I was at a PA bar last night. Obama ads ran about every 5-10 mins. ZERO Clinton ads ran

[jackson_dem]

If Obama loses Pennsylvania he has no excuse. He has bought the best campaign money can buy in Pennsylvania. I even got a Facebook message asking me to recruit volunteers for Obama's GOTV effort on Tuesday. This shows the depth of his campaign. They even go as far as contacting leaders of young Democratic organizations to try to find volunteers.

[NJmaverick]

1. Obama has won TWICE the number of states Hillary has

This state naturally is over 20% more favorable to Hillary. For Obama to make it as close as he has, shows what a great candidate he is. In states where the opposite is true, that Hillary was the heavy underdog, she gets her butt kicked.

[jackson_dem]

5. Obama has no excuse for losing PA

How the fuck do you lose when you are "inevitable", have the MSM on your side, and are basically purchasing the state with wall-to-wall advertising?

[Zachstar]

11. PA is a Clinton Firewall state. You Fail

[Spider Jerusalem]

16. How do you lose when you're inevitable? Ask Hillary. She has experience with that.

[Zachstar]

24. Bingo!

[NJmaverick]

38. excellent point

[virtualobserver]

"You've got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who.....

...are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate,"

Ed Rendell

so that might be a reason....but he may turn out to be wrong.........along with Hillary's down in the gutter campaign....... "He looks down on you"

How exactly did Hillary get here? Wasn't she the original "inevitable" candidate?

[jackson_dem]

26. John Edwards took her down (lobbying, "politics of parsing", etc.)

Too bad as she fell most votes moved to Obama, not Edwards.

[Yael]

36. What Ed failed to mention in that inane comment

was that all of those people are voting for Ron Paul.

[MJJP21]

31. Is this a complaint?

It would be politically neglegent for Barack to give less than 100% in PA. Personally I don't think he believed he had a shot at PA and therefore did not start earlier enough to make a bigger effort. Spending the money in the final days before the primary may counter the late start from him. Hillary is no doubt out of money and spending far more than she was prepared too. Even Rendell has backed away in recent days in fully supporting her. Every major paper in the state is supporting Obama including the Scranton Trib in Scranton a place Hillary wants to be from .(Actually Hillary was not born in Pa nor reared here but you can't get the press to publish this) The fact that Bill Clinton was in Wilkes Barre yesterday you would never have known it if the news didn't report it. The press was polite and said he spoke to a small group. You know that things are not going well in PA for Hillary when both she and Bill are spending time in NE PA a few days before the primary when this area should be a slam dunk for them. PA can shut this process down and lets hope it does.

[jackson_dem]

34. Of course not. This is an on the ground report. Obama has run an excellent campaign in PA

Can we not say something positive about Obama without Obama supporters getting paranoid? :shrug:

[NJmaverick]

41. Have the MSM on your side?!?!?!?!? Are you serious

Did you watch the debate? Have you seen the attacks by the media???? They were instrumental in allowing Hillary to the repukes to play Mole Hill politics against him.

Despite all that he has made the state competative.

[stahbrett]

48. Hillary was inevitable before the election started - how did she wind up losing?

Individual states aren't as important as the cumulative results, and Obama has beaten Hillary. That doesn't mean he will overcome her huge early leads in every single state - the leads that she has due to her name recognition and support from the party establishment.

But the name of the game is delegates, and Hillary is behind Obama by ~170 pledged delegates, and in the super-delegate category, she has netted a whopping 2 or 3 since Super Tuesday, while Obama has netted ~65 over the same time period.

She needs to win BIG in Pennsylvania - it's like being down by 5 touchdowns after the 3rd quarter of a football game - just winning the 4th quarter by a few points doesn't equal a game victory.

[Quixote1818]

63. Clinton has no excuses for losing by 30 points in about 20 States. nt

[joeprogressive]

67. He can purchase the state because he has more supporters, thus

more contributions. It's not as if he had to take out a personal loan to pay for those ads. If you are the front runner, you get the fruits of that status. Nice try to say he should win though. HRC was winning this state by more than 20 points. Anything less than a 15 point victory is a loss for HRC.

[NightWatcher]

2. is this a criticism? Hillary would buy ads, but tv stations wont take her credit cards

as far as motivating young democrats to find volunteers....isnt that a very good thing?

[jackson_dem]

8. This is a field report about the excellent campaign Obama has run in PA (bittergate excepted)

[Raven]

3. I think he's probably going to lose but not by much. n/t

[Clovis Sangrail]

4. *gasp*

they contacted leaders of young Democratic organizations???

I'm shocked
shocked I tell you

[jackson_dem]

6. Where did they get my name? That is a sign of strength

I have heard nothing from the Clinton campaign.

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

15. You have heard nothing from the Clinton Camp?

And you are in PA? Why aren't you helping her campaign?
:shrug:

[jackson_dem]

23. I am right next to PA. I contacted them

I haven't had a Clinton operative come out the blue and contact me.

[Clovis Sangrail]

37. gee.. that's a tough one

Are you a leader or member of a young Democratic organization?
maybe from there... maybe from your voter registration..
:shrug:

[jackson_dem]

40. I know but somebody had to take the time to search out the names of local young Dem leaders

This is a sign of a very deep campaign. :thumbsup:

My voter registration is not in Pennsylvania.

[democracy1st]

7. thats great

thanks for the info

[MaineDem]

9. She doesn't have the money

That's going to be the most important thing going forward. If she doesn't pick up donations really soon it won't matter how she does in any state. Follow the money.

[jackson_dem]

12. I was shocked to see that ZERO Clinton ads ran on any of the stations that were on

Apparently she doesn't. If she manages to win PA--even by 3-5 points it will be an amazing feat. You have to be on the ground here to see the disparity between the two campaigns due to the difference in resources.

[Zachstar]

18. 3-5 points is disaster for the Clinton campaign. Fire the goalpost movers

She HAS to win by 20 she HAS to pick up huge delegate gains. PA means everything.

She picks up just a few delegates and it will be nulled by an Obama win in North Carolina.

And worse than that. Because there are less delegates in play (PA has a huge amount) she has to win bigger in upcoming states just to start catching up to Obama.

Again fire the goalpost movers.

[virtualobserver]

30. hillary supporters must be in good shape with all of the exercise from moving goalposts

[Zachstar]

14. This is likely why they are pushing this forward now. They hope to try to get people to donate

It is highly likely that Clinton will use the victory speech to ask for donors hoping to pull in new donors because many of her main donors have maxed out long ago.

We will know how serious she needs donations once the report comes out today. My guess is very much so.

Problem for Clinton is. Obama will also be picking up donations from people who take the loss as a challenge for May. So along with the massive donations this month (from what I can tell looking at the new donor numbers in the past week based on Obama's front page and of course looking at people randomly saying they are donating to Obama) Obama is going to go into May EXTREMELY strong and will be able to put effort into states well downstream when Clinton has to work to prevent a big loss on the 6th.

[Zachstar]

10. How many times are yall going to use this point? PA is a Clinton firewall state.

That form of Damage control will not work.

If he reduces Clinton's lead to 15 or 10 then his efforts have had a noticeable impact that he will continue in remaining Clinton strongholds.

Clinton has needed PA to go big for her for months. Obama can afford to lose PA but he is putting it in play anyway.

And that annoys the fire outta yall doesn't it? I bet you had hoped Obama would move on after some speeches and stuff in PA eh?

Well people are working and people are not giving up. I know Yall will try to use that point when she wins by 5 or so. However, We will not be fooled. We will go into May strong and if Clinton is not defeated by May 6th she will be by June or the Convention.

[Yael]

13. Why do you hate young democrats?

:cry:

[Exilednight]

17. What city were you in? In Monroe county, a county Hillary is.........

expected to win, they were ads for Hillary on the radio and TV, same with Pittsburgh. In Philadelphia, Hillary has run no ads. Campaign advertising is targeted to specific audiences. Ads played in eastern PA will not be seen in western PA, and vice versa, and the same for north and south.

[jackson_dem]

20. The Philadelphia market (about 25 miles from Philly)

[Exilednight]

25. That is why. Obama will win Philly, and Hillary will lose. In fact.......

Hillary has been unable to fill a full slate of Delegates for Philadelphia. You don't invest money in a sure fire losing area.

[jackson_dem]

28. Philly is the most vote rich part of PA and given how close it will be she has to compete there

[Exilednight]

45. But she's not competing there. She is looking to make the difference by.........

by gaining votes in larger geographic areas that less densely populated. She will go after areas like the Poconos, Pittsburgh, and the Lehigh Valley.

