c'mon, be honest. admit it. you're worried about PA.

[cali]

Hillary supporters are worried that she'll be edged out or only win the state by a few points, thus effectively ending her run. Obama supporters are worried that it'll be a hillary blow out, and that the race will become tighter, giving hillary a chance to pull it off.

Underneath all the bravado and smack talk, everyone here is worried about how things will sugar off tomorrow.

[PBS Poll-435]

1. Sugar off?

That is a new one, for me.

[cali]

5. oops, sorry. it's a regional- very regional- colloquialism

it's derived from maple sugaring, and I forget that most people haven't ever heard the expression.

[PBS Poll-435]

6. Hey...thanks for sharing...

Really!

[thevoiceofreason]

16. You Vermonters!

Had a friend who introduced me to that phrase 25 years ago. I just fell out of my chair!

[mindfulNJ]

27. love it!

I may have to get that one going in CT! Do you Vermonters still say Jesum Crow too? I lived up there for 4 years when I was a kid and got in big trouble from the parents when I picked that one up!:)

[cali]

33. Ayup. Jeezum Crow is still heard

as is wicked good, wicked cool and wicked neat. And Jim Jeffords was frequently referred to as Jeezum Jim- not for any religiosity but because of his aw shucks way of speaking.

[mindfulNJ]

35. cool!

I didn't remember hearing "wicked" in Vermont. Heard it lots when I lived in Maine, though. I've lived in every N.E. state except N.Hampshire...it's the most beautiful region in the country, IMHO of course!;)

[nxylas]

39. I thought "wicked good" was a Bostonism

But I guess it could have spread to the rest of New England.

[cali]

41. I believe it originated in Maine and spread throughout most of NE

though I don't know that it was ever in common use in CT.

[mindfulNJ]

46. it isn't.

I have heard it said occasionally in my corner of the state (northeast corner), though.

[progressoid]

30. Sounds elitist.

:eyes:

[cali]

34. yep. all those twee sugarers in their posh sugar houses

sipping lattes or grand cru wines. Actually, I must admit that friends I used to sugar with, always had a dinner down in the sugar house at the end of the season and everyone always brought a bottle of the best champagne they could spring for.

[RichardRay]

38. I burned the roof of my mouth SO BAD

at a sugaring off. They made coffee with the barely reduced sap. I guess it boils at a temperature WAY higher than pure water does? We'd been out in the cold for several hours and came in to fresh cups of coffee. Just as my host/mentor was telling me to be careful I took a big hit of the coffee and spent the rest of the evening with snow packed to the roof of my mouth.

The next year I was more careful.

Thanks for reminding me...

And, I think you're right, everybody is worried, one way or the other. Fatigue is setting in. Senator Obama's stump speech now contains a reference to the fact that babies have been born, starting walking and are now starting to talk while he's been running for president.

[BlooInBloo]

32. hah! I like it! But up here, we're worried that Clinton will rain off

:rofl:

[Avalux]

2. I admit I'm worried.

Mostly worried about Big Eddie and the touch screens. Would have to think he'd intentionally skew for Hillary, but you never know. :shrug:

[Connie_Corleone]

3. We gotta have the pre-fight smack talk!

It wouldn't be GD: Politics without it.

[vi5]

4. Not afraid, just annoyed as hell.....

...I'll be less annoyed if she wins by more than 20 points because that will be something that could move and shift the race. It puts her back in the game and as much as I don't want that to be the case, I can't really complain if it happens legitimately like that.

But what will happen is the win will be minimal (under 10 points) and she and her supporters will walk around strutting like peacocks as though this means or changes anything when on the sheer factual face of it, it doesn't and the whole ordeal will drag on and on and on.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. Exactly.

It's over.

Still.

[nxylas]

49. That's probably what's gonna happen

I hate to quote Tweety, but he was correct when he said that "if she wins PA by even one vote, the confetti's gonna fall". Of course, in the unlikely event that Obama does win, I look forward to hearing the explanations of why Pennsylvania doesn't count.

[crankychatter]

56. Like Bush decreeing his mandate from the People and God Almighty

after losing the election and winning by a cheat squeak

[calmblueocean]

64. Too true. I'd rather have a good ol' fashioned routing than a close win.

Hillary needs an Obama collapse in order to get the nomination. I heard an analyst on the Bill Press show this morning say that each win that Hillary gets dulls Obama's momentum and could sway the superdelegates -- which is totally preposterous. Hillary MUST have more pledged delegates than Obama to win the nomination, or the whole Democratic ticket will collapse. She needs Obama supporters to win in the fall (just like Obama will need Hillary supporters) and for that to happen, the nomination has to be won on merit. The idea that either canididate could win the nomination via backdoor dealings with superdelegates is just a media fantasy, and the longer it festers, the harder it's going to be for people to ultimately switch sides and get behind the winner.

[C_U_L8R]

7. Looking at the delegate map of PA

I'm feeling pretty darn good for Obama.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. link?

[C_U_L8R]

20. There's one in today's Times

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/04/21/us/20080421_DEMS_GRAPHIC.html

Very few delegates in the middle.

[dbmk]

25. Take a look at this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5575980

I will do an update later today. Quite a few districts are being viewed as being very tight around a delegate flip. In both directions.

Turnout is going to be VERY important in terms of the popular vote too (in terms of the statewide delegates - I don't mean the race in general). And noone seem confident on a number there.

[C_U_L8R]

51. Excellent analysis dbmk

It's gonna be high drama tomorrow night.
Either way, it's a squeeker.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. Thanks, this is interesting. Do you think it could be one of those

deals where she wins the popular vote and he wins more delegates?

[40ozDonkey]

9. Nah, not really worried.

I was almost worried in mid-March when Hillary was up by 26%, now I'm just amused.

[PoliticalAmazon]

37. What DOES worry me...

...is the possibility that, even if she doesn't have a decisive win in PA, she will insist on dragging out the primary.

I fear she has the potential to become like a piece of toiletpaper stuck to the Democratic Party's shoe.

[IsItJustMe]

10. Spot on. Beyond all the bravado, we all have that little bug in the back of our minds called DOUBT.

[AtomicKitten]

11. The die is cast, the math is set, and it won't make any difference.

Her path to victory is virtually impossible.

[ScarletSniper]

12. Worried. Nope. Just ready for tthe PA vote to be over...and

glad the next primary is only two weeks away because the MEDIA sucks...it's the same shit over and over and over and over..

Sick of the PUNKdits..and their BS opinions...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. I don't think it's as much whether she can pull it off in the end - that

won't happen. But, what has happened is ever since she started attacking
him, he has slipped against McCain.

What I worry about is that she will stay in (for no other reason than
self-gratification) and ruin our chances in November.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

14. Yup, I'm worried

I'd like Obama to hit the mark of losing by less than 10%, but I really don't see it happening.

[Bonobo]

15. Me=worried.

I admit it.

[cali]

18. Me too.

And unlike a lot of O supporters, I think Hillary could still pull it out of the fire.

[Bonobo]

19. If I really thought Hillary had 0% chance, I would not still be in GDP.

I think she has about 10% chance.

Fortunately she has been trending down IMO.

She has been rattled and getting visibly weaker as Obama seems to gain strength from the process. That trend will continue for many reasons, not the least of which is because she is a "known quantity". She cannot gain new support, only lose it, while Obama gains support as people get to know him.

[Adelante]

17. I'm not worried

I don't know why :shrug:

[SoFlaJet]

21. In the words of Alfred E Neuman

what me worry?

[democrattotheend]

22. Nervous Obama supporter here

Couldn't sleep last night...kept envisioning new bad polls. Feeling better after learning that the SUSA poll on Kos last night was old, and that the new one shows him only down 6. That makes me optimistic that he can keep it single-digits, but demoralized knowing there's no way he is going to win.

[damonm]

67. I'm not.

He closed a 20-point gap! That alone, in a state where she holds all the cards demographically, is enough to make me turn handsprings at a single-digit loss.

[noel711]

23. I just want the darn thing over with....

I'm so sick and tired of ignorant television pundits
telling me what PA is like, and how we'll vote.

I know what PA is like, and I know how many will vote.

Sheesh... just get all the jerks outta my state
so we can go on with life, and they can go
annoy another state.

[stillcool]

24. I expect Hillary to win by 20+

in order for her to prove she might be able to catch up to Senator Obama's lead. I'm not worried. Pennsylvania is "Hillary Country". She's had it sewn up for quite a while now, and the goal posts have stayed in place.

[DangerousRhythm]

44. That's what I think.

Anything else will be a pleasant surprise, y'know? :)

[Pacifist Patriot]

26. Some of us are so sick of the whole damned thing we're worried....

it will be inconclusive and thereby allow the process to be dragged out even further not particularly caring who the personalities are, just wishing we could move on to the GE already.

[Abacus]

31. I'm worried

I'll be ecstatic about anything less than a 5 point win by Clinton.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

36. Not worried. It has been over since Wisconsin.

[alphafemale]

40. Not really. Just want to get it done. 6 weeks(?) between votes has been a long ass time.

This has been absolutely vicious.

[Window]

42. Que Sera, Sera

This primary season has gone on so long and has taken it's toll on me.



Peace:thumbsup:

[ecstatic]

43. I just hate the way the media AND Obama have accepted Clinton's framing

of this competition as one of the most crucial. Hello? Obama has won twice as many states!

