Bush Overtakes Kerry In West Virginia (Zogby)

[papau]

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3199

June 28, 2004
Bush Overtakes Kerry In West Virginia

(CPOD) Jun. 28, 2004 – George W. Bush could carry the state of West Virginia in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a (6/21) poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 49.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent (up from 43.5% on June 7), while 43.1 per cent would support prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry (down from 46.6%).

Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 1.4 per cent of respondents (down from 2.4%). <snip>

Source: Zogby Interactive / The Wall Street Journal Online
Methodology: Online interviews to 467 West Virginia voters, conducted from Jun. 15 to Jun. 20, 2004. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

[diplomats]

1. The good news is this Zogby poll was done June 15-20

so it's more than a week old and it probably included a bit of Bush's since-gone Reagan bounce.

[wtmusic]

2. Wha hoppen'd?

:shrug:

[Richardo]

3. "Margin of error is 4.5 per cent."

So this poll is meaningless.

Bush @ 49.1 - 4.5 = could be as low as 44.6
Kerry @ 43.1 + 4.5 = could be as high as 47.6

Apparently, much ado about nothing, like most polls at this point in the election cycle.

[AndyTiedye]

4. How Can Kerry Be Losing Ground Now?

I guess F/911 isn't showing anywhere in West Virginia.

[laruemtt]

17. you're right - it's NOT playing here!

can you believe it???? somebody satellite it into us please! actually, it's playing in beckley, which is about two hours from here. our capitol city doesn't even have it! OUTRAGEOUS!

[Hoping4Change]

5. I think people think that "handover" means the troops are

safer so they are feeling more positive about Shrubco. Many people aren't clued into the fact that the handover is simply PR.

[JI7]

8. some might think it means troops are coming home also

and that therefore we won the war.

[Hoping4Change]

10. Exactly . The one big positive is that the handover is now , not

at the end of October because there is enough time between now and Nov for reality to sink in that troops aren't going be marching home.

[sandnsea]

14. I agree

I was just watching a woman on MSNBC, that's pretty much what she said. She actually wonders if the troops are going to be coming home now. Give it a month, they'll get the picture.

Although as much as I hate Bush, I would rather have the troops and Iraqi's safe and do hold out a teeny bit of hope in the remote possibility this "handover" will help. Have to think others do too, contributing to the poll bump. That and Raygun.

[RummyTheDummy]

18. The poll was taken well before the "handover"

Looks like it was done June 15-20.

[leyton]

6. I think West Virginia will go to Bush this time.

Simply put, economic matters are not as salient as Iraq and cultural matters, and as far as I know, West Virginians are not particularly opposed to the Iraq war. On top of that, culturally it is a very conservative state. I don't see any reason why we should make much of an effort with this state.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. It is not a state that Republicans have typically won

Bush in 2000 and Reagan in 1984 were the only Republicans to carry the state since Nixon's landslide in 1972.

[dolstein]

12. But it IS a state that Republican incumbents have typically won

Bush Sr. is the only Republican incumbent in the last 50 years to have lost West Virginia.

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. The Republican incumbent lost WV in 1976 also

[leyton]

16. But I think it's changing.

Trends change. California used to a must-win for Republicans, the House spent forty years in Democratic hands, and it was assumed that first-term Presidents lost seats in Congress in the midterm. These don't mean much anymore: California is solid blue, the House has been in GOP control for nine years, and Bush picked up seats in 2002. West Virginia, I think, is a state that we have lost for the next few cycles because of non-economic issues like guns and abortion.

[Freddie Stubbs]

25. You may be right, but

one election does not necessarily mean that the state is changing. 2000's result may have been a reaction to Al Gore's enviornmentalism (the coal industry is a big employer) rather than a true realignment. Every statewide elected official in WV is a Democrat (inciluding both US Senators) 2/3 of the its Congressmen are Democrats, and Democrats hold overwealming majorities in both houses of the state legislature.

[surfermaw]

13. Gun Owners

I remember in the last Presidential election, one guy in WV,said he wasn't worried about his job , he was worried about losing his gun if he voted for Gore...

[kymar57]

21. I don't know about that.

A friend was just in for a visit from Charleston,W.Va and she tells my economically,they are in the crapper. Many boarded up store fronts. Any Mountaineers out there with an opinion on this?

[Renew Deal]

7. This is the second bizzare flip this week.

Some other poll for Wisonsic made the same type of flip. That's weird.

[fairfaxvadem]

11. ...and with two Dem Senators to boot.

How is it they can't deliver the White House for the Dems? Rockefeller is on the Sunday talk shows a lot. Byrd is constantly giving Bush the shaft on the Senate floor.

I think the Senators need to spend a little more time at home between now and November.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

19. bush visting charleston on juy 4th, cheney on the third

at taxpayer expense of course. they're trying to solidify it.

[LimpingLib]

20. Im not at all suprized.

Many people I talk to think this election is turning into a dual meltdown on both sides. Its a race to the bottom. Last man down wins. Social issues will be the only discernable difference.

I expect all the social conservative states like Iowa , West Virginia , Louisiana , Arkansas ,etc. to break for Bush.

Bush doesnt have a chance in Oregon , Washington , or New jersey (that was bs from the get go ,NJ going for Bush). Kerry might just win Virgina though as it not to socialy conservative.

Many tell me now that the Green party is dead and Nader is history , then expect what little differences are presented to voters this time around to vanish (except on social issues)by 2008.

I sure hope its not true but all the small "d" democratic progressives I know really feel this election just makes them sick. Plus of the progressive leaning people I know that usually stay home on election day none is even talking about this race.

[59millionmorons]

22. It's only an interactive poll, not a real poll

You have to sign up just to take the poll, it's worthless.

[fujiyama]

23. Zogby INTERACTIVE

These polls are unreliable. They are not conducted scientifically.

I wouldn't put much stock in them, just as I wouldn't with FOX polls.

That said, I think Bush has had a slight bump in recent weeks, but I'm not really sure if it will last. His approval numbers are still weak.

[TexasSissy]

24. Oooooh. That's not good news.