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BREAKING: Hillary Clinton surges into Gallup national poll lead-46 to 45

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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:06 PM
Original message
BREAKING: Hillary Clinton surges into Gallup national poll lead-46 to 45
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:07 PM by Tropics_Dude83
http://www.gallup.com

Gallup Daily: Clinton 46%, Obama 45%General election races remain tightUSA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks. The two Democratic candidates are now engaged in intensive campaigning leading up to Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary and are under a continual and hot media spotlight, increasing the chances for change in the views of Democrats in the days ahead. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

A kick for the lady who is SO going to be the democratic nominee. Rasmussen shows Obama collapsing as well.

As many of you know, I switched my support from Obama to Clinton last week because I was horrified by how many gaffes he was making.

Looks like national democrats share my opinion.
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stray cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
1. Lets see if Hillary wins PA by 20 as expected less than a month ago
If she does I'll take it seriously.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
2. Let it Float
To the top.

Like Buttah and Cream!


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pnorman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #2
56. The Scum Also Rises.
n/t

pnorman
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #56
67. I miss Hunter. I wish he was here writing about this.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #56
89. Thanks for the kick!
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #56
104. yep - obama is certainly scum, and now the CREAM is rising...
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #104
113. It's going to be awesome when she finally accepts her loss.
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 06:53 PM by Zhade
Maybe then she'll stop getting caught in lies so often.

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marylanddem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
3. I wouldn't break out the champagne just yet, Dude 83


Just sayin.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
4. Unbelievable.
We'll see if it holds. The debate may change it, and Hillary has had some negative press the past few days.
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. She wins PA the media will focus back on her.
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
6. It'll be interesting to watch the media silence on this one
lol
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. She Is The Most Reslient, Tenacious, Focused Competitor I Have Ever Seen
Win or lose, I'd like to have her next to me in a foxhole...
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. I wouldn't. She'd toss you out if it allowed her to escape.
Just like MoveOn
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #13
18. Couldn't agree with you more
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #13
25. Same here.
We stand with her and she is standing with us.
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cbayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #13
41. Ain't that the truth, nt.
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emilyg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #13
51. So would I.
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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #13
52. She's where she is b/c of the corporate media.
As far as being in a foxhole, I'm sure the majority of the military does not share your sentiment.
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #52
54. Yes, without the corporate media
slamming her at every turn, she would have had the nomination locked up weeks ago.
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JAbuchan08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #54
139. The corporate media just turned off its Hillary love for a brief period
when it became obvious that many of the actual voters did not consider her as inevitable as they did.

It's kind of like how Bush's poor poll numbers occassionally force them to conceed that he's not well liked. They really don't want to do it, but reality forces them to.
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Danger Mouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #13
72. She'd stab you in the back to save herself...
without the slightest hesitation.
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musicblind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #72
76. IDK, in a lot of ways she seems TOO loyal at times.
Took her forever to dump Penn because of it. n/t
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Danger Mouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #76
82. loyal only to those excessively loyal to her.
seems to be big on the 'what have you done for me lately?' mentality.
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Starbucks Anarchist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #72
95. Yep.
I find it ironic that the only time I've seen her really "fight" is when it's her own self on the line.
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greguganus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #72
137. If she loses, Bill better watch his back. And his front. n/t
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JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #13
87. This is true
Not to have her energy, competence, determination and tenacity somewhere big in in the next administration - preferably as president - will be a terrible waste.

If Obama is the nominee and if we win - do you think he will be wise enough to give her a top job so he can get stuff accomplished?
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 09:29 AM
Response to Reply #13
141. Yes she is.
Edited on Sun Apr-20-08 09:29 AM by barb162
:)
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
7. This Is Interesting
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:10 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
It shows the Newsweek poll is an outlier or HRC got the mother of all bumps from Wednesday's debate...
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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. And here's the thing about Pennsylvania
Since she is enjoying a modest national surge right now, she will outperform in Pennsylvania. Whereas this time last week, she probably would have won PA by just 4 or 5. With her surge, I think she could win by 15.

BTW, I still adore Obama and will support him if he's the nominee, but he's not ready for primetime and he doesn't make Florida and Ohio as competitivce as they need to be. I wish I had seen this sooner about him.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. You dont have to defend your switching you know nobody cares
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #17
24. Obama does not need to win Ohio or Florida
As an ex Obama supporter you seem amazingly uninformed. Again I am glad you switched.

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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #24
60. hearing this from Obama supporters
is what scares me about him. He doesn't need the swing states. He doesn't need Florida AND Ohio to win.

Some of you folks are living in an alternate reality.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #60
64. You are living in denial
How many times have I and others have said that Obama can win Colorado, Utah, and other such states?

Obama and Hillary do perform well in different states. Winning Florida will be a bonus for Obama. But he can win the presidency without it. Hillary cant.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #64
90. You can count out
The Great Lakes State.

With Obama, there is no way Michigan will go Dem.


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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #90
106. You can count out the Badger State.
With Hillary, Wisconsin goes GOP.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #106
134. Why?
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #64
92. you think Obama can win Utah?
the only state in the union where Bush still has a positive approval rating?

and you say I'm living in denial?
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #92
93. Great Point.
Thsi thing was over before it started.


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AZ Criminal JD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:14 PM
Response to Reply #64
125. You are denial if you think Obama is going to win Utah
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #60
114. We're not the ones lying about nonexistent sniper fire.
NT!

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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #114
143. We're not the ones lying how we never heard Rev. Wright's sermons
Edited on Sun Apr-20-08 09:34 AM by barb162
about the government giving AIDS to black people and all the other inflammatory crap Wright spews.
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yourguide Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #17
37. right
because national polls determine how pennsylvania voters will vote :sarcasm:

:rofl:
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #17
38. There Is Some Correlation Between The State And Nat'l Polls
It is the same universe of voters...

She will outperform in PN, IN, KY, WV, and PR...

I still think BHO will be the nominee...

The GOPU will try to Dukasize him...

Will they be successful?

HRC is a known quality. She would eat glass to win...
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yourguide Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #38
65. If that were the case, why didnt HRC win Iowa?
And she would eat glass to win. I think she should eat glass regardless.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #65
78. I Said There Was Some Correlation. I Was Not Denying There Are Regional Differences
You can relax...BHO will be the nominee...I'm a stone cold realist...Let's see what he does with it against Gramps...
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yourguide Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #78
83. I am relaxed...I just think your local correlation to national polls
is incorrect. Rudy Guiliani, another great example of that. And John McCain.
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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #17
80. So when will he be ready for prime time?
Answer me please!
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kevinbgoode Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #17
111. She is supposed to win Pennsylvania by 20. . .
15 won't be outperforming anything. It is more like partial recovery.
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Hepburn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
8. This is a surge?
LOL...you must have learned the definition of that word from Bush!

:rofl:
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. Dude was concerned with the number of gaffes Obama made.
Turned a blind eye on Hillary's remarks. I am glad he switched his support.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #12
26. Hmm you know it does seem he is turning a blind eye now that I think about it.
So much for Snipergate

Screw Em gate

and MoveOn gate

eh?
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Hepburn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:17 PM
Original message
Thanks for the info....
...apparently he does not research issues, but does things from his "gut."

:hi:
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:10 PM
Response to Original message
9. 1 point is MOE.
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:10 PM
Response to Original message
10. Did you really switch your vote?
Or is this some type of propaganda?

If you did sincerely change your vote, then I gladly welcome you aboard! :hi:
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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #10
31. AK10, this is sincere
I switched because of Obama's 7 major gaffes since Super Tuesday. And the Florida and Ohio GE polls played a large role as well. Clinton can pound Mccain in Ohio and edge him in Florida. Obama will lose Florida by 15 and be in tough in Ohio.

So, the gaffes combined with Clinton's strength in FL/OH is why I've switched.

It's more important to have a democrat in the white house than anything else. She has a better chance.

BTW, I haven't switched every week. I was constantly freaking over Obama's mistakes and finally I just had enough.

I agree. She is incredibly tenacious and resillient. And that is what we need to combat the vile Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Right wing freak show in the fall.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #31
48. Wow just wow
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:37 PM by Zachstar
You could not take the heat (Thus called politics) so you switched to Clinton?

I said before that nobody cares but this takes the cake.

What about Snipergate?

WHat about Screw Em gate?

What about her statements about Moveon?
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Two Americas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #48
101. personalized politics
Don't assume that just because you may see this all as highly personal, that therefore others do as well. You may be projecting your own drama onto others when you say that the other poster "could not stand the heat." She (he?) is expressing reservations about a candidate, not talking about her (his?) own emotional state.

This type of thinking is pervasive in the liberal and the party activists community - the politics of personal choice, personal belief systems, personal stances - and the Obama campaign represents what may prove to be the high water mark for this trend within the party. I see it as highly destructive and very weak politics, the main reason that we have struggled to battle the right wingers effectively. Personalized politics are at their core libertarianism, and if we are going to match up our liberal libertarianism against the right wingers' libertarianism, and present that as the choice to the public, we are going to lose. We are playing their game, by their rules, and promoting and reinforcing their premises.

"Personalized politics" is an oxymoron.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #101
116. So you DON'T have a problem with clinton's proven lies.
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 06:56 PM by Zhade
NT!

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Two Americas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #116
121. begging your pardon?
I am not obsessed with either candidate, nor am I on a side in this unimaginable fracas that is going on. No one was a more outspoken critic of Senator Clinton back a few months ago when we were actually making some substantive and meaningful criticisms instead of playing gotcha while minimizing our hero's flaws and magnifying those of our imagined enemy and her evil cohorts.

I think that the caps in posts, the exclamation pints, the one liners are all indicative of extreme emotional stress, leaking out and being dumped on innocent bystanders - there is a conflict in people's minds between what they know to be the truth, and what they are hoping or "believing" will be the truth. By YELLING their hopes, they are trying to make their hopes comes true and drown out anyone speaking the uncomfortable truth. That is the most generous explanation I can come up with for people's behavior.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #31
88. Amen brother.
With Obama as the nominee, Florida is lost.

Rev Wright guaranteed that.


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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #31
115. But you have no problem with clinton's repeated, proven lies?
Huh.

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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #10
53. I vote propaganda.
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:10 PM
Response to Original message
11. surge? lol
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:11 PM by meow mix
you "switch" your support about every week
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FlaGranny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
14. Proves that
innuendo and falseholds win over the gullible, doesn't it?
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Arrowhead2k1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:13 PM
Response to Original message
15. Shitty
If this is accurate, the Democrats are hopeless.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #15
20. The Race Is Fluid But I Expected This
I also expect BHO to get the nomination but with literally half the party backing his opponent... I have never seen such a campaign...
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. Hey DSB. Welcome back!
:hi:
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:14 PM
Response to Original message
19. Out of just 1000?
I am sorry I was happy for polls before this. Because polling just 1000 people is crap.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. The MOE Is Three Percent
I guess she could be leading by as much as four or losing by as much as three...
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #22
32. I could care less about MOE there are many millions of people in the United States.
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:19 PM by Zachstar
I thought these polls were atleast talking to 10 thousand.


At 1000 luck has much to do as swings.
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PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #32
59. Math, Probability, and Statistics ARE DEAD!
From someone who appears to be a bit of a science fan...
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AZ Criminal JD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #19
127. You are wrong.
Most national polling organizations will use about 1000 responses for their polls. Some do it with as little as 450-600 responses. This is standard practice by all organizations and they use statistical formulas to get their numbers. If you don't like this poll then you don't like any poll.
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:17 PM
Response to Original message
27. "SO going to be the nominee" ?? Pitiful.
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Nitrogenica Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
28. "Surge"?? Good lord this is so misleading. Who are you trying to fool?
Sorry.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
29. Obama Is Going To Be The Nominee
"A kick for the lady who is SO going to be the democratic nominee. Rasmussen shows Obama collapsing as well.

As many of you know, I switched my support from Obama to Clinton last week because I was horrified by how many gaffes he was making.


Looks like national democrats share my opinion."

- Tropic_Dude83

Obama is going to be the nominee...His devotees better hope he improves his game...
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leeroysphitz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
30. I thought your post had to be satire.
Since you used a word like "surge" to describe a 1 percent blip on polls with ±3 % MOE!
Lol. I was going to congratulate you on your wit.
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #30
34. Uh, this doesn't look like movement to you?
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #34
44. Ras has Obama at 2+
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:31 PM by slinkerwink
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #44
45. Yep
I posted it here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5578645

It also shows movement towards Clinton over the last few weeks.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #34
46. Thanks for the graph, ruggerson.
"Surge" or whatever qualifier one chooses to use, that shows a trend upward. :thumbsup:
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #46
49. It is NOT a surge, but is a trend.
"Slow and steady wins the race"
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #49
61. Just wanted to deflect the attacks on the OP because of use of the word "surge"
I prefer the tortoise, too. :hi:

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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #49
75. Slow and steady does not win the race when you are this far behind...
The finish line is not far ahead and Obama has a big enough lead that it would take a sudden and massive shift for Hillary to win, a shift so large as to be impossible to accomplish. Slow and steady can not win this race for Hillary, she has already lost.
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #34
47. she's definitely got the big mo
It must be gratifying, but also it's just the beginning of the bad stuff. Obama is going to have to turn up the heat, but she shines then.
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PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:47 PM
Response to Reply #34
55. My Prediction Made Thursday...
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:47 PM by prodn2000
So Far...So Good!

