Worst Case Scenario MATH for Obama in PA - Loses by 10.78%; Loses 17 Delegates

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Worst Case Scenario - PENNSYLVANIA:
WINNING CLINTON MARGINS:


SUSA
Clinton by 14
Plus Median Error Rate: Clinton by 16

QUINNIPIAC
Clinton by 6
Plus Median Error Rate: Clinton by 10.5

LATIMES
Clinton by 5
Plus Median Error Rate: Clinton by 11

ZOGBY
Clinton by 5
Plus Median Error Rate: Clinton by 10

RASMUSSEN
Clinton by 3
Plus Median Error Rate: Clinton by 10

STRATEGIC VISION
Clinton by 9
Plus Median Error Rate: Clinton by 14

PPP
Obama by 3
Less Median Error Rate: Clinton by 4

AVERAGE WORST CASE SCENARIO - CLINTON WINNING MARGIN: 10.78 %
On Edit: AVERAGE BEST CASE SCENARIO - ERROR RATE APPLIED IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION: CLINTON WINNING MARGIN: 5.5%



DELEGATES

Clinton Margin: 4
Clinton Delegate Gain: 6

Clinton Margin: 6
Clinton Delegate Gain: 10

Clinton Margin: 8
Clinton Delegate Gain: 12

Clinton Margin: 10
Clinton Delegate Gain: 16

Clinton Margin: 12
Clinton Delegate Gain: 18

Clinton Margin: 14
Clinton Delegate Gain: 22

Clinton Margin: 16
Clinton Delegate Gain: 26

Current Obama Delegate Lead: 141
LIKELY OUTCOME: 141 - 17 = 124




LINKS:
Using Delegate Calculator:
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/
Using Median Error Rates:

Using Latest Poll Numbers and Delegate Figures:
http://realclearpolitics.com

[Zachstar]

1. Thanks for the info!!

I just feel that he is going to be able to keep it 10 or below. I mean that support march had no connection to his campaign and just suddenly happened. It proves there is serious support for Obama in PA. And along with his train tour I think it is just going to work.

Tho I could be wrong. But I have hope.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. Hadn't heard of a support march

[Zachstar]

3. This

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x121213

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. OMG - that just gave me the chills ! You know what entered my

mind - what it would be like, on the streets, if Hillary somehow stole
the nomination away with party superdelegate votes.

I would give just about anything to be in Philly and experience all
of this.

Thanks Zachstar

[npincus]

4. does any of this polling reflect turnout?

HRC may have a larger share of lukewarm support, while Obama supporters are more likely to turnout. Of course, the same could be said for the opposite. So, the polls may give a sense of where it could go, but not where it will go. That is my own personal hope; Obama supporters show up in droves, HRC's not as much. If HRC has a blowout victory, that is very bad news, and bodes for the continuation of the destructive mess through August.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. You are right. Level of drive to turnout definitely matters. Each pollster has to

must assume a certain level of turnout? O's got to GOTV in Philly and Pittsburg.

That's why I probably need to stop wasting time, log in and make
some phone calls, huh.

[Armstead]

5. I hate to be stupid, but are you talking about Pennsylvania or nationally?

[Armstead]

6. Oops. looking at delegate count I realize it is Pa.

Nevermind.

[futureliveshere]

7. Thanks for the detailed post. I think BO will do better - 5-7 points down. Lets see!!!

[Bolo Boffin]

8. Math. It's super effective! n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. have to share my foreign press cartoon

[phrigndumass]

10. Will you marry me? =)

:loveya: :loveya: :loveya: :loveya: :loveya:

Even the range is liking teh Obama ...

VERY good work, LPYB!!! K/R

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. I will. I'd love to be Mrs. Phrigndumass. :>)

[phrigndumass]

18. LOL ... We'll have to do it on the downlow, my S.O. would have a fit

But since gay marriage isn't allowed yet in my state, you'd be my first legal spouse!

:party: :party: :party:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. I like your optimism "allowed YET" - Hope it happens soon ! nt

[Quixote1818]

13. Looks like SUSA is the pollster to pay attention to. nt

[helderheid]

14. Putting on my tinfoil hat

:tinfoilhat:

Unless the powers that be want a corporate candidate to win with much larger numbers. It's the machines... Keep your eyes on the exit polls (raw numbers).

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. I sure do wish they'd leak exit polls out like they used to ! Now

we never see anything. And I don't freakin trust any of them
when it's not transparent!

[helderheid]

17. Exactly.

:scared:

[ORDem]

20. KnR

:kick: