PREDICTION: Hillary's going to get trounced on Tuesday.

[dave123williams]

Polling is now clearly almost meaningless.

I remember when Hil ran for the Senate in NY for the first time.

Quinnipeac had her *tied* with Lazio the night before the election.

She beat him by 17 points.

I believe the shoe is on the other foot in PA. Polling from the powers that be....says they're tied.

I'm seriously doubting that.

I no longer trust the punditry, reporters, or anyone remotely interested in preserving the status quo on either side of the aisle to tell me the fucking time.

Ergo, Obama pulls a shocker win.

Discuss.

[slinkerwink]

1. NO! Clinton will win by 12. It's the undecided voters, stupid.

[crankychatter]

18. 25% of Registered Dems are NEW and unpolled

not saying you're wrong... but there's one point three million folks that aren't polled in PA

I have NO idea what's gonna happen

Another factor, even in the MSM, the fact that Clinton cannot win is sinking IN... and the FACT that the primary is HURTING OUR CHANCES IN NOVEMBER NOW... is sinking in...

This is what momentum is all about...

plan for the worst... hope for the best.... keep doing the hard work ya'all are doing... even if part of that work is lowering expectations...

Consider THIS... with an expectation of a large loss for Obama... as you describe.... a VICTORY, no matter HOW small will be a MANDATE for Clinton to drop out, eh?

[earthlover]

33. No the goal posts will be moved again....if Obama does not win by 20+ points he loses

They will talk about his inevitibility pierced, all the advertising he did, and he couldn't buy a mandate. Just goes to prove that if Obama wins by only 15 points, it is a clear end to Obama's momentum and a victory for Hillary.

Remember Mighty Puerto Rico!

[SoCalDem]

37. You forgot about Guam

They probably luvs themselves a buncha-hillary

[populistdriven]

49. You forgot about Poland nt

[SoCalDem]

50. She may need some delegates from Poland..

:)

Northern Indiana has a LOT of Polish people.. :)

[tekisui]

Polls this week are meaningless.

The trend 3 weeks to one week out show it will be within 10%, either way it goes.

Anyone winning with more than 10% would shock me.

[papau]

10. Zog has the last days PA polling with Obama beating Clinton.

[PBS Poll-435]

13. Not true...

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

[papau]

??? - the link says Obama over Clinton in PA 46-44 in most current days polling

Pollster John Zogby: "Okay, so let's play Confound the Pollsters. Obama, who polled a mere 40% yesterday had a good today at 46% to Clinton's 44%.

[PBS Poll-435]

22. I think their poll goes for two days...

So that 40 & 46 are averaged.

Hence the 46-43 Clinton

[tekisui]

14. The last day polling is nearly always inaccurate.

I think the numbers a week out, averaged are closer to what will happen.

It's the 10-12% Undecided that could really swing this thing one way or the other.

[papau]

21. So far the undecided are not breaking for either Obama or Clinton

[cliffordu]

2. Just looking at the difference in the size of the crowds on the latest

photographs pasted here at DU, I'd say Obama is going to steamroll over the Hill.

At least that's how I see it......:patriot:

[MindMatter]

51. We can hope so, but here is the bitter reality about new registrants

If they weren't registered before, it is because they are too lazy or apathetic. We can hope that the Obama campaign gets them fired up do do something they haven't cared about, but most of them will probably give it a pass when they wake up on Tuesday.

Those comments don't apply to the tens of thousands of young people who are getting their first chance to vote this time around, of course. I have a lot of hope for that generation. The two or three generations in front of them basically suck.

[ingac70]

3. I certainly hope so...

It would be nice to send her packing sooner rather than later.

[mwb970]

15. This is exactly the comment I was about to post!

You said it better than I would have.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

4. Remember New Hampshire.

Every time Hillary looks like she's going to fall, she keeps coming back.

[Kahuna]

7. Tears and smears saved the day for her there. Dare she resort to tears again?

:shrug:

[SoCalDem]

38. or spontaneously combusts

she's wound pretty tightly these days...anything can happen :scared:

[Kablooie]

46. Everyone wants a president that cries over stressful situations.

It's what our country has been missing ever since it's inception.

If you hear her sobbing at 3 AM, you'll know she got the call.

