How to Predict a Modern Dem VP Pick

[RaulGroom]

Step 1: Wait until the end of June.
Step 2: Throw out everybody who's been mentioned by more than one person as a possible pick.
Step 3: Find the one guy who makes sense who's still left.

And the winner is....

Virginia Governor Mark Warner.

He's term-limited, outgoing in a year, he's done a great job working with a ridiculously hostile legislature, and he's from Virginia, which is inexplicably in play with its 13 electoral votes. There is almost no scenario in which the Republicans can win the White House without Virginia.

Of course, Warner is the darkest of horses, but if I could get 100-1 on him, I'd bet ten bucks. Anybody booking?

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. Max Cleland is another n/t

[apnu]

3. I'd love to see max...

... but I'm afraid that this nation still "won't elect someone in a wheel chair." I'd vote for him. But then I'd vote for a Kerry/Red Brick ticket.

However, I love the idea of him as a VP choice. It would force us to look at how we treat disabled and veterans in this country. Which is to say, like crap.

[JI7]

4. FDR was in a wheelchair

[apnu]

5. and he wasn't on TV.

It's a famous story and a famous quote. FDR succeeded on the power of his oration alone. His radio addresses were key for his huge run in the White House.

[JI7]

2. mark warner has been mentioned on here a few times

but there is no evidence of him being very seriously vetted. of course maybe we just don't know about it. but i would NOT be surprised if it was mark warner. he was one of my top choices for vp and still is.

[Democracy Died 2004]

6. I have always said

that it could be Mark Warner.. Bring Virginia and surely pick up a few other southern states. The guy raised taxes <long story but it needed to be done> over a republican congress. Very nice and intelligent, and has a "real" persona like Edwards. It sure would be my choice and throw the wingnuts for a loop.

[troublemaker]

7. Warner has been discussed too much. Your formula leads to Joe Biden

[Zynx]

10. I've heard him discussed precisely twice on TV.

[WI_DEM]

8. Howard Dean might be a dark horse selection

If Kerry wants to run strongly on Iraq.

[MallRat]

9. Current VP odds at intrade.com:

Edwards: 5-to-7
Gephardt: 6-to-1
Richardson: 16-to-1
H. Clinton: 33-to-1
Clark: 50-to-1
Gore: 50-to-1
Bayh: 50-to-1
B. Graham: 50-to-1
Rockefeller: 500-to-1
B. Nelson: 500-to-1
Breaux: 500-to-1
Biden: 1000-to-1
Feinstein: 1000-to-1
Dean: 1000-to-1

The Field (which includes Warner): 13-to-2
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

-MR