Final Survey USA PA Poll: Clinton: 50, Obama: 44

[NJSecularist]

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/04/21/pa-end-game-clinton-50-obama-44/

With 18 hours to go before Pennsylvanians start casting their votes, Hillary Clinton is six points ahead of Barack Obama in this, SurveyUSA’s fifth and final tracking poll conducted exclusively for our PA media clients KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, WHP-TV in Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Full results and analysis are here; some selected highlights on what has — and has not — changed follow:

* In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and most of the state’s African American population, the candidates had seesawed in four previous polls, but Obama finishes strongly, ahead by 14 points.
* Among men, Clinton had led narrowly in 3 of the 4 previous tracking polls, but finishes down 15.

* Among liberals, Obama began 18 points behind Clinton but finishes 11 points ahead of Clinton.
* Among those who have not graduated from college, Clinton led by 28 points last week, but by 15 points today.
* Among voters under age 50, Clinton had led by 8 last week, trails by 8 today.

Here’s what has not changed:

* Among women, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 30, 28, 28, 22, and 23 points.
* Among voters aged 50+, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 26, 22, 24, 20, and 20 points

[PVnRT]

1. Not a good sign for her

She needs not just to win Pennsylvania, but by a landslide, else it will be considered basically a loss.

[NJSecularist]

3. I have been waiting a while for this poll. SurveyUSA's track record has been impeccable.

If this is true, it's good news for Obama. As long as he doesn't lose Pennsylvania by 10 points, he'll be fine.

[MadBadger]

4. SUSA shows huge Momentum for Obama.

[NJSecularist]

6. I'm not so sure.

Survey USA had him down by 12 in their last poll. They are just adjusting to what the rest of the pollsters are saying.

[MadBadger]

8. I thought they had him down 54-40 in the last poll?

[AX10]

9. That could be it.

[MadBadger]

2. Looking at today's Gallup poll and this one, I wonder if undecideds are breaking his way this time.

[RiverStone]

5. Every talking head in the corporate media has said...

If Obama loses by single digits it is a moral victory for his campaign considering Hillary was ahead by 22 points 2 months ago.

And an Obama win in PA even by a tiny margin ends her campaign in its tracks.

[Avalux]

7. Philly and Southwestern PA will get this done for Obama. I predict:

Too close to call for awhile; Obama squeaks out a win. It's also very difficult to gauge how voter turnout and those 400k newly registered Dems will affect the numbers. Obama has the advantage with both.

He can count on my mom and dad; former Republicans, registered Dem for the first time, voting for Obama. :patriot:

[JackORoses]

10. These SUSA polls are snapshots of the Obama Train closing in Hillary's Rearview

+18...+14....+6...WoooWooo! That Train is coming on fast.

[Arkana]

11. That's not bad.

Considering she was up by five times that on March 4 I'd say we're in a good spot.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. That's amazing.

I question it, though. How can Obama go from being down by 20 last week to 6? It just seems unlikely he had that type of surge, so one of these SurveyUSA polls is wrong.

[DerekJ]

13. Good to hear.

[TahitiNut]

14. Even a "win" (+18 delegates) is not enough for Hillary to turnaround her campaign.

She'd need a 30-delegate win in PA to give ANY rational person reason to believe she can take the lead before the convention.

[beachmom]

15. Who are the undecideds? Hillary will probably win 56 - 44, if they all break for her,

which I have heard is likely.

Hillary by 12 in PA is my prediction.

[NJSecularist]

16. Not all the undecideds will break towards her.

In Ohio and Texas, 66% of the undecided broke towards her. If we apply that same math to this prediction, Hillary wins 54-46.

An 8 point win is what I expect for Hillary.

[woolldog]

17. Also, keep in mind

undecideds might just choose to stay home. They may be undecided so late because they don't like any of the candidates.

[woolldog]

18. Also, keep in mind

undecideds might just choose to stay home. They may be undecided so late because they don't like any of the candidates.

[adoraz]

19. YES!! Great news for OBAMA!

keeping it close.

[PM7nj]

20. That makes me feel much better.

As some people know, I was freaking out about the SUSA polls earlier. I feel better now.

[ORDem]

21. KnR

:kick:

[Frank Booth]

22. Six points would be a great result for him. Let's hope SUSA is accurate again.

[PseudoIntellect]

23. 50-44? Suppose Hillary wins 4-2 in the undecided and wins 54-46.

That would be a good performance from both candidates (well, being ahead 16 and winning by 8 isn't good, but it's still a strong lead), and yet Hillary would end up with small delegate gains compared to the ones she needs.

[Colobo]

24. Gobama!

[davidpdx]

25. That's still fairly close

I've said I think Clinton will win it by 5-8%. RCP has the average 49% to 43.1% Clinton over Obama which would leave about 8% undecided or voting other. I would add 5% to Clinton and guess it's going to be 54-46% for Clinton which would leave it still on the upper end of the range I predicted. It will be interesting to see the delegate count, which will depend on the percentages at the district level. Even with a 8 point win it could be 10 delegates or less win for Clinton.