[izquierdista]

28. Like a ptomaine burrito

Like athlete's foot.
Like cotton candy and beer after a carnival ride.
Like Jehovah's witnesses at the front door.
Like mildew on a shower curtain.
Like fire ants on the front lawn.

[Voice for Peace]

47. LOL worse than Jehovahaha's witnesses.. truly. They were just here.

[rocktivity]

31. Obama got the moral victory in NH by losing by less than four points

proving that his Iowa win hadn't been a fluke, and that exercising the audacity of hope DOES get results. He's won twice as many contests as Hillary since then.

:headbang:
rocknation

[NC_Nurse]

5. I'd LOVE that! Even though I'm still hoping that we will get to put the final

nail in her campaign's coffin! :toast:

[Kahuna]

6. I'm hoping that the voters realize it is time to solidy support for the canidate

who will ACTUALLY BE the nominee. :eyes:

[PM7nj]

8. Possible, but not realistic.

If anything, I think the pollsters might be understating her support so if she wins huge it will be played in the media as a SHOCKER and she will be "back from the dead" just like after New HAmpshire and Ohio.

[quantass]

44. exactly! I am still expecting a Clitnon win by 10-12pts

[BeyondGeography]

9. Lots of older folks in PA...they don't show up at rallies but they vote

and they go for her in a big way.

I'm inclined to believe the polls, much as I admire your spirit.

[Cosmocat]

29. BIngo ... From Pa ...

All the other talking head nonsense aside, the one demographic about Pa that makes it a Hill state is the old people ...

Flat out ...

I want BO to win here and put her down, I really do, and his campaign has worked SO hard here ... Up in Central Pa, there is a guy who had Obama tents up during our festivals LAST SUMMER ... Hill's campaign didn't even have a rep up here until a month ago ... We have gotten two calls from Hill's campaign from out of state, just two hours ago a local knocked our door for BO ...

But ... And, and it is the truth, the "establishment" dems up here went to her out of the gates, and the old people are behind her ...

I will be pleasantly surprised if he can get within 5 points of her ...

[dbmk]

40. Under 5 percent will kill her.

That will net her 4 delegates. 6 if she gets lucky with the numbers in a district.

[AllentownJake]

11. No one knows what's going to happen

All I can tell you is that in all urban media markets Hillary has gone 100% negative.

In all rural/subburban media markets its 50/50.

A week ago she was running positive cheery ads than suddenly they all changed to be anti-obama in my market.

I don't know what's going to happen Tuesday. All I know is her change of strategy says something.

[Warren Stupidity]

12. Unfortunately, I doubt that.

She will likely win by less than 10%. Despite the fact that she has to win by 20 points or more to actually make a difference, she will stay in the race and continue to throw mud at Obama.

[DB1]

16. Unfortunately that is the most likely scenario.

[Eurobabe]

17. Polls, schmolls, Obama by +2

Fuck the polls. :hi:

[elfin]

19. She is going to win - and no matter what the margin will use it

to tear the party to shreds into the convention with an eye on 20012.

[Bensthename]

24. ding ding ding.. You win a prize.

That is exactly right.

[MindMatter]

52. She will do that even if she loses PA

Remember, most of the MSM still says she won Texas, which justified her staying in through PA.

She has already said she isn't getting out no way nohow. If the media can't figure out she lost Texas, don't expect them to be any more observant about PA.

Probably a moot point though, because my guess is she wins PA by 5 points, prolonging this circular firing squad by another 3 weeks at least.

[existentialist]

20. You may be right, but

given the logistics, and where Pennsylvania stood a few weeks ago, any single digit loss for Obama would be a strategic victory.

The Clinton machine could spin a five or eight point win as a major turnaround, but it wouldn't be. for Pennsylvania to bring her any significant hope she would probably need to win by about 12 points or more--and even then Obama would still be the favorite.

[Bensthename]

23. I hope Obama wins by .1%.

It's always tough to lose by a small margin.

[NorthCarolina]

25. The biggest segment unaccounted for may be

the Diebold effect.

I am hoping the networks do some exit polling as it will be quite interesting to see how the exit polling and the official vote tally match up when it's all over.

[dailykoff]

26. Another exit-poll defying "comeback" would not surprise me.

In fact I think it's inevitable. The big money is on Hillary and they like to see their ponies win.

[kid a]

27. Clinton by 7

[harun]

34. I live in PA, am for Obama, and say it will be HRC by 5-10

Which isn't enough for her to overtake Obama.

[stray cat]

30. Clinton should win handily by double digits - its her core constituency supposedly

[Lindsey]

32. I have no idea. Since * was installed into the Oval Office...I have no idea

about anything when it comes to what will happen. All I can do is visualize Obama winning and pray with all my heart that he does. :shrug:

[dano81818]

35. disagree, i say she wins PA by 8 points

for whatever reason there was alot of pre existing support in PA for hillary. obama started way behind there.

[TahitiNut]

36. It's the DELEGATES, stupid. Unless Clinton gets 18+ more PA delegates than Obama ...

... the fiction of "closing the gap" can be tossed back into the sewer from which it was pulled. The polling of the 'popular' vote in PA does not reflect the delegate allocation process. Since Clinton has the full support of the Rendell machine, her campaign has every advantage it needs. Thus, a failure to get a margin of 18 or more delegates over Obama should be regarded as an aria by Bevery Sills.

[SoCalDem]

39. Yup.. it's like a kid with a perfect SAT being challenged for a scholarship

by a kid who can stuff 25 hotdogs in his mouth..

Both are impressive achievements, but the one that counts isthe SAT score...

PRIMARIES ARE NOT ABOUT THE RAW POPULAR VOTE.. NEVER HAVE BEEN..

IT'S ABOUT DELEGATES DELEGATES DELEGATES

It's surprising to me that BILL CLINTON knew all about this fact, and yet his wife seems startled by it..

[TahitiNut]

41. Everyone knows that SAT scores are 'elitist' - hotdogs are patriotic.

Ever notice that 'patriotic' and 'idiotic' have the same last 5 letters? :silly:

[Life Long Dem]

42. Yeah, don't trust MSM,

They are currently trying to portray Obama like he is "losing ground". That's why you have been seeing this said right here when the polls haven't even taken into account the full effects of the debate. But now since they have been able to poll the full effects of the debate we see the polls show Obama gained.

Also MSM has not even shown the big Philly crowd Obama had Friday of 35,000+ voters. A record for Obama and the media has a blackout. If they showed that huge crowd you wouldn't be thinking he is "losing ground".

I think people are tuning out MSM - CNN, MSNBC, FOXNEWS, and whoever talks bullshit such as the recent ABC debate. It sure has shown it in the polls and the Obama wins. It would be great if the Sean Hannity's can spew there smear tactics to no effect on the people voting.

It will be nice for Obama to take it home in PA and kick that (I'll be nice) out of the race on Tuesday.

My thoughts on what Obama thinks in regard to how he is doing in PA. I think he see's that he can win in PA. We are seeing an extra push for votes and extra commercial ads in PA. He went to sections of PA where I think he didn't plan to go. But then again if he is within 15 points in PA he still did good.

[Awsi Dooger]

43. That Lazio race is one of my favorites of all time

Quinnipiac wasn't the only one who blew it. Zogby chimed in with a late poll insisting it was only a 2 point race, or something like that.

It caused a stampede of Lazio money on the betting sites. Odds on Hillary plummeted. Instead of an out price I was snapping up Hillary wagers at bargain rates, not much worse than even money.

It felt like stealing, given the realities of that state, and the long term advantage Hillary had in polling, throughout the previous months.

The market sites are more sophisticated now, although Obama backers amusingly tried to attach momentum to Ohio, overlooking demographics and trying to pretend it was only 50-60% likelihood for Hillary. Thank you very much. :)

I've never as certain in primaries. There's always potential for a late avalanche among like-minded voters, and polling is not as accurate.

But Hillary has demographic advantage and unless the energy gap is extreme she'll carry the state.

[Kablooie]

45. Even if she is soundly trounced, she won't concede.

And it's likely that she will do pretty will there in spite of all the talk here online.

[polmaven]

48. I disagree with you about the winner,

but I will agree that polling in now clearly almost meaningless.

REMEMBER NEW HAMPSHIRE!

Think that'll go down in history with REMEMBER THE ALAMO!...? :hi: