Pollster is showing a 10 point spread nationally....(Obama pulling away)

[Flabbergasted]

http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[AtomicKitten]

1. That's a beautiful trend line you've got going on there.

:thumbsup:

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. I love the look of that flabbergasted...thanks for posting. nt

[high density]

3. You mean there are more polling agencies beyond Gallup?

Who woulda thunk it?

[dempartisan23]

4. more great news.

[dchill]

5. Gallup has him back up today 47-45.

:kick:

[Flabbergasted]

6. This is also the lowest average for Clinton since about August. nt

[TheDonkey]

7. Obama is going to win.

I really am now starting to appreciate what Obama has done this campaign. Even since 2004 I have been an Obama supporter and new he'd be president in 2008 but my wishful thinking is becoming a reality.

Obama has had to battle a popular former president, a (once) popular former first lady, the media, and the RW slime machine and is still in this game and very poised to win the primary. McCain will not know what hit him in the GE.

Thank you Obama supporters for making my dream and millions of others dream become a reality!

[Flabbergasted]

10. If Hillary had ever been truly popular she would have the nomination....

Her negatives were always close to 50%, now above, and that is one reason why she is losing.

[TheDonkey]

12. I don't think that is the case

She was popular in the democratic party (not in the general public) republicans and independents have long disliked her but democrats were all behind her. Need we forget earlier this campaign season when she was some 30-40% up on Obama and was being considered the presumptive nominee.

But Obama has fought and Clinton has flamed out.

[Flabbergasted]

14. She is winning with democrats even today but it is the independents that have made the difference...

this election.

I'm not discounting what you are saying. In fact you're right.

[Bensthename]

8. Why couldn't Edwards ever poll better then Gore? That is odd.

I think if he could have added more to his 2 Americas speech he could have had more support.

[karynnj]

20. I think it wasn't Edwards words

It was that many of us either were unimpressed with him in the 2004 primaries where he really looked insubstantial next to Kerry, Dean, Gephardt and Clark - all of whom had resumes that made his pale in comparison. I was in this category. I also was less impressed with his sunniness and words than most, but he could have changed that had he been an exceptional VP nominee - but he wasn't Al Gore or Lloyd Bensen.

I think what he needed was a resume that would back up the words, not more words. His words were the best thing about him.

[grantcart]

9. There was this funny note at pollster about this weekend

April 18, 2008
Why Weekend Updates May Be Slow

Back in September, Eric Dienstfrey, ever the model employee, asked politely if he might be able to take a week off in April for the Passover holiday and to attend to a family obligation.

I said: "April? Please. That should be an easy month." And in a managerial move that was not the most far sighted, I told him it would be fine to take off the week off starting on April 18.

Good planning, huh?

And of course, had I thought about it for a minute, I would have remembered that I would be likely to have travel plans of my own for Passover (which begins tomorrow night), especially given that April 20 is also my parent's 50th wedding anniversary...and my wife's birthday.

So this is a long way of saying that Eric will be off for the next week and in about 15 minutes I'll going offline to enjoy all the pleasures of a six hour drive from Washington, DC to Cleveland Ohio. As such, updates will certainly be infrequent for the rest of the day and over the weekend. Knowing how closely everyone (including yours truly) is following the Pennsylvania primary, I will post and update as often as I can.

Meanwhile, for those alert readers who often email us with the latest survey, please feel free to post comments to this post today with links to any new polls (just remember, no more than 2-3 links per comment or it won't publish).

And finally, if you happen to be dining in Breezewood, PA later tonight and see a guy trying to concentrate on his laptop while his wife and two young kids eat, well, that will probably be me.




-- Mark Blumenthal

[Pawel K]

11. So newsweek had him at +20. This is now +10. And yesterday Hill's supporters were saying it was over

for Obama. Just like they did when he slippled a little during the Wright controversy.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[futureliveshere]

13. Thanks.. great news...

[meow mix]

15. K&R

[krkaufman]

16. Wow, that's quite a change from the flatline Obama had for a while ...

... (though Hillary's decline is consistent with past Pollster mash-ups)

[Spider Jerusalem]

18. Flatlined through about November of 2007.

Greater attention and exposure and the ratcheting up of the campaign mechanism in preparation for Iowa and New Hampshire have more to do with that (remember Hillary's massive advantages in name recognition, and the early weakness of Obama's support among African-Americans).

It's more significant to note that Hillary's support peaked at about 45%, well before the start of primary season.

[krkaufman]

19. No, Obama's Pollster nat'l average had appeared to have flatlined in previous weeks ...

... even just slightly having a downward slope, but this latest graph changes that. (I'm not sure historical pollster.com graphs are available.)

[boppers]

17. I love the curve where the campaigning stared.

Hillary's rise stopped, Obama skyrocketed.

[karynnj]

21. This graph is highly influenced by that last poll

If you match the lowest purple dot with the highest orange dot is about 20 points different, you see that one of the 2 last polls was very good for Obama. Given that it is at the end of the series and because it is very far from the rest of the data - that study is a high leverage point that is changing the curve significantly from what it would be without it. So the slopes of the last line segments are much steeper here than is likely reasonable.

That said the Obama line from about October is amazing. The curve looks like it got steeper starting in the beginning of December and then became even steeper than that in late January near when Edwards dropped out. (HRC had one of her few steep upward segments when Edwards left as well - possibly showing that his vote split. What is interesting is that for the last couple of months almost all the Obama dots are above the Clinton ones.