Hillary will win PA, but she will only net a gain of 9 delegates.

[jackson_dem]

49. I am not sure about the Poconos but I believe the Lehigh Valley is in the Philly television market

If she isn't on the air here she isn't going to be on the air there.

[Exilednight]

53. The Lehigh Valley is out of the Scranton market. n/t

[PA Democrat]

21. Pittsburgh stations have been almost all Hillary ads.

I've seen only 2 Obama ads all week.

[Exilednight]

27. That's because she knows she will win Pittsburgh. Put money in the areas you know you will win.....

and get as many voters out as you can.

[PA Democrat]

39. Yeah, local paper reporting she has a 13 point lead in Pittsburgh

[jackson_dem]

42. She has to keep the margin down in Philly, though. Philly is 3x the size of Pittsburgh

[Exilednight]

51. But she knows she can't, and with limited money she has to put her .........

resources in places where a) it's cheaper to advertise and b) she can turn out more voters.

Philly is not the win all, be all of Pennsylvania. This is not a state of how the city goes the election goes. PA is big enough that she can off set the vote. Philly only has a population of 1.4 million.

Between Pittsburgh, the Poconos and the Lehigh Valley, Hillary can easily offset Philly.

Pittsburgh has a population of over 300,000 with a surrounding population of over 3 million that should go for Hillary. The Lehigh Valley, which Hillary should win, has a population of just under 800,000, and the Poconos have a population of about 300,000.

Should be a very easy 20+ point win for Hillary.

[PA Democrat]

57. That was my conclusion as well.

But Obama is still going after the youth vote in southwestern PA. He will be appearing on the University of Pittsburgh campus Monday evening. I hope that they have enough voting machines because it was a big issue in the 2004 election for university students in that part of Pittsburgh. Some of those college kids waited in line for 5 hours or more to vote. Supposedly they have addressed the problem, but we shall see.

http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/15914252/detail.html

[jackson_dem]

29. Wow that is surprising. It is the exact opposite in Philadelphia

That is good to hear. :thumbsup:

[Tellurian]

19. Obama did the same thing in my state. People were angry and annoyed at the constant tv ads..

All the pushiness from his supporters and a flood of adverts worked against him in my state. Every few minutes we were interrupted by his ad speeches and the telephone never stopped ringing until we finally took it off the hook.

[Zachstar]

22. What state are you in?

[Tellurian]

59. I'm in New England..

we were totally for Clinton in spite of the bloviating Kennedys and Kerrys making complete fools of themselves by endorsing Obama minutes before the Primary. Many people were incensed at their blindsiding insulting behavior and voted for Clinton in spite of it.

[Zachstar]

61. Supers can endorse who they want. If supers voted based on polls and vote results Obama would lead

In superdelegates by now.

[Tellurian]

70. And by the same token they can abandon Obama for a real president...

Sen Clinton!

[jackson_dem]

32. Good point--it may cause a backlash

While he isn't flooding radio stations he does have a considerable radio presence. I have never heard a Clinton radio ad.

[mckeown1128]

60. I thought so too... but apparently...

according to the news "analysts" (if you want to call them that) PA is supposed to be an ad friendly state. It is my understanding that the ads are more meant for those blue collar workers who don't have that much time to watch TV and who wait till the last minute to decide(because they are supposed to have less time to become "informed" about the candidates)

[Maine-ah]

44. heh, it worked rather well in Maine

I don't even remember any tv ads from either candidate, but I got about 6 calls from Obama's campaign and non from HRC's.

As Maine Goes.....right?

[bowens43]

66. ROFLMAO! so says the hillary crusader.....

You people are hilarious. I understand your bitterness but come on, get real.

[GoldieAZ49]

33. He spent $10 million on the ad buy for PA

I think it was 4 or 5 to one ads running against Hillary's ads, on the news last night, sounds like more from what you saw.


He is out doing Romney on the cost per delegate.

[Zachstar]

56. The people gave him that money to spend.

If they thought he was using it poorly then why is many MANY more donations flooding in?

The donors want him to put PA in play. Otherwise donations would have dried up.

