When Obama loses tomorrow in Pennsylvania....

[mudesi]

When Obama loses tomorrow in Pennsylvania, the mathematical expression "2 + 2 = 4" will still be a tautology.

She has to win by 20 points in Pennsylvania, and in Guam, and in Indiana, and in North Carolina, and in West Virginia, and in Kentucky, and in Oregon, and in Puerto Rico, and in Montana, and in South Dakota, if she wants to tie Obama in pledged delegates.

The arrogance of Clinton loyalists is astounding. She is not entitled to a nomination she has already lost. Get over it and get behind the Democratic nominee like the rest of us have.

If the delegate count really doesn't matter, then I fully expect Dennis Kucinich to win the nomination. He's the only liberal, so what's the problem with giving it to him?

[PBS Poll-435]

1. Is Penssylvania Like Pen Island?

:rofl:

[TheCowsCameHome]

2. Penssylvania, yes, but Pennsylvania may be a different story

[MercutioATC]

3. Ummm...I think it's 28 points, not 20...

...otherwise, I completely agree.

[mudesi]

29. I wanted to be generous (nm)

[cali]

4. Sorry- and I say this as a strong Obama supporter, but if she beats

him by 10+ points tomorrow and goes on to win in Indiana and KY and WV and makes it close in NC, and ties or exceeds his popular vote count, she has an excellent case to make to the SDs.

[IndependentDem]

7. i agree with you. n/t

[Lone_Star_Dem]

9. Which is exactly what the Clinton camp is hoping for at this moment

I wonder if she'll have the time to get it close in NC though? I expect she'll be pretty wrapped up working on the ground in Indiana and she doesn't have the available funds to do an extensive television campaign there. It's going to be difficult, and more than a little dangerous for her to divide her time between the two states.

[AlinPA]

63. She's out to destroy him or to diminish him for the GE.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

17. How close is close in NC?

[cali]

31. within 7 or 8 pts.

[calmblueocean]

39. If the SDs take the nom away from the one with the most pledged delegates, enjoy 4 years of McCain.

If Hillary wants to be the nominee, she has to get it through merit. It's possible some Obama scandal could come out, and Hil could sweep the remaining primaries, so I don't begrudge her staying in the race. But she can't win by begging the SDs to give her the nom. If Obama has the most pledged delegates, the most states, and the popular vote, but the Hillary somehow gets the nomination, the race is over before it's begun.

One side is going to have to begrudgingly support the other side after the convention, and that can't happen if there's a perception of unfairness. She has to win fair and square.

[cali]

43. I disagree. If obama clearly collapses

and yet hillary is still slightly behind, the SDs will be right in endorsing her. That said, I think that's very unlikely to happen.

[calmblueocean]

48. It depends on how you define "collapse".

Losing a few more primaries does not constitute a collapse, but I won't be surprised when Hillary and her supporters try to spin things that way.

For Obama supporters to acknowledge that the SDs were right to choose Hillary, even though she has fewer delegates, Obama would have to be caught shooting up in an alleyway, or something just as incontrovertible. Nothing we've seen so far would do. It would have to be a Lewinski-level explosion for Obama supporters to turn their backs on him, and give Hillary the nod.

[Yukari Yakumo]

52. So his streak of 11 states a couple of months ago doesn't matter? {nt}

uguu

[Indigo Walrus]

59. yeah.

That'll happen.

[roguevalley]

61. what? That her negatives that she brings from twenty years of

turmoil and bill trump the negatives that she has spent a year and a half giving him? Any SD who overturns the will of the people needs tarred and feathered. Do you really think that giving her the win through the SD's is going to ensure ANYONE turns up in the GE? I won't come and neither will
anyone I know. That would be the usual bullshit and there would be riots.

[kmsarvis]

71. The popular vote argument is bogus!!!!

The vote totals in caucus states would have to be weighted to get an accurate assesment of the "will of the people". The turnout per population has averaged about 2.4% in caucus states compared to 13.2% in primary states. The difference in voter turnout has nothing to do with a lack of enthusiasm in caucus states.The turnout would have been much lower in any state that held primaries if they had held caucuses instead. If the caucus states vote totals are weighted proportionaly Obamas lead in the popular will be much larger.

