**********The Good news/bad news in PA Polls for Obama supporters***********

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

PA is getting harder and harder to read, especially for poll junkies.

Here's the good news, part I, for Obama supporters:
Survey USA shows Clinton up 50-44. Why is this good news? With 2-3 exceptions throughout the ENTIRE primary season, SUSA has underreported Obama's support--and sometimes massively so.

Here's the bad news, part I:
SUSA, if you're not great at adding up to 100, is showing 6% Undecided/other. Why is this bad news? For this we turn to Zogby, who says the Undecided sample at this point largely is white Catholic voters, who, according to Zogby, are more likely to vote for Clinton or not to vote at all. Quinnipiac puts the spread at just over 2-1 for Clinton among all Catholics.

Here's the good news, part II:
The Undecided sample is undecided, still. This last group of mostly white Catholic voters, who Clinton ought to have in her hip pocket already, aren't yet convinced.

Here's the bad news part II:
The more recent the polling period, the larger the gap, almost across the board for Zogby (Sunday's one-day numbers, which, however, have a massive margin of error), Suffolk, SUSA, SV, and Quinnipiac. Friday-Sunday polls show less gap than Saturday-Sunday polls, which show less gap than than Zogby's one-day numbers for Sunday.

Here's the good news, part III:
The Suffolk Poll, which shows a 10-point Clinton Edge, polled ONLY 8% of its sample from the under-35 electorate. SUSA in its poll last week in PA captured 19% of its sample from the under 35s. (I can't locate the breakdown by age for their poll from this weekend, nor breakdowns from the other polls.) My guess is that more than 19% of the Tuesday's electorate will be under 35. If Obama matches the turnout of that group in PA's neighbors Ohio, NY, and Maryland, he'll make that group somewhere around 24-25% of the electorate. With land-line only calling, it's certainly possible that most polls are underepresenting Obama support.

Here's the bad news, part III:
Zogby, however, over the last two or three primaries, doesn't appear to be one of the pollsters under-representing Obama's support.

In the end, this will be about two main questions:
1. Will the undecideds indeed vote for Clinton 2-1, or not vote, or vote as if Clinton is the incumbent and break for Obama 2-1?
2. How many under-35s will vote?

PPP will put out a poll today sometime, which might or might not help sort this out.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Suffolk_PADemsMarginals_4_20_08.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1171

[Diamond Dog]

1. Don't expect Obama to win Pennsylvania.

It's her backyard. Nevertheless, expect Clinton supporters to call a single-digit win a 'major victory'. And expect yourself to be ready to challenge that particular piece of spin whenever it's brought up.

[0007]

4. .....cough cough. Where'd ya hang out before you discovered DU DD?

Welcome to DU

[TheDoorbellRang]

9. Obama campaign estimated way back on Super Tuesday they'd lose PA by 5 points

And their track record for accuracy has been better than the pollsters. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Welcome to DU. :hi:

[AtomicKitten]

2. All he has to do is keep her margins down, and the rest is gravy.

[Zachstar]

3. I have learned to ignore polls this close to the primary.

Polls are long term trend things. Yes they have called some contests but because PA is a firewall turned into play. We have NO idea of the recent people converting to Obama or people doubting Clinton or other factors.

No the only poll we need to worry about is the one at the end of the Primary.

Obama supporters in the state have been doing so much and have not given up so I have hope for a suprise Obama win or win in delegates.

[0007]

6. Barack win PA by 6%

[rocktivity]

13. GET THEE BEYOND ME, POLLS!

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!



x(
rocknation

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Thanks for this ! Chuck Todd thinks that Clinton doesn't want the

Undecideds to vote. He said that she went totally
negative, knowing full well that this would turn
off late deciders and new voters. Assuming
she would lose the new voters. But I wonder
if then she knew the late deciders were made up
of her demographic? Maybe she was willing to
sacrifice them?

[chimpymustgo]

10. Your boy Obama is Mr. Negative in PA - maybe HE's trying to keep undecideds from voting.

I'd say that's more likely the strategy, since undecideds tend to break for Hillary.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

11. I think she's gone negative because that's all she has--it certainly shows another

limit to that strategy, though. It turns off the late breakers who might otherwise have gone to her. And, of course, in the long run it kills her own numbers.

[Political Heretic]

7. O never was going to win PA. Though I wish for a miracle so this thing could be over.

[rocktivity]

8. Clinton's "magic number" is 65, Obama's is 45

That's the percentage of the vote each will need for a victory that actually matters. And not just in PA--in ALL the remaining contests.

:headbang:
rocknation

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. And each time the number is less than 65 the magic number goes up.

By the time Puerto Rico rolls around the magic number will not exist. There will be no margin, even 100%, that will put Clinton over the top in elected delegates.