Good analysis of Penn Polls

[gabeana]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/21/121146/932/310/500056


"I'm focusing on the five polls for which some level of crosstabs are available (I have the Rasmussen subscription to see their crosstabs):

PPP Obama 49, Clinton 46
Mason-Dixon Clinton 48, Obama 43
Rasmussen Clinton 49, Obama 44
Quinnipiac Clinton 51, Obama 44
Suffolk Clinton 52, Obama 42


"My gutcheck prediction

If Philly/SE comes in at about a 12 point Obama lead (far below PPP, in between M&D, SUSA and Suffolk, and the rest of the state (including Pittsburgh) comes in at about a 15 point Clinton lead (pretty close to what everyone other than Suffolk says), all of which I believe:"

"Clinton 51, Obama 49"

At the time they had not recieved Survey's USA crosstabs

[mkultra]

1. you can eliminate the PPP and Quinnipiac

Although the PP uses a huge sample, its numbers are out of variance.
The Quinnipiac poll has allways favored clinton(read bias) and has always been way off.

With those two out, your prediction still looks good though.

[gabeana]

2. Just want to be clear the analysis is from Daily Kos

[GDAEx2]

3. Clinton will NOT carry Pittsburgh by 15%

The rest of the country may not know it, but there are alot of colleges and universities in the Pittsburgh area.
There is also a lot of high tech industry. Both of which should help Obama. Also, it is my sense that the labor union base, which helped Clinton carry Ohio, has been slowly eroded over the last 6 weeks. SEIU has been very active in promoting Obama.
I will be surprised if she carries Allegheny County (PIttsburgh) by more than 5%.
Just an opinion from a Pittsburgher who rides the bus everyday.

[bobthedrummer]

4. I thought you meant Mark Penn, at first, he's still doing POLLS for Team Clinton

as well as "advising"-so let's just ignore polls

"Know Your DLC: Mark Penn"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5515506