Hillary Country is Bush/McCain Country.....Why bother?

[Armstead]

Here's what I see as a fatal flaw in the Clinton campaign strategy and message.

She is trying to identify herself as the "candidate of the working class." God knows how she gets away with it. But in the primaries, she seems to have made enough people forget the corporate-friendly/anti-worker policies of and and her husband and bamboozle them into thinking she would actually fight the oligarchs who are behind her campaign.

Anyway, by using right-wing attacks to smear Obama as an "elite San Francisco liberal" she has apparently appealed to enough of the prejudices of the Reagan Democrats to get their vote in the Pennsylvania primary.

Congratulations Hillary.

But why bother? Come November, most of those who are basically right-leaning are going to go over to the Tough Guy McCain. The GOP will -- despite her protestations -- paint HER as the "elite San Francisco liberal" who is "soft on defense."

Meanwhile, by throwing liberals and idealists under the bus, and her tepid business-as-usual brand of DLC politics, will defuse the enthusiasm of the new voters. She will also lose the active support (if not the votes) of the enthusiastic Democratic Obama supporters who she has trashed for the last several months.

Therefore, IMO, Clinton will have unraveled a potentially winning coalition, and give McCain enough of an advantage to squeak into the White House.

[rug]

1. Who won Alabama and Mississippi?

[Armstead]

4. And your point is....?

[rug]

7. Why bother?

[Armstead]

8. I wouldn't necessarily expect Obama to win the hardcore South either

But the difference is that Obama has not been trashing the basic liberal principles of the Democratic Party.

Clinton is.

Her deliberate amplification of the Rovian meme that Obama is an elitist because he said something poorly at a private meeting in San Francisco is a feelble attempt to Out-Bush the GOP.

That, IMO, is a crucial difference.

[terrell9584]

15. The thing about Alabama is

It was a skewed primary because there were no local offices on the table. Hillary Clinton won in N. Alabama with margins of 75-85%. N. Alabama is entirely white, the only blacks in N. Alabama are in Madison County (which did go for Obama)

Obama pulled margins in the Black Belt that in every county, mirror the demographical makeup of the county. The Obama campaign had guys in this state last Spring. The only people who didn't see it coming were the entirety of the state's black political leadership.

The thing is, in Alabama, local offices in rural counties are still decided in the Democratic Primary, and in the biggest rural counties, in the Republican Party, and we don't register voters by party. You declare the day off. Many residents of North Alabama, an area that went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 (Clinton won the home county of Roy Moore), cast the first Republican Primary vote in their lives, and they all voted for Huckabee. All for Huckabee. Because Huckabee was running on economic populism and he had a message that sounded very similar to the Democrats that they keep re-electing to the Alabama legislature every four years.

It was the map Roy Moore wished he had. Roy Moore lost two years ago because all these rural voters voted as Democrats, and most of the rural voters voted for north Alabama Lucy Baxley over south Alabama Siegelman. Baxley's primary margin of victory came primarily out of N. Alabama. Many of the Baxley voters would have been Moore voters but for the fact they had to vote for Sheriff, state legislature, county school board, etc. By the same token, white Democrats in the states urban and suburban counties had to vote in the Republican Primary, because their local offices were on the table, and to vote for Siegelman in the primary would mean forfeiting their vote for Sheriff, county school board, etc.

If the Presidential primary had been subject to the demographics of typical statewide primaries, Clinton probably would have won it. She didn't win because voters she needed to vote for her had no local offices on the table and therefore felt free to vote a GOP ballot for the first time in their lives, and most of them preferred Huckabee. By the same token, many voters in urban areas that voted in the GOP primary in 2006 to vote for Sheriff cast Democratic ballots this year. These were white voters and they voted for Clinton, but it was not enough to compensate for the overwhelming advantage Obama had with the black vote. In a traditional Alabama primary, Obama would have won with 80% margins or better in the state's two most populous counties, but he would have ended up losing the state because of Democratic primary votes in N. Alabama.

As for Mississippi. In Mississippi, rural counties are all controlled by the Democratic Party, and that's what you saw reflected, because MS does still have closed primaries and therefore, if you even register as a Republican you have just forfeited your right to vote for county offices. Clinton's votes came from the heavily white counties, but most counties in Mississippi have black populations that are sizeable enough to account for both his margins and the way the county maps broke down.

Southern primary results do decide elections, but you have to understand that the South doesn't really have a true two party system, we have competing one party systems, voters realize that, and they vote accordingly. This is why Hillary got all that support in normally Republican counties in Texas. It was not "Republicans trying to sabotage elections", but it was the fact that these counties, many of them W supporting are still controlled at the local level by the Democratic Party and voting a Republican ballot would be the same as throwing a vote away. You can't have a one-party system like the South had pretty much since the era of Andrew Jackson (so, 150 years) suddenly introduce two-party politics over a 15 year period and immediately expect the region to become a two party mirror of the nation, doesnt work like that

[ElsewheresDaughter]

2. Obama is the Rethuglican channeler...Obama courts & wins red states

it only is good when Obama jesus does it eh?

[Armstead]

3. There's a difference between reconciling and using right-wing thuggery

Obama wants to win over disaffected Republicans, for whom the GOP has become too extremist and too incompetent. He is pushing a moderate message, while adhering to basic liberal priinciples.

That's a fine strategy.

Clinton is echoing the right-wing attacks on "elite liberals" and pretending to be Ms. Hawk.

Rather thah trying to enlarge the Democratic coalition, she is pandering to the right, in a useless effort to appeal to the prejudices that have driven the GOP.

That's a dumb strategy.

[Diamond Dog]

5. Obama has the right strategy.

I live about ten minutes outside of Missouri. If Obama's the nominee, it'll go blue this year. I hear that Kansas is pretty close to it also.

[BigDDem]

6. "elite San Francisco liberal"

Please provide link for this quote from Hillary, thanks!

[Armstead]

9. Unless you were on a desert island for the past two weeks you know exactly what I am talking about

If you were on a desert island, just Google the news sites for a replay of her speeches bashing Obama as an elitist.

[BigDDem]

10. You are the king of making shit up

and you can quote me on that.

Just for fun, I did Google it and congratulations are in order,
yours is the only one that came up!

:rofl:

[Armstead]

11. I'm honored if I made Google....Okay try anotehr Google search

Clinton, Obama, Elitist, San Francisco

If you add the word "liberal" you still get a lot of hits....And I didn't see anything from me in the results.


Maybe you Googled Armstead, liberal elitist, Clinton, Obama instead perhaps? :)

[BigDDem]

12. Let me walk you through this......

cut the following: "elite San Francisco liberal"
Go to Google.com, paste your quote into the search box and click "Search"

Or would you prefer to admit that you made up that quote?

[Armstead]

13. If you care to parse words, I should have removed the quotation marks, but....

If you don't understand the meaning and code behind her repeated references to "a meeting in San Francisco" and "elite" and "looking down on the voters" etc. then you haven't been paying attention all these years. These are all rw code for "liberal" and you damn well know it.

A better question for you is: Do you really believe that amplifying and distorting a statement that most Democrats (including her?) basically agree with, because of Obama's poor choice of words is not amplifying the message that the GOP will use against all Democrats in November?

Why the hell didn't she just shut up, let Obama deal with his own mess and focus on her own strengths? Why did she choose to help Rive paint Democrats as elitists, which is a charge she is going to be hit with herself in November?

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. It's a matter of poor punctuation, not made up quotes.

OP should have set it off as 'elite San Francisco liberal' rather the "elite San Francisco liberal", indicating it was not an exact quote but somebody else's description.

And you know full well about the so-called elite fundraiser where Obama spoke about the working class PA voters.

I think you're just being bitchy because you know your candidate is going to lose those working class PA voters to Obama.

[Armstead]

16. Thanks

I should not have used full quotes, but I figured people know enough about politics to know what "elite" and "a meeting in San Francisco" (deliberate quoted there) are right-wing code words for.

I guess I pulled a little Obama misspeak myself there. :)

[BigDDem]

29. Make excuses much?

You made up a quote.
"Words matter."

[Cali_Democrat]

17. She is also giving ammunition for McCain to use in the fall

I can see it now...

"Even Hillary Clinton thinks Barack Obama is an out of touch liberal elitist." - John McCain

:puke:

Good job, Hillary.

[Armstead]

25. McCain can save money by recycling her ads

[AX10]

18. Well then, we millions of Hillary supporters should...

NOT vote for Obama come the fall by your logic, including myself. I voted for Gore and Kerry. I voted for Ned Lamont and Bill Curry. I voted for mostly Democrats on the local level. Remember that.

[Armstead]

19. I didn;t say all Obama supporters wouldn't vote for Hillary

But she is poking her thumb in the eyes of many voters who have been drawn into the process by Obama.

And, the Democratic base who support Obama will likely hold-their-nose-and-vote for Hillary, even though they sure aren't going to be enthusiastic supporters.

Obama is expanding the party. IMO, Clinton is squeezing it down to the base, while trying to appeal to voters who are most likely going to McCain anyway in the fall.

[PBS Poll-435]

20. Like California, NY, Mass, -- ?

[stillcool]

22. You mean all the blue states..

that consistently vote Democratic? Are you suggesting that these Democratic states will not go for Obama? Even though Obama does better in the national polls against John McCain then Hillary does?

[PBS Poll-435]

23. I just reponded to the title.....

Hillary Country is McCain/Bush Country...

[stillcool]

24. New York, Massachusetts, and California..

are blue states..didn't you know? Any Democrat can win those states.

[PBS Poll-435]

27. So what in the hell does that have to do with saying ...

HRC Country = Bush/McCain Country.

It makes no sense....especially since Barack Obama Country = Bush/McCain Countyr as well.

[Armstead]

26. Hillary's target demographic. if you prefer

[PBS Poll-435]

28. Hillary's target demographic is WOMEN

The largest subgroup of the Democratic Party.

[anonymous171]

21. PA is a blue state. Clinton's "base" is irrelevant in the GE

Democrats have only won like 30% of the white male vote since Carter.