Which states do you think Dean could win?

[coloradodem2005]

Assuming he is the nominee.

My bets.
THe entire Northeast: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Conneticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, D.C. Pennsylvania.

The Midwest: Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, Minnesota.

The South: Florida if enough angry people get out and vote for him to spite Gov. Bush and chimpy. Maybe Louisiana, which may be the most liberal southern state, but this is a stretch.

The Southwest: New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona.

The west coast: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii.

[ferg]

1. sounds about right

Although I'd think Colorado, Ohio, and Missouri would be a stretch.

[coloradodem2005]

2. Not Ohio.

Bush lifted the Steel tarrifs in Ohio, and many people are or will be suffering for it. Dean (or any other Dem) could capitalize on this Bush move and take Ohio back for the Democrats.

[alcuno]

4. He was the one to put them on in the first place.

I have cousins in Ohio who tell me the economy totally sucks there.

[bearfartinthewoods]

26. i was hoping for this as an issue in PA too but there is a problem

since the steel industry's previous collapse, a lot of the former steel employees are now working in the secondary industries that make things from steel. the lifting of the tariffs reduces their costs of manufacturing which makes their products more competitive, globally. so while the lifting of tariffs sucks for the steel industry, it'
s good news for anyone that makes things from steel.

also i found a quinapeg (sp?) poll that said the issue was a wash.

[eileen from OH]

8. Ohio wouldn't be that much of one

Gore only lost it by a few points and that was AFTER he pulled out all ads and campaigning efforts. And since then we've had the repeal of the steel tariffs, massive unemployment,etc. The thing that lost OH to the Dems was NAFTA, NAFTA, NAFTA. If any candidate can make a credible case for renegotiating it, they could take Ohio.

eileen from OH

[Hawkeye-X]

9. Not Colorado either

Bush has attempted to drill the Rockies after ANWR efforts failed.

Also, it is the home of the Air Force Academy, and with the recent sex scandals, I think they aren't going to trust a Republican.

Owens is finished. He won't be able to garner one single Republican support from ANYWHERE once his own scandal is out on the open, thus forcing the fundies in Colorado Springs to sit at home in embarrassment. That is the MAIN reason why his wife is divorcing him. Owens is a friend of *, and has ruined the economy here by cutting everything except for his pet projects.

Hawkeye-X

[ludwigb]

21. I don't know....

Unless things have changed drastically since the last time I was there (about 6 months). Owens was pretty popular and right wing radio still rules the roost in Colorado. It will be tough to win outside of Denver/Boulder, but we'll have to give it our best effort.

[Hawkeye-X]

33. Well.. Owen's not very popular now

now that his wife is divorcing him (so much for the fundy votes), and there's Pueblo which is also a Democratic stronghold and we're working on getting Colorado Springs to sit at home in 2004.

Hawkeye-X

[Gretchen]

40. historically speaking, he HAS to carry Ohio

No one has won a presidential election in over 100 years and did not carry Ohio. Perhaps if he focuses on Ohio, everything else will fall in to place

[Unforgiven]

3. One's........

..with paper ballots counted by hand under supervision of an international organization.



Hey you asked! :)

[ButterflyBlood]

5. I'd say Arkansas is the most liberal southern state

and more likely than Louisiana.

[tedoll78]

6. What I think:

Dean wins pretty easily:
CA/WA/HI/IL/ME/NH/VT/MA/RI/CT/NY/NJ/MD/DE/DC/WI

Dean wins in a really close race:
OR/PA/MI/OH/IA/MN/WV/NM

(The NRA 'A' will help big-time.)

Dean loses all others. His campaign fakes an effort in:
FL/LA/AR/TN
This forces Bush to spend time and money there, rather than just having him camp-out in the midwest.

Bush sweeps the South resoundingly. Dean wins the states he wins by a smaller margin, so he ends-up losing the popular vote. The GOP tries to use lies/intimidation/violence/lawsuits to re-anoint the Chimp, but it doesn't work this time around.

[Leilani]

7. He doesn't have a prayer

in West Virginia.

I lived there, know the people, & they would laugh at Dean

New Hampshire & Colorado are doubtful.

Oregon, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania are debatable.

Remember Pennsylvania votes for Rick Santorum. Oregon & Iowa were really close last time, Minnesota just elected a Repug senator, etc.

[Hawkeye-X]

10. Uh-huh.

I've been to Meetups in Denver, and there are a lot of people in Dean's meetups and have garnered a LOT of support here.

Colorado happens to be one of the top 5 of Dean's fundraising states.

Hawkeye-X

[Nederland]

35. I live in Colorado too...

...and no Democrat has a chance here. Heck if Bill Clinton couldn't win the state against a hapless Bob Dole, no Democrat can win here.

[Hawkeye-X]

38. Trust me. Colorado is a swing state

Has went for Clinton twice in 1992, 1996.

We just need to suppress the GOTV efforts in Colorado Springs which is heavily Republican to remove the majority of the Repukes.

Hawkeye-X

[Nederland]

39. Trust is for the Gullible

I'll stick to proof and facts thank you, and so far you've offered none.

Colorado didn't go for Clinton in 1996, it went for Dole by a tight 1%. The 2000 election showed a further shift to the Republicans, with Bush winning the state by 8%. Obviously an 8 point spread is not small enough for anyone to label a state as a swing state.

Links:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE1996/pe1996CO.html
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2000/pe2000CO.html

[HFishbine]

14. Our mother, who art in heaven

I don't know how closely you were paying attention last time around, but Gore lost a lot of support in West Virginia because of how he was percieved on gun control. Of all the states the went to Bush last time, WV is the one most likely to flip to Dean.

You also neglect to consider the Nader factor. Not to suggest that every Nader vote would go dem this time, but a portion surely will and that means the margins by which Gore carried Oregon, Minnesota, and Iowa will be even greater for Dean and Nader voters put New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Minnesota back in play for dems.

[Leilani]

27. It's true about guns

Dean's stand on guns is very positive for W.Va, however, they are very pro-military. Per capita population, W.Va sends more people to the military than any other state.

W. Va is a funny state because they are very pro labor, pro union, but very pro military & conservative on social issues. Also, civil union bill will hurt him there.

[ButterflyBlood]

28. and why do they have so much military?

because they are so poor and the economy is so trashed they have no other choice. that's exactly the case with Jessica Lynch. And if they have the most soldiers per capita, they'd be the most pissed at * for sending them to that quagmire.

Aside from that Dean is hardly "anti-military" or an Al-qaeda sympathizer like those moronic pundits seem to think.

[boilerbabe]

15. No Hope?? keep working on them, they need to be enlightened!! n/t

[skaterkid]

11. You're dreaming

Dean MIGHT take the party nomination, but I doubt it.
The Clinton's are going to do everything they can to stop him.

IF he does get the nod he's going to get stomped once people come to their senses and realize that he intends to at least double EVERYONES taxes.
He MIGHT take two or three states max, otherwise it's going to be a Bush landslide.

[janx]

17. I'm glad you feel comfortable about that.

Keep your feet up.

[AntiCoup2K4]

22. Question

How on earth do you skate to Toby Keith and Lee Greenwood?

[adamrsilva]

42. Re: "You're dreaming"

"Dean MIGHT take the party nomination, but I doubt it.
The Clinton's are going to do everything they can to stop him.

IF he does get the nod he's going to get stomped once people come to their senses and realize that he intends to at least double EVERYONES taxes.
He MIGHT take two or three states max, otherwise it's going to be a Bush landslide."

-Please even the Republican don't believe that. They've said themselves, no matter who the Dem is, they have virtually 46% of the vote guaranteed and the race will be close. There's an article on Zogby about this, but the American electorate is extremely divided, and that is reflected on state lines, and thus, will be in the electoral college.

