Tomorrow is NOT going to change anything, whether HRC wins by 15 or 5. The supers

[blm]

are NOT willing to take it to the convention and the majority of them have been leaning towards Obama. Clintons KNOW this. They have known it for over two months because a major news organization has been sitting on the story of their survey of super delegates all this time, just in case Obama imploded - which he hasn't.

[cali]

1. sure it will change things if she wins by 15

The uncommitted SDs will continue holding back on endorsing Obama. If she wins by only 5, they'll start endorsing Obama in greater numbers. If the former happens, she could win Indiana and perhaps make it close in NC. She'll win blowouts in WV and KY. Not saying it will, but such a scenario could sway SDs and they could go for her instead of Obama.

[blm]

3. Obama is up by 20 in NC - and the survey I refer to shows most SDs in Obama's camp.

Tomorrow changes nothing. Once it is over, the SDs will only feel freer to commit to Obama before NC, which he WILL win by a substantial margin.

[northzax]

8. why will they feel more free tomorrow?

because he'll have lost to a candidate he outspent by 4 times?

[blm]

9. Because many promised to hold off till after Pennsylvania.

And because when they MADE that promise, Hillary was up by over 20% in Penn.

The survey of the uncommitted supers was conducted by the newsgroup right after Super Tuesday. They printed a partial story but held off with the details re their survey of supers and their leanings.

[blm]

24. Nailed this one - Obama will be announcing more superdelegates soon....

.

[Hugabear]

10. North Carolina doesn't count

Haven't you learned anything yet? Pro-Obama states don't count. PA is the only state that matters. Unless, of course, Hillary doesn't do as well as expected. Then the goalposts get pushed back to whatever the next state she has a chance of winning.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

14. that's right. NC is Territory, not even a state.

[blm]

22. Yeah - but, it's PURPLE territory, and imo, quite blue when votes can be counted.

;)

[roguevalley]

27. no one projects that high and she needs 25+% to even make a dent

[cliffordu]

2. If she has a remarkable day It will prolong the agony.

The MSM will call a one point win for her a major turning point. Mark my words.

They HAVE To keep the suspense up. They got nothing to do until November if she drops tomorrow, then it's back to the usual dog and pony show that is MSM.

Car chases, Lurid crime/sex/murder stories, animal abuse features, all the stuff Edward R. Murrow specialized in.

[Zachstar]

4. It is all about the warchest.

Clinton DESPERATELY needs new donors and if she wins by Over 5 she will spend most of her victory speech trying to urge supporters to donate.

If it is under 10 many will still worry about donating into a black hole. If it is over 10 less will be worried and Clinton may add a few million to her warchest before May.

[AtomicKitten]

5. This has been over for several weeks now.

I'm not entirely certain what the Clintons hoped to accomplish, I only know they have irreparably damaged their reputations within the party for their protracted ugly campaigning.

[mtnsnake]

6. The only thing it will change is how soon Barack concedes the nomination to Hillary

If she wins by only 3 to 6 points, he'll probably stay in it another few weeks before eventually throwing in the towel.

If she wins by more than 6 points, he'll probably drop out by Friday.

Oh well, he gave it a good shot, regardless.

[SeaLyons]

25. ...

:toast: :bounce: :party: :thumbsup: :hi:

[dionysus]

28. hey...

Hey there, hillary
Swingin' down the trail so fancy-free
Nobody you meet could ever see
The president there inside you

Hey there, hillary
Why do all the voters just pass you by?
Could it be the nasty lies
Or is it because of Penn?

Hey there, mtnsnake
There's another candidate you should try
Bring out all the Hope you hide and,
Oh, what a change there'd be
cause it won't be hillaryyyy, hey mtnsnake....

[northzax]

7. you're right about one thing

the Supers would rather not go to a convention, many of them (although many of them would be well served by a floor fight) but if it's a 15 point win tomorrow, Obama is in serious trouble. sorry, but if you get blown out in a swing state with 5 weeks lead time, against a candidate with high negatives who is flat broke and has no real ground game, you have to start to question things. by last reports, Obama has 60-70 million dollars MORE than she does, he could have spent every day in Pennsylvania, gone all out to win, but once again, he didn't.

if he doesn't just lose, but gets blown out, in such a key state, it's not a good thing at all.

[BlueIdaho]

11. If

Her margin of victory isn't astonishing the SDs will add to that her campaign's financial troubles and start breaking quickly to Obama. Everyone knows this primary season has outlived its usefulness. Even Clinton backers are done talking about "the will of the people" now its strictly about SDs.

[Melinda]

12. So how long before the "undecided" SD's declare?

Do you think they'll continue to trickle, or....?

If she takes PA by less than 10, I think they'll come out in large numbers... less than 20 and it's status quo. Somewhere in between...?

:shrug:

[blm]

13. Right before and right after NC. Braver ones will do it before NC, the others after Obama carries

NC by a wide margin.

It's human nature, really. They do it when they feel most protected from fallout.

[Melinda]

18. Thanks for my new mantra... two more weeks!

I don't think I've told you this is a very long time, but your breadth and depth of political *stuff* blows me away... many thanks for all you do on DU. :yourock:

[blm]

20. Thanks. My spouse works in a newsroom and can hear stories BEFORE they are edited

It helps to know what our corporate media DOESN'T want the public to know.

[bobthedrummer]

15. It's been over for her for quite awhile. All those decades of "plans" have been exposed, and

rejected-yet the extreme desperation of Team Clinton in denying the simple fact that Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee and President of The United States of America continues in the damage being done to the Democratic Party by RW moles associated with Team Clinton.

"Inconvenient truths about the New Democrats, the Third Way, Democratic Leadership Council, etc."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2973191

[Thepricebreaker]

16. Hillary can still go to the convention and contest it. Even if Obama has enough votes.

[blm]

17. and WATCH more of her super delegates turn on her publicly? I don't think so.

.

[NightWatcher]

19. 81-5 Obama's supers vs Hillary's in the past 60 days????

the flood is coming. it has been in the wings since super Tuesday, but now it's coming

[Orsino]

21. I don't see the supers in a hurry to follow Dean's orders and pledge.

They're waiting for decisive victory, which may not occur before the convention.

[KoKo]

23. I read today she's going to take it to Puerto Rico...where Obama is not favored and

even though PR doesn't get to vote in November...if she wins big there amongst the Latino's which Politico says don't vote for Obama...she will take that big vote for her to the Convention and claim with other states like Florida...that she has WON the Popular Vote.

Be prepared for a "bumpy ride" unless she loses PA so badly she looks ridiculous.

Just saying...... And, I'm neither an Obama nor Hillary supporter. At this point I'm just watching it all in horror.

[dionysus]

29. OH NOES!!11! we forgot about the puerto rican juggernaut, LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

:eyes:

[OnlyObama]

26. I hope you are right!

[blm]

30. heh...I am. A lot of Obama supers held back till after Pa, and today marks the day their promise

expires.