22. I think the same thing could be said

about Hillary.. But actually I have no idea.. These primaries have been so crazy when trying to predict the outcome...

[Lost-in-FL]

28. I am not committed yet...

I am observing but would love for this mess to be over... really... OVER. This is turning off so many people. I am a very "political" person but I know others that just finally saw the light and who are normally apolitical. Those I am afraid are getting disgusted and who will potentially vote Democratic will stay home come November because if this mess. This is why i am mad about this process.

[Bensthename]

31. I hear yah.. Luckily the masses have short term memories only..

Who ever the nominee, as long as they get a few months to run against McCain, that should be enough hopefully. I am trying to view this as getting all the trash out before the GOP starts in with their bs, so their attacks will be old news. I hope that's right anyway.
Though McCain does have a clear advantage right now being able to collect money for his gen election campaign while the dems are still blowing their money on the preimaries.

[roseBudd]

8. Ohio was before Snipergate, it seems Snipergate has more resonance than bitter or Wright

[Bensthename]

10. I can't beleive ABC debate showed that person say " you lost my vote at sniper fire"..

I think you are right.. Her poll numbers never came back after she said that..

[roseBudd]

16. I think it is becuase it show's her pretending to be all that, & WTF there's video, is she an idiot?

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

9. I think you are spot on

I've been saying this exact thing to my husband for a week - it feels like Ohio.

[elocs]

11. Hey, will you be back on Wednesday to remind us all of how you did?

Win or lose, Obama will force this country to come to terms with its ugly underbelly of racism while so many Americans hold and nurture their prejudices as they proclaim the pretense of their colorblindness. Let's hope our country has grown up, but we cannot get past racism until we face it and deal with it.

[cali]

19. absolutely.

and though I wish Obama could force this country to come to terms with its racism, I don't see that happening.

[elocs]

41. I don't think Obama can force this country to come to terms with its racism either,

but it's a step in the right direction. Too many Americans still harbor the seeds of racism within themselves without recognizing it for what it is.

[davidpdx]

12. I still think 5-8%

it's going to be closer then you think because of all the blowback over how negative her campaign has been. I agree with you though about the outcome of the delegates, it will be so small of a boost it won't do her any good.

[rzemanfl]

14. Conventional wisdom is that undecideds break for the

underdog isn't it? I hope Pennsylvania has the good sense to end this battle on Tuesday.

[cboy4]

15. One thing is clear. It will be not 12%, but 100 %

a war zone in General Discussion: Primaries next week.

Bookmark this. lol

[cali]

17. how is that different from the rest of the time in GD-P?

OK, it's only normally a war zone here 97% of the time.

[Arkansas Granny]

25. I'll go along with that prediction.

I may go into a self imposed exile for a few days just to keep my sanity.

[Kber]

18. Sounds like reasonable expectations Cali. I'll buy 11 - 12%.

[SoFlaJet]

20. After just throwing 3.2 million democratic activists under the bus

what elected SD in their right mind would endorse her now cali? These congressman and women up for reelection are gonna need MoveOn. I wonder what our next course of action will be.

[cali]

21. Oh, I don't think Clinton's going to be able to win SDs in the numbers

she needs even if she does win PA decisively. But it would probably prevent a flood of SDs for Obama and buy her more time.

[SoFlaJet]

23. Question

can Clinton still win the vote and lose the delegate count in Pa? Like say a 48-45 win but because of where Obama is strongest that he can procure more delegates?

[cali]

26. In a word, yes.

she certainly could win the popular vote and still not win th3e most delegates.

[SoFlaJet]

30. I've been thinking that maybe

that's what will happen Tuesday

[Zachstar]

24. We have several prediction topics you can post stuff like this in

Why start another?

[cali]

27. Who are you? The DU thread police?

bugger off.

[Zachstar]

32. Calm down. Its just that this topic is not helping anything as it is covering good discussion topics

And there are like 3-4 prediction topics this would be better in.

[cali]

38. um, I'm hardly overly excited.

And sorry, I don't like people who think they should be able to dictate something like whether a prediction thread should be posted. It's hardly flamebait. And guess what? there are no prediction threads on the front page. You may not have noticed this, but GD-P is, by its nature, repetitive. Please take your carping elsewhere.

[madrchsod]

29. hillary -6 or less

[Lerkfish]

33. for some reason I see one of two things: Cinton by 2% or Obama by 5%

gut feeling.

[dansolo]

34. The difference between OH and PA

Hillary benefited from the muddled story about NAFTA right before the OH primary. With all that has recently gone on, I would expect the undecideds to swing towards Obama, because at this point, there should be no remaining doubt that he will be the nominee, so any true undecided would probably want this to end sooner rather than later. I expect Hillary to only win by single digits, if even that.

[Skwmom]

35. Racism? Team Clinton: Obama can't win b/c he is black, Obama can't win b/c he is black.

You vote and say that race was A FACTOR in your decision and you voted for Clinton B/C they convinced you that Obama cannot win b/c he is black - NOT because you are a racist.

But what's painting the working class as racists if it helps Clinton.

[BlooInBloo]

36. Clinton by less than 20 is an Obama win, unfortunately for her.

[slinkerwink]

37. You're right. Clinton will win by 12% because of the undecideds.

[scheming daemons]

39. Obama with 48%.... Clinton with 46%.... Diebold with 6%... which means: Clinton 52, Obama 48

[ProgressiveMuslim]

40. 35,000 turn out in the streets of Philly to hear Obama!

http://www.philly.com/philly/gallery/20080419_Obama_pushes_across_Pa_.html

[backscatter712]

42. SET THE EXPECTATIONS!!!

Personally, I think it will be closer than 12 points, but who knows?

Any Clinton victory by less than 30 points means she loses the war.

Make sure as many Obama fans as possible understand the math.

[HereSince1628]

43. I agree, but would add plus or minus 4%

Both candidates move forward in either case.

A 16% win would give Clinton cackling rights, but because of the apportionment of delegates, only a net increase of a dozen delegates...
That's enough to keep her in and hope for good things in Indiana.

An 8% loss by Obama still gives him enough delegates to make Clinton's run a lot more difficult.

[ZinZen]

44. 12% enhanced by the Limbaugh goons

otherwise I think she is going to win by 8 to 10%