[molly]

12. Certainly NOT Delaware in the primary

and I'm betting he won't be the nominee.

[Bill of Rights]

13. Dean will win the following states:

Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Conneticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii.

He will struggle with: Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

He won't win (from the original post): New Hampshire, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, Louisiana, Colorado.

[Northwind]

16. All of them.

Sweep

[INTELBYTES]

18. vermont

nt

[KaraokeKarlton]

19. He can potentially win all of them

And he's not giving up on or ceding a single state. He's been running for the general election for months. Dean has campaign offices in about half of the US states.

[tedoll78]

20. this is something for undecideds to consider.

Dean already has organizations in many of the key electoral states. And TONS of volunteers. If he gets the nomination, he'd start-off light years ahead of the other candidates in terms of organization and money. Hell.. he'll probably have money leftover after primaries, which will be useful for defending himself against Bush until June or July..

[KaraokeKarlton]

23. Yes, he does

If the undecideds want to be able to get involved and volunteer, Dean is the best campaign by far. He's more likely to have paid staff in other states than the other candidates. And even if you happen to live in a state that doesn't have an actual office yet, you can just go to the main website and download campaign materials and go out and canvass, register voters and table for Dean. The campaign makes it really easy for you to connect with other Dean supporters in your area through DeanLink and download and print out the materials you need to get out and do something independently.

[bearfartinthewoods]

30. got a link for those state offices?

thanks

[tedoll78]

32. Here ya go..

Scroll down on this page:
http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=resources_contact

Cheers!

[JohnKleeb]

24. ok heres what I think could happen

I am not one who says Dean will lose in one of the worst defeats ever in 1984 or 1972 fashion nor am I one to say that Dean will win the greatest victory by winning all 50 states.
http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/
Sorry if its the default
I have him winning Ohio because the economy is bad there, NH because his fiscal conservatness is what NH voters like and it was close there before, WV because I think we lost there last time by a fluke and I think his view on guns may help there, I also say Nevada because they are furious with Bush because of his broken campaign promise about Yucca mountain.

[deminflorida]

25. Vermont...

n/t

[UrbScotty]

29. Obviously all of the Gore states, plus:

Florida
Missouri
Nevada
Ohio
West Virginia

Dean 328, Duh-bya 210.

[ochazuke]

31. Not enough

Vermont, Mass, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, DC, MD, HI, IL

Fair shot at PA, MI, WV, NH, ME

Poor chance but possible: WA, CA, WI, MN, IA, OR

Most importanly, he has no shot at winning MO, NM, FL, AR, LA (rest of the south), mountain states.

He would have to win one of those at least.

(This analysis assumes the economy won't go into recession before the fall and deaths in Iraq continue at or below November-2002 levels)

[Hawkeye-X]

34. Poor chance to possible is SO flukey it's not funny

Ahem. Dean has the capability to win ALL of the states -- he's been running as a GE candidate for a long time. * hasn't even started yet. He's already got most of the voters that he's looking for, and he's going to be winning the General Election in 11 months by 325 plus votes.

Mark my words.

Not only the South is in play, but the Southwest is in play, and that includes AZ, CO, NM, NV which went for Bush in 2000 (NM for Gore), but they ain't going for Bush this time.

Hawkeye-X

[Mass_Liberal]

36. follow-up question

does Dean win if he wins those states? I think so but am not sure.

[Hawkeye-X]

37. Yes he does.

You can play with the interactive EV thingy at http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[adamrsilva]

41. I think any Dem is gonna win the Gore states

The South (minus NM) and Midwest are solid Bush country. Little to no chance of winning LA, AZ, NE, etc. Florida is Bush's as long as Jeb is governor, except maybe if Graham is VP. Other than that the race comes down to the Rust Belt. The Dem must re-win PA, and win Ohio.

[adamrsilva]

43. There seems to be a consensus

It comes down to Ohio. Hopefully the steel tariffs decision will hurt Bush, and Dean's pro-gun stance will help us win it.