[rug]

35. I even saw Billy Mays hawking Obama.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

43. Hillary was "inevitable" and had gigantic name recognition

and where she is today, and the type of campaign she's running today
speak of either incompetitance or poor judgement or both.

[Zachstar]

54. Bingo!! From day 1 it looked like Clinton was going to be the nominee

Look at the massive amounts of supers who flocked to her almost the min she announced. This campaign was hers to lose and Obama's to win.

These days her supporters are reduced to using sayings like a 5-10 point win means anything good to the Clinton campaign despite the fact that PA has been a firewall state for Clinton since nearly day 1.

I want to make it Clear that because of this late in the game.. Anything but a massive win for Clinton win in PA means disaster for her campaign.

Obama has put PA into play despite major odds against him and I hope Clinton supporters will try to just enjoy the battle for votes rather than try moving the goal posts.

[elocs]

46. Here in Wisconsin, for our primary, I saw Obama ads long before I say any for Clinton.

Even when Clinton ads started, Obama ads were much more frequent. His ads were well done, inspiring, and not negative at all. I'm not shedding any crocodile tears for Hillary. If she had the money to match or outspend Obama, she would be doing it. Too bad, so sad, especially for the people waiting to paid by the Clinton campaign.

[chascarrillo]

47. You're the leader of a young Democratic organization?

Our future is fucked.

[jackson_dem]

50. lol the Obama campaign disagrees

I accept this implicit endorsement from the Obama campaign. ;)

[Ian David]

52. Most importantly, he's going to be on The Daily Show Monday night. n/t

[BlooInBloo]

64. So basically, The Daily Show is part of the Obama GOTV effort. Cool!

[IsItJustMe]

55. I don't see why he would be making up excuses to begin with. Hillary, it seems to me, is the only

one playing that game.

[ecstatic]

58. Because nobody is donating to Clinton. She's done

No ads = no grassroot support. Obama should run ads frequently because his donors have overwhelmingly donated and asked him to give it everything he's got.

[Zachstar]

62. Good point!

If they thought otherwise then why are seeing tens of thousands of new donors in a 48 hour time period on top of people continuing to donate?

The donors want PA in play and Obama is putting PA in play. My view is that once the amount raised is known at the start of may. Obama will have gotten near or surpassed his earlier records in fund raising. And he will be able to put effort into states downstream that Clinton cant even touch because of the lack of funds she will have. And because she will HAVE to focus on keeping Obama from winning in Indiana.


We will know more today. However I suspect what we will find in the reports is not good for Clinton.

[jazzjunkysue]

68. Only a small number of supporters will give her $$ now-Those who know she'll lose but need her

support in the senate. There are industries and lobbys who need her backing as a senator. They know she's losing, but will "donate" anyway to help her pay her bills.

The civilian donors at this point are the real patsys. They're emptying their checkbooks for a lost cause and will receive nothing in return. And that's a shame because the dems could have used that $$ in the offence against McCain. We'll need every penny to fight the GOP slime machine when it goes fully online.

[bowens43]

65. He doesn't need an excuse.

A 10 point loss will still be a win for Obama . He has decimated her in 30 point lead. Keep moving the goal posts though, I love watching you spin like whirling divirsh.

Hillary on the other hand , if she doesn't win this by at least 20 points is going to be in dire need of excues. Of course , she always has excuses....that who she is...it's always someone else's fault..

[CakeGrrl]

69. He has the money to SPEND; Hillary doesn't. The people gave it to him for exactly that reason.

You're spinning like the Clinton campaign because a(nother) state that she had no business losing will be very competitive thanks to a great effort by Obama.

He's not the one who blew a 20+ point polling lead here.

The demographics here are supposedly all in favor of HRC.

If Obama loses but makes it as close as OH, then good on him. There's no shame in losing small on his part when HRC was the one who had the lead to lose. All the better if the net delegate gain is as small as OH, because that will easily be offset by an Obama win in NC assuming the Clinton campaign finances hold out.

[Bensthename]

71. He will have gained more votes and delegates coming from 26 points down.,.

Even if he loses by a few, that is a lot more delegates and votes that he would have not gotten. The question is why did Hillary lose a 26 point lead..

[anonymous171]

72. Actually, Bittergate gives him that excuse.

:rofl:

[grantcart]

73. Thanks for the update and I am glad to hear that Obama is still on his game