Clinton supporters: Define a 'win' in Pennsylvania

[Stinky The Clown]

It seems to me that unless she wins by a huge margin - probably has to be in 'landslide' territory - she loses. A four or five or six point margin over Obama effectively does **nothing* for her delegate count. It just keeps the race where it is.

I'd say what it does is simply prolong a rancorous primary season for no good reason.

There seems to be no likely scenario under which she can win. None. And to be honest, even in the highly unlikely event of a blowout for her in Pennsylvania, then what? More 'fighting on for the American people'?

I'm one of the American people. I got a message for Clinton: Please don't 'fight on' on my behalf. Just drop out.

I'm sorry, I went off on a tangent.

Please explain to me what a win in Pennsylvania looks like, how it helps her, and why she should continue to prolong this primary.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Play with the delegate calculator to get a tangible feel for how much she needs to win by.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[Stinky The Clown]

4. If she takes 70% of the vote, she's still short .... by exactly 100 delegates.

No way she makes that up.

But, that's my question. What does a Clinton "win" in Pennsylvania look like?

[rug]

2. 51%. It's the math.

The rest is spin.

[tekisui]

10. A win is a win.

An Obama win by 51% would be a show stopper for Hillary. If she wins at all, she will move on to more contests.

I don't think anything less than a 10+ point win for Hillary will change the media story in her favor. She won't be the Comeback Kid unless it's a Big Win, IMO.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. You really don't believe that, do you?

If she wins by 51/49, the delegate count goes to 1699 to 1539.

How is that a win? yeah, sure, she 'won' the Pennsylvania contest's popular vote ........ the bigger question then becomes: so what?

No, she has to win at landslide rates every contest going forward.

That's ain't gunna happen.

[rug]

15. If she takes 6 or 7 of the last 10, even by 51%, it changes the political calculus.

Since neither of them can get to 2025 under their own steam, it is a political decision for the supers to make.

[Gore1FL]

33. After afashion it is up to the SDs

But getting a handful is a lot easier that a vast majority.

Obama is currently 140 ahead in pledges and Super Delegates. He'll gain more in NC that he'll lose in PA. To be really really gracious, lets say he's only 100 ahead after everything else...

That means, of the 305 left, she would need 203 (or 67%) to win.

In reality, he'll probably be in the range of 130-150 ahead. In those cases of the 305 left she would need 218 (or 71%) to 228 (75%) to win.

This has been over since Wisconsin. There is simply no compelling argument to be made that could reasonably turn a super majority+ of super delegates to overturn the pledged delegates.

[RiverStone]

21. Agreed, but...

Hillary's goal is to win by staging a coup with the SuperD's.

We may have to wait till the May 6th primaries for the rest of the country to really get it - unequivocally, that Hillary will not win unless she drags us through the morass all the way to the convention for a floor fight.

She gets a win on Tues, this dance continues.

My next hope is Obama cleans her clock in NC, and gets a 5+ point win in Indiana. Those two wins will result in a surge of SD support the following week and by mid-may, Hillary is counted out.

[Pirate Smile]

29. I think May 6th is when this will end - after North Carolina and Indiana, the SuperD's will

flock to Obama ending it.

It is my Birthday too so I'll consider it a great Birthday Present when Barack wins big in NC and smaller in Indiana. :party:

[papau]

25. I suspect a 5% win is the min - but it is certainly not higher - & Zog has Obama leading

[Gore1FL]

34. Also included in the math

is another 158 delegates off the table.

Santa Anna won the Alamo, and the Japanese won earl Harbor. How'd that go?

[yourguide]

3. Considering she was ahead by as much as 20%

anything less than double digits is a loss.

[BlooInBloo]

6. 26% was the most I saw.

[yourguide]

7. I stand corrected, thank you!

[ruggerson]

5. In a state where this entire campaign has been played out for a solid month

and where Obama has outspent her 3 to 1, I'd say if she wins by 5% or more, it's a big win.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. Yeah, but ........

.... so what?

ASs I noted above, if she wins by 40 points (70/30) she STILL trails by 100 delegates.

The math stopped working a long time ago.

[ruggerson]

13. In one of the latest polls (yeah I know, another poll)

Most Democrats felt, by a wide margin, that the cumulative popular vote should have more weight with the SD's than the pledged delegate count.

I've read a couple of analyses that seem to indicate she could be slightly ahead in the popular vote at the end of all this.

We'll see. Personally, I think he's got the nomination in the bag because the SD"s are too fearful of alienating his supporters. But you never know in politics.

[Inuca]

18. A win by just a few percentage points

will make it impossible to get a majority of the popular votes, EVEN counting FL, or so says MSNBC's Chuck Todd who seems to be pretty good with his numbers and overall one of the most decent talking heads on TV.

I pray and hope that in 2 weeks (after IN and NC) it will be finally over and we can all start pulling together before it really is too late.