:hide:

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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #55
63. ROFL
:thumbsup:
:hi:
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SaveOurDemocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #55
136. LOLLLLLLL ... now, THAT would be fun!

:toast:

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leeroysphitz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #34
66. Yes. It's sort of peaceful. like the movements of ocean waves.
Gently up and down, up and down...

Here is your movement since March:


This is what a SURGE would look like:

Which one more resembles your graph?

Sorry. I don't have a dog in this fight. I just thought the use of the word surge was really funny.

Thank you.
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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #34
68. Down by 11 on Monday-up by 1 on Saturday
That is a massive move.

Remember what happened after the Bush V. Kerry 1st debate when Bush looked like a fool? Kerry surged into the lead and nearly won. Reemmber what happened after the 1st Bush V. Gore debate? Gore blew it and Bush eliminated Al Gore's double digit national lead that existed before it.

Debates matter. We can't have Obama turning in a debate performance against Mccain like that in the fall.

Another reason I support HRC now. It's all about electability.
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iamthebandfanman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
33. thats funny cause
i switched from not voting to voting for Obama because of ugly politics Mrs Clinton is doing.

looks like we cancelled each other out, eh ?
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. Were you also concerned about the polls as this dude was? lol
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #33
118. That's where I ended up, too.
NT!

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Armstead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
36. Please explain all of Obama's "gaffes"?
You mean his choice of a church 20 years ago, and his loyalty to his congregation?

or perhaps it was making an almost universally praised (including by non-supporters) speech that elevated the discussioin of race?

Or saying something to a group of supporters in a private meeting which all Democrats actually agree with -- including Hillary?

Maybe it was not boycotting a debate that was stacked against him. Although it wasn't his best performance, I didn't notice any "gaffes."

Maybe it was calling the moderators out on their stupid questions? Oh wait, Hillary has been whining about the media for the past year...



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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
39. Tropics Dude
glad you are supporting Hillary. I still think Obama is going to be the nominee, as I think the press is biased in favor of Republicans, and have been determined for months to try to sink Clinton. The press simply does not want another Clinton in the WH, because the Clintons don't kowtow to them. I think we will see a lot of movement to Clinton, but I also think it's a little too late in the game. I will support Obama, as I know you will, if he is our nominee, but I know which one of the two has a better chance of beating McCain. Her initials are HRC.
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
40. Tropics, you've never been for Obama.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #40
42. He was but would freak out everytime a punch came Obama's way
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #42
107. lol I remember his frantic ramblings after the Wright "scandal" broke.
They make me laugh now.
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #40
43. Of course he was
that's a pretty unfortunate thing to write.
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AZBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #43
131. He wasn't. He uses the same line in every post.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:48 PM
Response to Reply #40
85. It's called concern trolling
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 01:49 PM by Leopolds Ghost
Not that there's anything wrong with that.

It's his right to pretend to ascribe to any position he wants.
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cbayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
50. I wouldn't call it a surge, but there are some significant things to note.
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 12:41 PM by cbayer
This is the first time Clinton has led Obama since mid-March.
There appears to a clear trend over the past five days.

This remains an extremely close race.

on edit: I want to point out that the relatively small sample size of 1,241 is still larger than the oft quoted Newsweek poll sample size.
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #50
62. Yes, it is a trend in this poll that Obama should take note of
this is not good news for us. I'm confident Obama can turn it around. I'm surprised why he would be trending down though.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
57. Hello There, Chicken Little!
Why do you pretend that you were ever an Obama supporter?
You have been obvious for the longest time.
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
58. oh dear...collapsing?
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stevenleser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
69. Two words: #1 - Outlier. #2 - *PLONK*!!!!
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PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #69
71. Kick for an obvious trend....
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
70. Surging all the way from 48 to 46.. WOWeeeee
:rofl:
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AZ Criminal JD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #70
126. Math is not your stong point. Try again.
She went from 44 to 46. And that is better than dropping 3 points like Obama did.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #126
129. Nov 07.. she was polling at 48 % in PA
My math is fine :)
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AZ Criminal JD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #129
144. You had to go back to Nov 2007 for that? LOL
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #144
145. She's rarely been ABOVE 48%... that was my point..
48 is about IT..and Nov 07 was also when Obama was sitting at 15%... M O M E N T U M ... it's about moving UP....He has it..


