*** Popular Vote Predictions ***

[Dawgs]

I did my own analysis (using a spreadsheet similar to Slate's delegate counter) to see what Hillary needs to do to win the popular vote.

Using an estimate of the total population, and the results from five states(OH, FL, IL, VA, CA), I determined the percentage of Democratic voters for each contest.

Percentage of Democratic voting in earlier contests
Ohio - 19%
Florida - 9%
Illinois - 15%
Virginia - 13%
California - 11%

Using the numbers from above, I could then determine the popular vote numbers for upcoming contests.

I matched previous turnout percentages with states that were similar. For instance, I used the Ohio turnout for the Pennsylvania calculation.

Here's my calculation--> For Hillary, Total population * Percentage Turnout(from earlier contest) * Estimated Percentage for Hillary

Using the same calculation for all states, I came up with the following results.

(Using current poll numbers and my own judgment)
Pennsylvania - H, 56% - O, 44% Hillary gains 283,326 in the popular vote.
North Carolina - H, 45% - O, 55% Obama gains 110,910 in the popular vote.
Oregon - H, 45% - O, 55% Obama gains 39,016 in the popular vote.
Indiana - H, 55% - O, 45% Hillary gains 96,551 in the popular vote.
West Virginia - H, 60% - O, 40% Hillary gains 69,024 in the popular vote.
Kentucky - H, 60% - O, 40% Hillary gains 128,491 in the popular vote.
Puerto Rico - H, 60% - O, 40% Hillary gains 97,744 in the popular vote.
Montana - H, 45% - O, 55% Obama gains 10,026 in the popular vote.
South Dakota - H, 45% - O, 55% Obama gains 14,739 in the popular vote.

This gives Hillary a net gain of 500,445 in the popular vote.

Using the RCP numbers, Obama is currently leading with 827,308 votes. This includes all of the current contests minus Florida and Michigan.

This means that Hillary will be behind 326,863 votes after the final contest.

Adding Florida, Hillary picks up an additional 294,772 votes, which means she will still be behind 32,091 in the popular vote.

I didn't include any of the Michigan numbers because Obama wasn't on the ballot, and... as Hillary said, the MI votes "won't count for anything".

Using these results, she will still be way behind in states and pledged delegates.

So, let me know what you think of my numbers. I feel like I was being pretty generous to Hillary (especially in Indiana).

BTW, I didn't include Guam because it's such a small contest.

[dbonds]

1. I don't think FL popular vote will ever be factored in.

So what is the PA percentage without it?

[Dawgs]

2. She would have to win by 24 points in PA to overtake Obama using this scenario (minus FL).

:)