Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Obama Supporters Should we Concern Ourselves with the BRADLEY EFFECT.

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
NYDem Observer Donating Member (313 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:21 AM
Original message
Obama Supporters Should we Concern Ourselves with the BRADLEY EFFECT.
While the polls in PA certainly look promising, with Obama making up a 20+ point deficit in a little over a month, I worry that the pre-polling numbers may not reflect the actual results tomorrow because of the Bradley effect. For those of you unfamiliar, I've provided information about the Bradley Effect below. Do you think this phenomenon will come into play?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there have been instances in which such elections have seen the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls. Researchers who have studied the issue theorize that some white voters gave inaccurate polling responses because of a fear that by stating their true preference, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced.

The theory suggests that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.

Some research has suggested that the race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into that concern. Meanwhile, some pollsters express doubt altogether that deliberately false answers from white voters being polled has been the cause of the polling errors in question. At least one prominent researcher has suggested that with regard to pre-election polls, the discrepancy can be traced in part by the polls' failure to account for general conservative political leanings among late-deciding voters.

Origin
The original term Bradley effect derives its name from a 1982 campaign involving Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California. Bradley, who was black, ran as the Democratic party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls leading into the day of the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead. In fact, based on exit polls on election day, a number of media outlets projected a Bradley win that night; early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "BRADLEY WIN PROJECTED". However, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and that voters who had been classified by those polls as "undecided" had gone to Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Zavulon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
1. Eek.
Assuming that Obama is nominated, he's running against a warmongering piece of shit. Even your most racist registered Democrat would be hard-pressed to vote for McStain.

If for some reason Obama loses, though, count on the Bradley Effect being mentioned as the reason.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
aaaaaa5a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
2. The Bradley effect is way overrated.....
Here is a thread I had a day ago which addressed the accuracy of polls and the Bradley effect

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5584503&mesg_id=5584503
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NYDem Observer Donating Member (313 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. I'd like to think so
But one of the things I'm learning is that the Bradley Effect doesn't come into play as much when its a woman versus a minority candidate but it still has some relevance as we saw with Ohio. Furthermore, it may explain why he did much better in the TX caucus where voting is public and open as opposed to the TX primary. It probably will have more relevance though when its John McCain in the general.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
4. Hahaha - like other facets of racism, white folks will never admit to the "white lie".
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BlueIdaho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
5. Sadly, eventually, yes. nt.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Sensitivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
6. Bradley Effect has been Obvious in several contests -- mainly in states w history of racial tension
The Clinton campaign has relentlessly employed code words and issues in these states to take advantage of the Bradley phenom
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu Apr 25th 2024, 03:17 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC