SUSA - Clinton 50 Obama 44

[ps1074]

A day before the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, it appears Hillary Rodham Clinton will fend off a late charge from Barack Obama, the latest SurveyUSA poll found.

Looking only at SurveyUSA numbers and ignoring the polls that have been released by 12 competing pollsters in Pennsylvania, Obama gained ground in a week when he was largely on defense and off-message. Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton ahead by 14 points. Monday, in a poll conducted using the identical methodology, SurveyUSA found Clinton ahead by 6 points.

A large shift of support occurred in the Philadelphia area and other parts of Southeast Pennsylvania, which includes most of the state's African-American population. The poll found that Obama finished strongly, ahead of Clinton by 14 points within that demographic. Among liberals, Obama began 18 points behind Clinton but finished 11 points ahead of Clinton. Among those who have not graduated from college, Clinton led by 28 points last week, but by 15 points Monday.

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/15943088/detail.html

[Eurobabe]

1. Don't.Pay.Attention.2.Polls. Bogus.Methodologies. n/t

[Coexist]

4. I usually don't - but SUSA has been pretty accurate this primary season

why is their methodology bogus?

[Dbdmjs1022]

2. That's quite a charge by Obama!

I'll take a 6 point split! That doesn't do Hillary any good!

GOBAMA!

[indimuse]

3. Bye Bye Obama and Obamcans..

You lose!!!! hahhaha

[Dbdmjs1022]

5. Yeah, because a 6 point win is totally going to propel Hil to victory.

:sarcasm:

And they say us Obamacans are delusional!

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Other Than The Most Delegates, Votes, And States, Obama Has NOTHING

ZERO.

Hill's in, and she's in to win!

[cali]

7. LOL!! delusional and desperate. This poll shows Obama

gaining, dear. And if it holds true, hillary is finished. A six point win in PA would end it for her.

[CherokeeDem]

11. I Have A Question...

You are for Hillary but you have a Rove cartoon with him salivating at the window of the "Obama Candy Store" at things like the Wright issue, etc? How do you explain that connection other than Hillary and Rove are no different? It would seem to me that Democrats regardless of who they support would never use Karl Rove to make their point unless the point was favorable to the Republicans or Hillary who is beginning to look like one and the same.

[rodeodance]

15. this one is better.

[cali]

32. how very wingnut of you. how unsurprising.

go post that crap on freeperville where you'll find a likeminded piggish audience.

[my3boyz]

12. She will win PA but LOSE the primary! How you like them apples? nt

[stillcool]

29. Don't forget where the goal post is!

Pennsylvania is "Hillary Country". This is her chance to prove she can catch up to Senator Obama. She is expected to win by 20+. Watch what happens!!

[thevoiceofreason]

8. Closing strong! Last night, someone "sneaked" a leak on this poll and said it was 12%

I even thought that was good! This is great!

[Azathoth]

9. The trend continues..Obama destroys Hillary in his firewall states while keeping it in single digits

in her firewall states.

[my3boyz]

13. I will be tickled beyond belief if this outcome pans out. nt

[jefferson_dem]

10. Latest results from Quinnipiac are virtually identical - Hillary 51, Obama 44

CLINTON LEADS OBAMA BY 7 POINTS IN PENNSYLVANIA,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 51 – 44 percent among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 50 – 44 percent last week, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
White voters back Sen. Clinton 57 – 38 percent, while blacks back Sen. Obama 84 – 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. A look at other subgroups shows:
• Women back Clinton 57 – 38 percent, while men are for Obama 53 – 42 percent;
• White Catholics are for Clinton 66 – 29 percent;
• Voters under 45 go with Obama 57 – 41, while older voters back Clinton 54 – 40 percent.
“Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“Sen. Obama got off message after his ‘bitter’ remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina. She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads – and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most.”
From April 18 – 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,027 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/042108%20PA%20PRES%20%2B%20BP.doc

[rodeodance]

16. Obama was counting on buying the election. But people are wiser than he thinks

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

26. Obama and his 1.5 million donors are trying to buy the election!

:rofl:

[CherokeeDem]

31. And the Clinton's are counting on...

coercing the people into supporting them.

[cali]

33. hey, dancer, Obama is closing the gap, dear.

Even YOU should be able to figure that out.

[rodeodance]

37. Please stop mocking my screen name.

[jefferson_dem]

39. 1.5 million donors.

Why do you hate democracy?

[bluestateguy]

14. I'll take a 6 point loss

That will only net Hillary a handfull of delegates, all which will be washed out in NC on May 6.

For weeks the Hill forces have been bragging that Survey USA is the most accurate pollster too.

[olkaz]

19. I agree with you.

But they're already posturing to make even a squeaker win out to be a HUGE MOMENTUM CHANGE.

"He spent like a billion dollars in Pennsylvania and still lost! OMG! Hillary is the next president now!"

Obama had 0% chance to win Pennsylvania. The fact that he may come within 9 points is amazing. Everybody knew beforehand that Pennsylvania was a lock for the Clintons.

Get ready to get seriously dizzy with all the spin.

[my3boyz]

20. I'm not going to be on the boards AT ALL on Wed. I won't give the satisfaction

of responding to their ridiculous posts. I will skip MSM coverage too because they will spin it like Hillary won the entire primary if she wins by 10 in PA. Oh she destroyed him! Oh Obama is in trouble. They will go on and on. Then reality (the numbers) will finally occur to them a few days later (as it did after Texas and Ohio).

[olkaz]

22. I'm with you.

Luckily, Wednesday I don't have any free time.

Wake up, work out, go to work, go to school, go to sleep.

On Thursday morning however, I'm going to have to load up on Dramamine.

On the plus side, the Hillary forum is going to be pretty entertaining.

[rug]

23. Ignore doesn't work outside GDP.

[IsItJustMe]

21. As an Obama supported, I am very happy with a 6 point loss. No significant delegate shift and it

makes it damn near impossible for Hillary to catch up in the popular vote. Very good news indeed.

You will always loose a few battles, but at the end of the day, it's winnig the war that counts.

[Diamond Dog]

17. Ironic that a six point win in PA will cost her the nomination.

She needs well over twice that to brace against the victory Obama will win in North Carolina.

[DemsUnited]

18. have been waiting for SUSAs final take. Thanks for posting.

:kick:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Down 14 from several weeks ago.

[Diamond Dog]

25. Expect the Clintonistas to spin her win into the ground.

Despite the fact that nobody expected Obama to win Pennsylvania - he only needed to engage in a holding action against her there, to ensure that the significant gains he made against her held.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. Look for confetti, ala Ohio.

Iow, a "big win" signifying nothing.

[Diamond Dog]

30. No doubt of it. Right-wingers are masters of deception.

The very act of raining confetti down on one's self is an attempt to signify that one has been victorious in the entire election, as opposed to an individual race - it's psychological manipulation.

[Dawgs]

27. That's great news for Obama.

Hillary needs to win by at least 12 to have any chance at the popular vote.

[Robbins]

34. PA

To all Obama supporters here Is what this means.

Hillary will win PA tomorrow but It Is likely to be In single digets and not 10 plus.

Hillary supportes will call this a upset and say Obama has failed because with all the money and ads
he couldn't pull It off.Remember never once has Obama lead here.The story should be he has gone from 20-30 points behind to only a few points behind Hillary and this Is with all the shit they have
been throwing at him.

Hillary will likely only get a few more delgates than him here.He will likely win North Carolina,and the fight will be for Indiana which according to polls Is better for him than PA.

Survey USA Itself shows he has gained.The last poll she was ahead by double digets now she leads by 6.

If you look closely at polls throughout the primary season from Survey USA they rarely have Hillary
higher than she actully gets,and at times she actully gets less than their polls say.Obama often gets better than they say he will do.

While everyone talks about California(which to Survey USA's credit they did get right) but they were
real wrong about Missouri my state.They had Hillary winning by 12 and Obama won by 1.

The only ways for Obama to pull a upset are If they following occur

The new registed voters are all Obama voters
They are not being polled
Undecideds break for Obama
There Is a backlash against Hillary among Liberals for the Move On Comments.

Keep all this In Mind.

[Buzz Clik]

35. Only one day before the primary, and Hillary doesn't have the votes to survive.

[MadBadger]

36. SUSA did another poll for KDKA and it said that he was down by 12

did they really do two polls?

[rodeodance]

38. and it was you that predicted Obama would win by a half point.