Debunking The Myths About Why Obama Should Be The Nominee

[Gman]

I had an Obama national campaign asshat tell me that Hillary should drop out because there's no way she can win. He said that's because Obama has won the popular vote, he has more delegates and has won more states. That is nothing but BS that compares apples to oranges to pears.

1) Popular vote? From the Huffington Post:
Late Update: There are some discrepancies between the figures for the popular vote between different news sites, and would alter my calculations substantially depending on who you believe. For example, in Kansas, CNN claims that 36,887 STATE DELEGATES represented the Kansas voters, whereas Real Clear Politics claims that 36,887 VOTERS represent the total. In contrast, CNN claims 406 STATE DELEGATES represented Alaska, whereas Real Clear Politics claims that 8,868 VOTERS represent the total. This, of course, is the reason to pursue the truth in these matters, and if Real Clear Politics says that only 36,887 'actual voters' came out to vote in Kansas, as opposed to, say, the 302,612 voters who came out to vote in Arkansas, which has virtually the same population, then I stand corrected. But it shouldn't stop the DNC from making a clear attempt to make sure these turnout numbers are correct.

Many DNC insiders fear that if Hillary Clinton manages to lose the pledged delegates, she may still take the lead in the popular vote, thereby causing the superdelegates to make a hard decision as to which candidate they should choose come August. Their fears are rooted in the notion that Clinton is only behind by roughly 800,000 votes, and that she could feasibly catch up with a big win in Pennsylvania.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shawn-christensen/dont-be-fooled-obama-is-a_b_96118.html

2) Pledged Delegates?? What? 150 delegates makes a mandate?

3) Number of states??? Ha! That reminds me of the RW'ers that claim Bush had an overwhelming mandate because he won more counties in the country. Check this out:



That's a helluva lot of red. If this was the measurement, 100,000 votes in Ohio didn't amount to a hill of beans. To argue that Obama won more states and therefore should be the nominee is as laughable as that map.

[anonymous171]

1. He should be the nominee for one reason: Most delegates.

That is why we hold primary elections.

[NanceGreggs]

5. Well, there you go again ...

... refusing to move the goalposts.

[mythyc]

19. delete - dupe

[Gman]

6. Even if it's by only 1 delegate at the convention

then he wins. Anything else is spin and bullshit.

[thoughtcrime1984]

13. And you KNOW her campaign has been pushing popular vote,

Electoral vote (good grief), and electability due to cherry-picked polls 7 months out (double good-grief), to get the SD's to her side. It's a bunch of shit and spin. Obama's pledged delegate lead is 171 right now, good luck overcoming that.

[truedelphi]

21. What keeps me rooting for Obama is this Hillary neocon philosophy:

http://tinyurl.com/4pf3tk

[mythyc]

16. got YOUR spin right here

[mythyc]

12. sssshhhhh! you'll interupt the static scrunching through the scrambled egg brains

[tritsofme]

20. Most delegates doesn't mean anything, you need 2024 delegates.

A nominal lead in pledged delegates is as arbitrary a variable as anything.

[ORDem]

75. Not really. Soon Obama will have the MAJORITY of the pledged delegate count.

At that point it's all over for Ms. H. The SDs will come over in herds (or gaggles or something...).

[tritsofme]

82. It has been mathematicaly impossible for Clinton to win the pledged delegate count for weeks.

Other factors such as a victory in the popular vote have yet to be determined.

If we were judging a contest based solely on pledged delegates, it would be over by now.

[Zhade]

76. I believe a "deluge of delegates" is the term.

; )

[The Doctor.]

39. You are SO wrong.... ONE reason isn't good enough.

1st; He has to have more delegates.
2nd; He has to have the popular vote.
3rd; He has to have ALL the superdelegates
4th; He has to win more states.
5th; The Mainstream Media has to prove he's our candidate by trying to unfairly trash him.
6th; He must receive the Blessing of The Pope.
7th; He has to reveal every past interaction with every controversial and potentially controversial person in existance alive or dead.
8th; He has to receive the Blessing of the Mainstream Media to prove he can win the GE.
9th; McCain has to announce that he will concede the Presidential election if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.
10th; He has to adopt every orphan in the nation to prove he loves the children.
11th; Jesus Christ must rise and give his Personal Blessing to Obama.
12th; Hillary upon taking all of these criteria into account, must flip a coin to decides whether she should think of dreaming of the possibility of stepping down.

So you see anonymous171... it's virtually impossible for Barack Obama to win the nomination at this point.

Oh well. I have to get back to healing lepers in heaven with Our Father now... but I'll be back.

[ShortnFiery]

73. ...

:spray: :hi:

[paulk]

40. Q - then why do we have super - delegates?

A - because the point of the primary election is to pick a candidate that can win in the GE.

[Gman]

43. Exactly

which is why the superdelegates need to fulfill their original purpose and take control away from the kids and make Hillary the nominee.

[Zhade]

77. And that'll be Obama.

NT!

[PBS Poll-435]

2. Good Points.

Thanks

[AllentownJake]

3. Big Reason

Why even hold primaries with delegates than. Why don't we just have a national popular vote tally?

He's run a more effective campaign. How the hell is she going to win the general with the goons she has now?

[kid a]

4. When you put a population density map side-by-side, then we'll talk.

The colors are pretty and all, but its just that - pretty colors.

[Gman]

10. Tell that to the OBama people who say he won the most states

and should be the nominee. For that matter, Hillary has won the big electoral vote states. If anyone, Hillary has the better argument.

[kid a]

28. Wait - Is that a primary map? Are we talkin primaries or GE?

The goal is to win the election. Obama is winning based on his winning strategy.

He will alter that strategy a win the GE.

[ClericJohnPreston]

54. Winning strategy??

A campaign crafted as cannily as any advertiser could muster. In other words, all talk, no action, no experience, pure BS.

[Zhade]

79. Far better than being a proven pathological liar like clinton.

NT!

[PM7nj]

30. He is winning all the major urban areas...

Except for NYC and LA.... he won the major cities in "Hillary states," Boston, San Francisco, Cleveland, Cincinatti, Newark, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia (soon), etc etc. So, Hillary is basically winning in all the places Bush won.

[stillcool]

33. whatever...

the most delegates, the most states, the popular vote...and who wins again?


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Liberal Gramma]

34. Are you trying to say that the states Hillary won won't go blue?

A heavily Democratic state will vote Democratic regardless of the candidate. Your arguement doesn't hold water. A heavily Republican state will go red. She has NO chance of picking up any red states, Republicans hate her. Obama has SOME chance.

[Gman]

45. Gramma, the Obama people are making the argument not me

I'm showing how ludicrous that argument is. And if anything HIllary has a better argument that she's won the big electoral vote states (including MI and FL) and she has a better chance of winning in November.

[Exilednight]

44. That's not a good argument, and here is why........

She rests on the fact she won FL and MI, and no matter how hard any Hillary supporter tries - FL and MI don't count. The other big states she points to are NY and CA. Again, no matter how hard a Hillary supporter tries, NY and CA will go for the Democratic nominee regardless who it is. They're weak arguments.

[Zhade]

78. Um, he HAS won the most states, 30 to 14.

Try again.

[Arkansas Granny]

88. I feel that the SDs will be looking long and hard at electoral votes when they make their decisions.

It's one thing to win the Democratic primary in a state, but some states are going to go Republican in the GE regardless how well either Democratic candidate did in the primaries. It's the final electoral vote projections that will sway the SDs, IMO. I hope they make the right call so we don't wind up with another 4-8 years of a Republican presidency.

[TLM]

32. In the wors of Wanda Sykes.... all that red shit is rocks and coyotes n/t

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. The candidate who gets the most delegates wins. That's the way it works.

Too bad if you don't like it that way.

[depakid]

27. Wrong. The candidate who gets 2025 would get the nomination

And it's possible that neither candidate will reach the number, and the convention will deadlock.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

36. My bad -- you're right.

The point I intended to make was that the number of delegates matters, not the popular vote.

[TheDoorbellRang]

42. How could one of them NOT reach 2025

That would mean some supers refusing to ever declare, which rather defeats their raison d'etre. And the sooner they declare, the better. Then we can get on with the GE. This will be a done deal by the first week in June at the latest.

[depakid]

53. Easy- they just wait for the convention

or, after looking at what appears to be inevitable defeat, they simply change their minds.

[Usrename]

46. No, the other poster was correct.

That number, 2025, is based on the total number of delegates who will be counted.

It can change. For example, if the MI and FL delegates are seated, the number will be higher.

It is too the majority, or half+1, or the most delegates.

on edit> oops, I see what you mean, that only applies to a two-way race, and Edwards already has some pledged delegates, so ignore this post

:blush:

[Zhade]

80. Oh, KEEP DREAMING.

If you think she's going to take the nom, I have several bridges to sell you.

