Clinton/Obama /The Popular Vote Race.......

[aaaaaa5a]

Popular Vote Count

State/ Obama/ Clinton/

Popular Vote Total 13,355,209 49.5% 12,638,123 46.9% Obama +717,086 +2.6%


Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 13,689,293 49.6% 12,861,985 46.6% Obama +827,308 +3.0%

Popular Vote (w/FL) 13,931,423 48.5% 13,509,109 47.1% Obama +422,314 +1.4%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 14,265,507 48.6% 13,732,971 46.8% Obama +532,536 +1.8%

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)** 13,931,423 47.6% 13,837,418 47.2% Obama +94,005 +0.4%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 14,265,507 47.6% 14,061,280 47.0% Obama +204,227 +0.6%


Pennsylvania has 4.2 million registered democrats. (4,190,064 by my count)
These numbers are based on a 55% voter turnout in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary. (That is a massive turnout)


Here is how the percentage margin of victory correlates to the popular vote margin of victory.


1%..... 23,045
2%..... 46,090
3%..... 69,135
4%..... 92,180
5%..... 115,225
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6%.... 138,270
7%.... 161,315
8%.... 184,360
9%.... 207,405
10%....230,450
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11%.... 253,495
12%.... 276,540
13%.... 299,585
14%.....322,630
15%.... 345,675
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16%..... 368,720
17%..... 391,760
18%..... 414,810
19%..... 437,855
20%..... 460,900
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Quick Points…..

1) Even when assuming a massive voter turnout on Tuesday, if the Polls are reasonably accurate (within 3 points) Hillary Clinton would net only about 230,000 votes.

2) This would mean AFTER THE PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY Obama would still hold a popular vote lead of roughly 500,000 votes.

3) How big is this lead? EVEN IF the popular vote totals from Florida were added to the total, Obama would still lead in popular vote totals by more than 190,000 votes.

4) The totals for Obama used in the “quick points” do not included the estimates from Iowa, Nevada, Maine or Washington. When those totals are added, Obama actually leads by more than 800,000 votes heading into Tuesday’s primary.

This means that if Hillary doesn’t win by at least 9 percentage points, you could add Michigan (Obama not on the ballot) and Florida (no campaign) and AMAZINGLY, Obama would STILL LEAD in Popular vote totals by roughly 20,000 votes.


5) If Obama’s poll numbers hold in North Carolina, nearly all of Hillary’s advantage will be eliminated on May 6th.


6) This is not an endorsement that the popular vote should take precedent over pledged delegates. There are huge problems with using the popular vote as a barometer in this race. But the Media has been hyping this up, so I thought I would post the popular vote number totals.

The popular vote numbers are from Realclearpolitics.

[still_one]

1. If Clinton wins tomorrow by 20 points or more, she is still in the race /nt

[cosmicsheep]

2. While fascinating...

...no matter what HRC wants to think, in the primaries it is delegates that decide, not the popular vote.

I am bringing this up because the only reason a post like the OP needs to be made in the first place is that the HRC camp keep trying to spin the notion that somehow, in this primary, the popular vote should be taken into account.

That is not the case, no matter how much they try to spin it.

[AtomicKitten]

3. If she wins by 12%, she only earns about 200,000 more votes.

Not enough in this last chance big state to advance her cause.

All Obama has to do is keep her margins down.