[yodermon]

52. Intended audience of that message = PA voters.

At least from Obama's perspective.
The media likes it bcz it's more hype for them.

[Orsino]

45. Sorta? Not sure.

I think Clinton's going to win by several percentage points, get a net gain in delegates, and prolong the primary fight for another month or two based on PA (and possible a win in another state). I know that she really, really wants to be president, but we are losing time that could be better spent in x-raying McCain. I'm not sure that the primary struggle is doing long-term damage to either candidate, but it is letting McCain coast. Wen the Dems get serious about taking him on, he'll be very well rested.

[shadowknows69]

47. I'm confident he'll do better than expected

Unfortunately I think he needs to win to get this to end any time soon.

[Milo_Bloom]

48. I am worried in what this primary will do to Obama in the GE.

I've run the numbers a dozen different ways and she just doesn't have a logical path to the nomination.

There are only 305 SD's left and even if she won 60% of the SD's AND 60% in EVERY remaining contest, she STILL wouldn't have enough to hit 2025.

Obama, however, can get the nomination with only 40% of the remaining SD's and only winning NC and OR by less than 5 points, losing PA by 16 and losing other contests by 10.

However, the last thing we need is Obama going into the convention weakened from poor showings in the final contests.


So, yes, I am worried, but not because Clinton will be the nominee.. she won't. I am worried b/c Obama should be focusing on the GE now and not forced to suffer through nonsense attacks from within his own party and a 15 point victory for Clinton in PA, although not giving her enough delegates or power to win, will make her continue.

[Blue_Roses]

50. I don't know if it's worry or eager anticipation

for this thing to be over. I don't know if we can't take much more of this fighting. And Hillary. I have Hillary fatigue already. I'm ready to change my avatar once and for all to Obama and get this GE rolling. I'm holding out only for good luck. :D

[JohnnyLib2]

53. Recommended for honesty and vocabulary enrichment.

:applause:

[barack the house]

54. Why worry just make calls but be very respectful to voters when you do...

Plus call target districts that Sen. Obama needs.

[book_worm]

55. Yes, I'm for Obama but worried it could be Hill by double digits prolonging this

nominating contest and continuing to hurt the eventual nominee.

[Lucinda]

57. Worried? Not so much.

I think it's going to be a great day.

[cali]

59. the polls show that it's closed in the last few days

you should be worried.

[Lucinda]

61. I'm not. She'll do well.

[demwing]

58. Nah, I was worried about the FEC Financial Reports

I feel better now - Hillary spent herself into a loss, and Obama-once again-stomped her in donations received.

With this combo, it doesn't matter who wins PA. Hillary can win the battle, and will still lose the war.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5598844&mesg_id=5598844

[pompano]

60. I think the media....

is more worried about an Obama win or close enough the supers throw in the sponge.

They are all out of breath on TV. They know a good Clinton showing keeps this thing dragged out. Lets face it, traveling around, chasing candidates, and talking politics in an air conditioned studio beats hands down a plane ticket stapled to a time card for Billingbrook to camp out in Petersons front yard and kill time before the GE hoopla heats up. How boring. How obnoxious. Even chasing singers and hotel heiresses to jails and mental institutions gets old after a while, I would think. :shrug:

They ain't dumb.

Thats the way I see it?

[SaveAmerica]

62. I'm not worried, just ready to get the tally, hear Clinton announce she's withdrawing due to lack of

funds, and then get started with the fight to the General Election.

[PVnRT]

63. I think much of the primary hangs on Pennsylvania right now

One way or another, Wednesday is going to resolve a lot of this primary.

[crankychatter]

65. I want to see something amazing

It's hope

But my experience in America is that the bad guys almost always win.

The scene from Jacob's Ladder when the main character is taken to the emergency room and strapped to a gurney... he's rushed to the OR, thinking he's going to get help, but terrified... Then discovers, it's an Operating Room in HELL... he says "I WANT OUT OF HERE."

JUST before the doctor from Hell drills into his forehead, the Doctor says...

"There is NO out of here... you DIED, remember?"

[damonm]

66. Nah. Interested to see what shakes out & how the demographics break,

but worried? No. I expect that PA, like OH & TX before it, will decide nothing.

Obama will have closed the gap enough to deny Clinton much - if any - delegate gain, and Clinton's team will move the goalposts again.

[ClassWarrior]

68. No, I'm confident that it'll be a Hillary blow-out.

Her campaign's been managing expectations for weeks, driving down her "likely win" numbers. I'm convinced she'll win PA by 20 points. And if I'm wrong and she gets less than 20, I'll have a happy Tuesday night.

NGU.