[Lyric]

29. Wrong. The candidate who gets a certain number of delegates wins.

If neither candidate reaches that magic number, then the primaries are scrapped, "pledges" are nullified, and the party chooses the nominee at the convention based on whoever they think has the best chance of beating the Republicans. If that happens, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see both Obama and Clinton passed over in favor of someone that half the party isn't utterly disgusted with.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

38. You're right, of course. See above.

Just making the point that it's delegates, not the popular vote count, that determines the nomination.

[TheDoorbellRang]

47. How can you think that neither candidate will reach 2025?

Where is this idea coming from? There's a total of 4049 delegates to divvy up betwen two people. They will all be completely apportioned to either Obama or Clinton. One of them will have more than the other and will therefore have 2025 or more. In what possible scenario do you foresee one of them not getting to 2025?

[Gman]

48. At this point that would be fine with me

none of the above.

[DJ13]

8. That map shows how many stupid people there are in this country

By that measure, sure Clinton still has a chance.

[thoughtcrime1984]

9. He's ahead by more than 140 delegates

She won't win.

[Gman]

11. There's a lot more than 140 delegates left to be decided.

She still can win.

[DJ13]

14. There arent enough delegates left for her to catch up

Sorry, its time to come back to earth and face reality.

[thoughtcrime1984]

17. Of course she CAN, but will she? Highly doubtful.

It's that tricky math again, always getting in the way. She will not win 70-30 from here on out, she has not won by that margin in any state.

[Arugula Latte]

18. But she has to win every remaining state by HUGE margins.

I mean, HUGE.

[MercutioATC]

26. Only by 28% in every remaining primary and 64% of the supers...

...and that would put her ahead of Obaba by TWO delegates.

[Warren Stupidity]

35. So?

It could happen. neener neener.

[Arugula Latte]

37. Hmmmm ... Why am I reminded of certain movie dialogue

People who don't get the math in this nominating race are like the Jim Carrey character in "Dumb and Dumber":


Lloyd (Jim Carrey): "What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me? One in a thousand?"

Mary (Lauren Holly): "Um, more like one in a million."

Lloyd: "So you're saying there's a chance!"

:D

[bunnies]

15. No such thing as popular vote in a primary with caucuses.

Its just as vapid of an argument any other the Clintons have made.

[blm]

22. Gman, the RW created that graphic to further manipulate a dumbed down public.

Why validate their tactic and try to use it here at DU?

[Gman]

51. Good grief

and you dismiss the fact that Obamabots make the identical argument about Obama winning more states? So, let me get this straight... if Republicans want to try to manipulate a dumbed down public that's bad. But if Obama wants to manipulate a dumbed down public that's good?

It just gets stranger and stranger.

[blm]

65. That's a DELIBERATELY DECEPTIVE map - pretend it's OK all you want, but don't expect

a big rush of applause from anyone but those who believe deception is warranted.

[Gman]

66. It IS a deliberately misleading and deceptive map!!

That's my point. It's also my point that Obama people make the VERY SAME argument, along with others, that since Obama won the most states he deserves to be the nominee. As I said in the OP, that's laughable. That map is just as misleading as this map of blue and red states:

[blm]

67. Well the BEST reason he SHOULD be the nominee is that he sides with Open Government and is the only

candidate in the race that isn't a protector of the secrecy and privilege of closed government and the powerful elite who benefit from closed government.

If those less savvy about the nation's historic record think anything else it's because our nation's newsmedia is one of the WORST in the world.

[Gman]

71. All good and honorable reasons to support Obama

as opposed to supporting Obama as some people do because they hate Hillary.

[Warren Stupidity]

23. When you start an essay with

"I had an Obama national campaign asshat" you have generally ruled out anyone considering what you have to say as anything other than partisan bullshit.

[Gman]

55. ...as you post with your Obama avatar and pic in your sig line...

Do I think anyone that has a brain would even be frequenting GD: P? Of course not. Only the mindless inhabit this place. I'm surprised this got 5 recs. Fact is, I'm shocked. What the hell am I doing here? God help me! I don't want to be! I can't help myself!! Someone do an intervention... quickly!

[Warren Stupidity]

59. There is a self help 12 step program in the lounge.

[Gman]

63. I have the Lounge blocked too

God help me...! I can change my nick to "Twelve Step"

[C_U_L8R]

24. here...

[Swamp Rat]

25. I agree with the Obamatroid asshat.

:D

[azmouse]

31. ...

[Gman]

41. Well, just cry your ass off, Mr. T

before I bust you upside yo' head you wimp.

[DrFunkenstein]

49. Obama Should Be The Nominee Because Clinton's Militarism Sucks

Not to mention a nasty and incompetent campaign, which is the only thing she has ever had experience running as an executive.

Also, Obama won more contests with more pledged delegates and more of the popular vote (and knows how to run a tight campaign).

[Gman]

57. You forgot Obama won more states and counties too

that counts for a lot, doesn't it?

[pointsoflight]

50. Um, he does lead in delegates, states, and popular vote

Just because you choose to ignore that indisputable fact doesn't make someone who acknowledges it an asshat.

[TeamJordan23]

52. 150 pledged delegates in a proportional system is actually a lot. nm

[ClericJohnPreston]

56. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA

and the scary part is you believe this....

[BlooInBloo]

62. I invite you play with the delegate calculator to get a feel for the "mathematical possibility"...

... of Clinton winning.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[pointsoflight]

58. Oh, and yeah, there are discrepancies in the popular vote.

That's one of multiple reasons why popular vote should not be considered.

But regardless, Obama leads in all of the different counts of popular vote. So how exactly does this "debunk the myth that Obama leads in delegates, states, and popular vote"? He does lead in all of those things, even with the discrepancies you see in the popular vote count across web sites.

[Zhade]

81. Quite simply, it doesn't, but the OP wishes it did.

It's almost cute, in a pathetic delusional sort of way.

[Hepburn]

60. He should be the nominee for one reason and one reason only...

...he would makea far better president than Hillary Clinton. Period.

[BlooInBloo]

61. Indeed - we should vote for the most republican-like canidate possible....

.... Clinton-supporters are bizarre.

[Warren Stupidity]

64. Ah well that is what we ended up having a choice of two of anyway.

I started out with the actual progressive Democratic candidate, had to fall back to the center-left populist, and then was faced with a choice between the two center/center-right candidates left in the race. There really is little difference in their official policy positions.

[AtomicKitten]

68. 1) Obama has an insurmountable lead in the delegate count which is the legal metric, and

2) In polling, Obama has consistently, with very few exceptions, fared much better in a McCain matchup.

Hillary is counting on a superdelegate coup d'etat. See #1 and #2 above.

[saintandrew]

69. In Today's gallup, Clinton beats McCain by 2% while Obama wins by 1%

Haven't we been told that Hillary is much more unelectable that Obama?
I don't get it.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106606/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-46-Obama-45.aspx

[BzaDem]

70. Real Clear Politics is right about the popular vote.

Kansas had around 36,000 voters. It was less than Arkansas because Kansas was a caucus.

Most states report vote totals in addition to state delegates. RCP uses vote totals where possible. There are only 4 states that only report state delegates (and not vote totals): Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington State.

[TML]

72. Little states don't matter

Isn't that what Hillary Clinton said? :rofl:

[davidpdx]

83. Yep

as well as red states and caucus states. It's amazing only less the half of the states really count according to her campaign.

[GoldieAZ49]

74. that map looks way to blue

for 08 if Obama is the nominee

[barack the house]

84. However you cut it, SDs voting against their state is a career ending decision, so we'll till folks.

see that. Public will was overturned in the 80s and only one state was won under Mondale.

[rodeodance]

87. there go Kennedy and Kerry then

[intaglio]

85. What have you debunked, exactly?

all you have done is made a set of declarations about how Obama doesn't lead by much so that lead it can be ignored. Oh, and posted a pretty map

[my3boyz]

86. HAHAHA

"only behind by roughly 800,000 votes, and that she could feasibly catch up with a big win in Pennsylvania."

Chuck Todd said that assuming a 60/40 split Clinton would still only net about 250,000 (and EIGHT delegates..haha)in PA. That is best case scenario for her. He said if Obama wins North Carolina big then that will take away the delegates that Clinton netted in PA. He said that she will win popular vote in West Virginia and Kentucky. However, he said that Obama's wins in Oregon (and other states..think it was Montana and South Dakota) would cancel out those wins. So he said all of those states will basically make the popular vote gain about even and that is NOT good enough for Clinton. He said he can't even imagine a situation where she can catch up. Even if you threw in the 300,000 gain from Florida as-is. TRY AGAIN!