[SwampG8r]

75. ouchie i have to disagree cali

as much as i enjoy your posts and look forward to them i have to disagree here
we have caucus states involved so the popular vote cannot be used as a standard
there is no way to read a popular vote from caucus state data

of course thats just my opinion and i could be wrong
:think:

[kmsarvis]

78. YOU ARE CORRECT !!!!!!

Although it probably doesn't matter because I think Obama will win the popular vote anyway.

[tritsofme]

5. Hillary has been mathematically precluded from winning the pledged delegate count for weeks.

This is old news.

A nominal lead in pledged delegates does not mean you are automatically awarded the nomination.

In a race as close as this, other variables such as popular vote must be utilized.

When Obama ends the primaries with a nominal pledged delegate lead, and if Hillary leads as the choice of the People, it will be up to the SDs to choose.

[melody]

10. Hillary is hated by the majority of the Democratic Party ... how is she the "choice" of the people?

You mean Republicans?

[tritsofme]

12. If she wins the popular vote,

which is very possible.

You may find yourself modifying your argument.

[melody]

16. Not in the least

If we had to re-do California right now, she'd lose by a landslide.

She's resting on numbers she gained before she became a cutthroat lunatic.

[tritsofme]

21. I certainly haven't seen any evidence suggesting such a phenomenon.

And if voters in many of the small states Obama won heard his recent comments before voting, outcomes may have changed as well.

If she wins the popular vote, she is the choice of the People. Whether or not SDs ratify that or not has yet to be seen.

[melody]

30. Come to California -- she is despised here.

Obama would win California and a couple of other "big" states now ... go take a look at the polling numbers.

We can make whatever logical permutations we like to try to appease our emotional selves, but the numbers don't
lie. She is not the choice of the people, let alone the People. If she wins at all, it will only be by her
bullying the SDs.

[tritsofme]

33. I guess I'll have to take your word for it then.

But if the primaries end with Obama as the nominal choice of pledged delegates chosen from 50+ different arcane delegate selection processes, and Hillary leads where you can sit down and count voter's heads, I don't think the SDs will have much of a choice to make.

Having a nominal lead in pledged delegates is not a mandate to the nomination, other factors will be considered.

[melody]

35. Ah, the two talking points today -- "people's choice" and "nominal"

You guys are ready with them early today. The fax machines must be singing.

I wonder if you folk know how transparent this all is -- I click five links and find three Hillary supporters talking about "people's choice" and "nominal lead". It's so obvious, it's funny.

[tritsofme]

36. Well perhaps people are copying me?

I've been using the same basic arguments and those particular phrases for weeks.

Should I be flattered?

[rinsd]

47. Yes in a truly wily fashion Hillary supporters conned Obama supporters to post math threads.

Just so we could respond to them with those unheard of points of popular vote total & small leads in pledged delegates!

:eyes:

[melody]

49. You guys are all over everywhere ... you and your pictures of Her Nauseating Eminence

I once deeply admired that woman. Last month, I didn't think it was possible I could hate her more than I did then. It turns out I could.

How anyone could still back that despicable individual is beyond me.

Edwards is out, Obama is the only one left ... and Hillary is now unthinkable.

[Warren DeMontague]

37. That's my experience, too.

She's severely alienated the vast majority of CA Democrats, as near as I can tell.

[knight_of_the_star]

56. Depends on which part of the state you're in

I know that she lost in NorCal but that she won the state seems to suggest her support in the more populous south is relatively firm.

[melody]

58. I live in LA County -- I talk to a LOT of Democrats who network with even more

The anti-Hillary attitude is profound.

[rinsd]

66. Hillary blew Obama out in LA County.

He won the 33rd, 35th & 37th districts but lost all the others that encompass LA County.

