The PA polls: Analyzing regional demographic differences

[featherman]

Rather complete analysis showing how different polls give different weight (voter participation) to various areas of the state... and thus conflicting results. Worth reading in full but here's a snip:

"Obviously, the Suffolk poll is the most favorable to Clinton out of this group. There is one big thing that stands out in this poll:

Pittsburgh/Southwest PA: 38% of all polled for Dem primary
Philadelphia/Southeast PA: 38% of all polled for Dem primary
Rest of state (the "T" area): 24% of all polled for Dem primary

Suffolk is the only polling firm approximating that SW PA (including the Allegheny area) is an equal voting bloc to Philly & SE PA. Other firms have the numbers at:

45% Philly/SE, 27% Pittsburgh/SW (Mason-Dixon)
45% Philly/SE, 26% Pittsburgh/SW (PPP)
46% Philly/SE, 23% Pittsburgh/SW (SurveyUSA April 15)

"Obviously, with Philly/SE being Obama's strongest area, these regional demographics are a big deal. Suffolk has him up 57-40 in the SE region (higher than any other polling firm other than PPP- we'll get there next), but a huge disadvantage in Pittsburgh/SW (63-29 Clinton- also higher than any other pollster) means a large disadvantage in the state."


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/21/121146/932/310/500056

[book_worm]

1. I read this earlier on KOS; a very good analysis of these different polls.