Who will win Pa and by what margin

[aaroh]

[cali]

1. hillary by 12.

[H2O Man]

7. " n/t

[MrSlayer]

2. Hillary by 4.

Is what I think.

[bklyncowgirl]

3. Clinton by 5-10 not enough to change a damn thing--but anything can happen

My heart says Obama but my head says Clinton. Obama's people are fired up but the Rendell machine knows how to churn out voters and from what I've read gives Clinton a four point advantage right off the bat.

If she wins by more than ten it give her a big boost--I don't know if that's going to happen but it could and we can expect the negative campaigning to intensify--why stop doing something that's working.

If it's below five Clinton will declare victory. Obama will also declare victory.

If Obama wins calls for Clinton to get out of the race will reach a crescendo. I doubt very much if this is going to happen.

It all hinges on who decides to come out and vote.

[rzemanfl]

4. I think the type of people who were willing to stand a half a mile

away to hear Obama speak will decide the outcome.

[Vinca]

5. Obama has a chance to squeak this one out given it's only 5 pts.

and 8% are undecided. The cell phone people are the mystery.

[Cosmocat]

9. No ...

Too many darn old people ...

Bottom line ...

People can do all the rural talk they want, but that is why PA is a bad matchup for BO against Hill ... A tick of it is about race, but more so just his being younger and unkkown, and Hill being older and having the name recognition - really that is the overwhelming factor ...

I was in State College when 20+ thousand showed up to see BO, and I agree that might be able to push the final results a tick or two higher than projected, but I think you are cherry picking the polling that leans most favorably to BO, that has him 5-6 off here in PA ... You average those polls out with the ones that show a more substancial advantage to Hill, and he is about 7-9 off of her ... I don't think/hope it won't be that big of a margin ...

At the end of the day, I want it to be 5, give or take a point ... I think that is best case scenario here ...

IF Hill gets close to a double digit win, it gives her, being unhinged, more than enough rationalization to keep dragging it out, and may be too great of a margin for SDs to start breaking to BO in mass ...

This from someone who is active in politics in PA, a life long PA resident and who has completely had his fill of Hill at this point, and who is an Obama supporter ...

[Azathoth]

6. Hillary by (hopefully low) single digits n/t

[Lone_Star_Dem]

8. Hillary by 7-12% is my guess. I voted 5-10% since that was closest.

I've not seen an real sign she was able to get the momentum she needed in PA to pull of the higher margin she required. I could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything indicating otherwise yet.

[Fluffdaddy]

10. Obama 0-5!!!! you Big O surpporters are illusional

As I said 2 months ago Texas /Ohio/ Pennsylvania, is Sen. Clinton's............ Bank on it

[PM7nj]

12. Illusional?

lol

[ecdab]

13. Didn't Obama walk away from Texas with more delegates?

And aren't delegates what decide the nomination? So that makes you 1 for 2 with your crystal ball. I'll give you a 50-50 chance of being right on PA, as your record indicates I should.

[ginnyinWI]

14. Obama won Texas.

He got the most pledged delegates. And that is the ONLY measure we should ever need to talk about.

Chuck Todd says that even if HRC wins PA by 20 points, she still only nets 9 pledged delegates. I am giving her a 0-5% win, by the way.

[dbmk]

19. That was only because of the caucus though.

I am guessing a 0-5 still. But I think 5-10 is almost as likely. It seems be howering right on the edge between those numbers.

I think they polling might not be up to date, taking into account the turnout of younger voters and new voters. And then there is the cell phone segment, which is probably also tilted Obamas way.

If Obama gets under a 5% loss it will be a killer blow.

As I have said somewhere else, Chuck Todd is wrong though. 20 points will net Hillary a _guaranteed_ 11 delegates from the two blocks of statewide delegates. That part is pure math. And probably mean a total 16 delegate win. But it wont be 20 - or even 15.

The numbers for 60-40 looks like this:
40 60
Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs)
20 Delegates Obama 8 Clinton 12

At-Large Delegates
35 Delegates Obama 14 Clinton 21

More here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5575980#5587394

[Carrieyazel]

11. Hillary by six to eight points. Enough for her that she isn't leaving the race anytime soon.

[TragedyandHope]

15. Hillary by single digits

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. Clinton +8

And be sure to look for the confetti drop!

[kentuck]

17. I don't know but...

I suspect it will be within 3 points one way or the other.

[Lisa0825]

22. Yeah, I think it is a real toss up.

I picked Hillary 0-5, but I think it's close enough that anything could happen.

[IsItJustMe]

18. I am going with hope, Obama 0-5.

[MercutioATC]

20. Clinton by 9

She'll also win Indiana by 5, but lose NC by 13

[NJSecularist]

21. Obama leading by 0-5 in this poll shows how many Obama homers we have on this forum.

And why you should take any poll on this forum with a grain of salt.

[newmajority]

23. It's going to be a single digit win either way.

The competing factors will be massive voter turnout vs Rendell's control of the machines.

The real victory will be for Obama (and for America) in either case, because Hillary will not get enough delegates to further perpetuate her delusional form of math

[XemaSab]

24. This is not the official thread

:eyes:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5567505&mesg_id=5567505

[indie_voter]

25. Clinton +9 n/t

[Upton]

26. I'm an Obama supporter but I think Clinton will win

by a margin similar to Ohio. It still won't make much difference delegate wise and Obama will remain on track to be the nominee.

[Tribetime]

27. Clinton by 8 but hope I'm wrong