She is Stasis.. He is Momentum


Definitions of stasis:

* noun: inactivity resulting from a static balance between opposing forces
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NorthCarolina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:34 PM
Response to Original message
73. So her nationwide Positive Polling is 46% and her nationwide Negative polling is 61%
that's 107% right there, and then add in the undecideds...

Somehow I'm not too sure about the validity of this poll. True or not, it's unbelievably good timing for Hillary though coming the weekend before the PA primary. Good thing it wasn't out on Thurs or Friday because I think it probably would have been debunked by now.
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:35 PM
Response to Original message
74. Sure, Tropics Dude - because Hillary has been gaffe-free. LOLOL.
.
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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
77. Not this national democrat.
If Clinton wins, McCain wins. Enough said.
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rhombus Donating Member (678 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
79. You're going to get severe migraines if you hitch your wagon to Daily tracking polls
Not worth the hassle.
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ORDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #79
105. Especially ones that don't count for anything. The primary is in PA, not nationwide. nt
:eyes:
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GoesTo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
81. Looks like statistically significant movement
over the last 4 or 5 days. Bittergate combined with the ABC-bate might have hurt Obama a bit.

I haven't gotten the sense of any kind of collapse, though. This kind of thing tends to dissipate and then the cumulative effect of all the stuff to this point averages together. This trend makes it less likely that Obama will score an upset in PA. One previous poster suggested she'll win by 15 instead of 5. Who knows, but likely better than Obama's most optimistic recent state polls. On the other hand, it would take a real collapse, not just a convergence to 50-50 for Clinton to win the nomination.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:47 PM
Response to Original message
84. Tropics_Dude, you are fascinating. I remember wondering at your early "pro-Obama" posts
Looks like you have finally come home to the candidate of your choice.
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cottonseed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
86. If Obama needs to go Kitchen Sink
That includes manufacturing controversies, lies, and pushing them with Rovian tactics (think cable news talking heads Blackberries blowing up) then I won't doubt you'll see the Gaffe count even up between Clinton and Obama. This is the Nuclear Option I'd been dreading during this primary. Clinton tears down Obama's character in a general election type campaign, forcing Obama to do the same in return. Basically, mutually assured destruction.

What's the limit on the draft age again?
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Crooked Moon Donating Member (278 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
91. favorability slippin' too
interesting that in three polls on favorability conducted in april (newsweek, abc/wapo and cbs/NYT), obama's favorability slipping after a previous steady climb in a all of them.

http://pollingreport.com/o.htm
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thoughtcrime1984 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:06 PM
Response to Original message
94. You were for Obama last I saw, you must be bi-polar
And to put much credence in polls can be very dangerous. I don't think most national Democrats share your opinion.
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:10 PM
Response to Original message
96. Your opinion changes like the weather. nt
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:23 PM
Response to Original message
97. Forget the "surge" issue...this poll, by nature, means exactly nothing.
It's a national poll of Democrats. Except in the 10 remaining primaries, Democrats nationally have already voted.

Who cares how somebody in Ohio, or New York, or California polls at this point? The decisions have already been made in those states.

How does this poll mean anything at all?
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symbolman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:23 PM
Response to Original message
98. Gee, "Neck and neck" as reported by The Media and Their ratings SURGE
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 03:25 PM by symbolman
Y'know, when I was a younger man there used to be blowouts all the time, and LONG before primaries or election days came upon us.. Has no one noticed that in the last 30 years or so IT'S always become a "horserace" "neck and neck" "down to the wire"?

Then suddenly, when it could have mysteriously gone "either way" the RIGHT WINGER WINS...

Keeps happening over and over. We're being scammed, first by the media, who set it up in the echo chamber, quoting each other, and then by guys like ROVE, or in this case, The Cackler..

Don't get your hopes up, the Presidents are now Installed.
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pnwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:32 PM
Response to Original message
99. This is NOT a lead, it's a statistical tie.
And since this poll is based on statistics, that makes it a TIE. Period.
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McCamy Taylor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 03:37 PM
Response to Original message
100. Now we know that the Newsweek poll was fos
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TLM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
102. Do the hillary supporters not notice at all that they've....
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 04:02 PM by TLM

gone from declaring a 20 to 30 point victory over obama in PA was a certainty.... to now hooting and cheering over her numbers rising to a MOE tie nationally?


She was 30 points ahead in pa.... she's lost almost all of that, and you're excited that she gained one or two points nationally?

That's Vegas logic.


And let me tell you, as someone who lived in PA and who knows people in PA... obama is doing very well thanks to hillary's spin on the whole bitter comment being so transparently BS. It hardly touched Obama, and made way more people see her as dishonest and untrustworthy.


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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #102
110. Nobody but Obama supporters keep mentioning a point lead
Races always close as the primary day gets closer. 20 points was an illusion which was before either candidate started seriously campaigning in the state. I think if she pulls it off by 5-10 points, considering the media is behind Obama and he has outspent her here 3 to 1, it will be remarkable.
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Sensitivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:09 PM
Response to Reply #102
124. Truth is SMEAR TACTICS WORK -- especially when fed trougth the MSM in PRIME TIME

Any democratic nominee will a little integrity will have to worry about this.
The republicans have not scruples about the SCARE AND SMEAR approach and Hillary has adopted that aproach whole hog.


Question is: what are we going to do about it?
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
103. Just like we've been saying - obama is TOAST - he screwed the pooch BIGTIME...
all but his campaign staff around the country and here see it...
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:35 PM
Response to Original message
108. No, it's a dead heat
Does anybody even mention margin of error anymore.
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Garbo 2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 04:37 PM
Response to Original message
109. But what does the lady in the hall say? n/t
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
112. You SO wish she's going to be the nominee, but she won't.
We'll be sure to remind you of your failed prediction when she finally accepts her loss.

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Toucano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
117. The surge is working? n-t
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biggerfishsmallpond Donating Member (62 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
119. Math still applies
if you listen closely you can hear the sweet sound of inevitability
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dailykoff Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 07:16 PM
Response to Original message
120. You switched huh.
Right.
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BlueIdaho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
122. Surges hee hee hee hee the dude said Surges... funny. nt.
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Imagevision Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
123. Hillary surges poll lead-46 to 45? yeah right, buh-bye Billary...
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
128. oh shit
a 1% MoE lead... what could Obama do to overcome this?

I think its pretty obvious he should just drop out now.
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AZBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:41 PM
Response to Original message
130. As many of you know, TROPICS_DUDE HAS BEEN A CLINTON SUPPORTER ALL ALONG. Don't fall for the BS.
Just research any of his posts - he always claims to have ]i]just swtiched from Obama to Clinton, but that's just a tactic (lie) that he uses to appear genuine. Don't fall for it.
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madrchsod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:44 PM
Response to Original message
132. the bar is filling up and the band is about to start
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ElsewheresDaughter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:46 PM
Response to Original message
133. RISE HILLARY RISE!
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
135. DANCE MONKEYS DANCE!! bahahahaha
Edited on Sat Apr-19-08 08:48 PM by msallied
You Hill supporters will grasp at anything. You don't even realize that the effing race is over. You should have prayed for such a "surge" in February, when it would have mattered.
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greguganus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-19-08 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #135
138. Like frogs on a slow boil. I kinda feel sorry for them. n/t
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
140. Very good news! Hillary for President!
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undeterred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 09:31 AM
Response to Original message
142. One point is a 'surge'? She is so much like Bush.
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Garbo 2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
146. oops. Obama "surges" back into Gallup national poll lead- 47-45.
(And still within MOE.) http://www.gallup.com/poll/106609/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-Slight-47-45-Advantage.aspx

So will you now conclude national democrats don't share your opinion?

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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #146
147. lol...nt
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
148. isnt it about time for Tropics to "switch" back?
LOL
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-20-08 02:44 PM
Response to Original message
149. You were the most pathetically fickle Obama supporter out there.
Edited on Sun Apr-20-08 02:44 PM by Drunken Irishman
At any sign of bad news, you flipped out, wrote his obituary and found a hole to crawl into. And when everything was rolling along, you were oddly silent, with scant praise as to what was happening. Then, just like clock work, another little bump and you were ready to throw Obama to the wolves. No offense, Tropics, but I'm glad you made the switch. Obama doesn't need a supporter like you, someone who can't weather the storm. You've been up and down more times than someone off their meds.

And no, I'm not suggesting you need to take your meds. But yeesh.
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