[papau]

24. I agree - but she still needs to win by more than 1% - a 5% spread would be a great win IMO

[qazplm]

30. hasnt he outspent her

because he's outraised her?

[stillcool]

38. I thought the goal post was at 20+

Pennsylvania is "Hillary Country". This is where she shows she can catch up in delegates.

[Pirate Smile]

9. It is over. I wish they would just accept it and deal with it.

It was over after Wisconsin because we knew that even if she won Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island that it really wouldn't change things - and it didn't (I know that Obama actually got more delegates out of Texas).

It is over.

Our party is supposed to be reality-based - what the hell happened? It is tiresome to say the least (massive understatement).

edit to add - Sorry, I probably shouldn't have posted here since it was aimed at Clinton supporters.

[ps1074]

12. Here is what I think

She needs a margin of victory that will put her ahead in the popular vote (MI and FL included). She will then change the tune to "we're ahead in the popular vote" and take it to the convention.

[Stinky The Clown]

17. Thanks for the first really logical answer

I personally think that the argument ("I have the popular vote so it should be me") is both bogus at its core and, even more importantly, VERY dangerous to the party.

Do you know how big a win she needs in PA to do that? I don't.

[ps1074]

27. I am not sure

I think a 150,000 votes margin will put her ahead (MI and FL included) in the popular vote.

For the record - I am not a Clinton supporter :)

[Inuca]

19. MI can NEVER be included in any count

Nobody can take that seriously. There is an argument (that I do not agree with, but that's beside the point) to be made for FL. As I just mentioned in another post in this thread, without a solid victory Tuesday, even the popular vote becomes out of reach even if FL is counted.

[stillcool]

37. Funny...I was just thinking that...

and I stopped and asked myself why would it be fair to count Florida? I keep reading about the amazing turnout, but Florida has 4 million Democrats, and less than half that voted. I think it is media seepage in my brain.

[otohara]

39. Florida Maybe, Michigan No Fucking Way

absolutely not!

[slinkerwink]

14. she has to win by double digits to continue on

[NorthCarolina]

16. I can't help but think that if Hillary wins by 1 vote she will continue her campaign

She has said many times she plans to go all the way to the convention, and based on what I have seen to date I think that is exactly what she intends to do. I'll go one farther and say that is she would lose by 1 vote the same scenario would apply. I really think this is a "if I can't win, I'm going to make damn sure he doesn't either".

In light of the Clinton revelation on her views of the Progressive base of the party, I am quite sure that as a hard core conservative DLC member, she would much rather see the likes of a John McCain in the White House, or any conservative Republican for that matter, than a quasi-Liberal like Barak Obama.

[Stinky The Clown]

20. How can you even call him a "quasi-liberal"

His voting record is pretty much identical to hers. His policy statements are pretty much identical to hers.

They're both too conservative (middle of the road, to some) for my taste. I could even accept that if they had other things going for them. I don't see either of them as being extraordinary.

[NorthCarolina]

23. I call him quasi-Liberal because

I consider someone of the caliber of a Kucinich to be the epitome of a "Liberal" or "Progressive" if you prefer that term. Obama does exhibit "some" Liberal tendencies with his "people funded" campaign being a prime example. Hence I used the term "quasi-"Liberal.

[Name removed]

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[BzaDem]

26. By enough votes to lead to her winning by the popular vote.

[DerekJ]

28. That's a good criterion.

[GoesTo11]

31. We're playing by twilight zone rules

Winning delegates doesn't matter - the math and all. It's all about causing some sort of political earthquake that causes MASS defection from Obama among superdelegates - both committed and uncommitted, and maybe even pledged delegates.

Different wins are different stories in trying to cause something big to happen.

Obama wins - lights out.

1% - 10% -- Let's her stay in the game, but no story. After NC she's got no more firewall, lost the last state, and is still way down in the delegate count.

10%-18% -- helps her a little.

>20% -- mixes things up a lot, as people will talk about and think about how and why this happened.

[Petey Wheatie]

32. If Obama loses yet ANOTHER big state...

...it's time for him to go.

[Gore1FL]

35. ...to the convention with a majority of pledged and super delegates.

[stillcool]

36. by 20+?...

isn't that where the Clinton Campaign put the goal post?

[Stinky The Clown]

40. I stopped my goal post tracking about three months ago.

They moved it every day, it seems.

I guess when you're clearly losing, the only recourse is to change the definition of winning.

[Awsi Dooger]

41. Forcing Obama to improve

That's a win in PA, a Hillary triumph, preferably by decisive margin, that enables Obama to extend his primary campaign and get the damn kinks out. A bit less pompous would be nice.

Look at his deficit among whites and older voters and Hispanics, etc. How is that going to change if he goes into hibernation and allows the GOP to slowly define him?

Our race is the main event and Obama needs more work. How can we have boxing related threads here so often, yet want to pretend a young newcomer with a flimsy resume and the title match 7 months away doesn't need the additional sparing and road work?

Whatever fits.