[melody]

67. Apparently you didn't read back in the thread -- she would lose resoundingly now

And I do mean resoundingly.

If California revoted, she'd be toast.

[rinsd]

70. I heard the "no one I know will vote for Clinton" crap before the voting started.,

It was a favorite meme at DU.

Guess what? Millions did vote for her.

A PPI poll a month ago had her favorability at 74%.

So pardon me if I dismiss your observations of your social circle.

[melody]

74. Check the numbers who would vote for her -- and check her favorability now

The Clintons were beloved figures in California. They have destroyed all of that loyalty just as they apparently trample over
all their friends once they're finished with them.

[rinsd]

77. You keep making the assumptions, you find the polls.

I found the PPI poll. They had her at 74% favorability.

Here's a blurb

California’s likely voters see the Democratic Party as more capable than the Republican Party on four key national issues. They give Democrats a 32-point advantage in handling health care (59% Democratic Party to 27% Republican Party), a 13-point advantage in handling the economy (50% to 37%), a 10-point edge in handling the situation in Iraq (48% to 38%), and a 5-point edge in handling immigration (42% to 37%).

So how do California voters feel about their potential choices in November? Six in 10 likely voters (61%) say they have a favorable opinion of Democratic Senator Barack Obama. Just under half have a favorable view of Republican Senator John McCain (49%) and Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton (45%). Most Democrats have a positive impression of Obama (78%) and Clinton (74%), and most Republicans have a favorable opinion of McCain (75%). Who wins the popularity contest among independent voters? More independents have a favorable view of Obama (57%) than of McCain (47%) or Clinton (35%).

If the election were held today, California’s likely voters would favor Obama over McCain by 9 points (49% to 40%). However, Obama and McCain split the independent vote (44% Obama, 42% McCain). Between Clinton and McCain, the race is a toss up: 46 percent of likely voters in the state support Clinton and 43 percent support McCain. Among independent voters, McCain has an 8-point edge over Clinton (44% to 36%). Nearly all likely voters (92%) say they are following news about the presidential election. "

http://www.ppic.org/main/pressrelease.asp?i=817

IOW Hillary does not do well with DTS (Decline to State) voters here in CA but is still doing quite fine with Democrats.

[melody]

81. Never mind PPI - they took down the HRC poster at one of the big LA County Dem hqs

Mainly because they had to keep putting up new ones due to the nasty messages scrawled over her big smug face.
They finally took it down completely because none of the party folk wanted to keep walking past her every
morning. I won't even tell you what her "nickname" is now.

My nephew's wife would dearly love to be able to change her daughter's name ... guess who she's named after. We all feel the same way.

You believe what you need to believe about your little golden smiling girl. Once she has destroyed our party altogether, it'll be even worse. You're always polite and you try to stay substantive, but I'm putting you on ignore simply because I can no longer abide looking at the monster's picture in your sig file.

[stillcool]

24. Is that with Michigan and Florida?

[rinsd]

32. I think you have a hard time including MI pop vote totals.

One can argue the straw poll value of FL's poll but MI does not allow for that.

Even if you give Obama every single Uncommitted (which you can't since Edwards encouraged his supporters to do that same) you cannot allow for how many votes one gets just from being on the ballot.

[tritsofme]

34. I would definitely include FL. MI is more complicated.

The best way to determine voter intent would be to extrapolate numbers from the exit poll.

However it might be easiest and least controversial to not include it all.

[sandnsea]

38. For the love of god, it's a DELEGATE ELECTION

The popular vote doesn't mean anything because not all states have primaries. The rules going in was ELECTING DELEGATES. If you support winning by changing the rules - you're a goddamn Republican.

What the hell is wrong with Hillary supporters.

[tritsofme]

45. Its a contest to get to 2024.

A majority of pledged delegates doesn't mean anything either, if you don't have 2,024 of them.

I do not support changing a single rule, however if Obama has a nominal lead in pledged delegates and Hillary has the direct support of the People through the popular vote, I think the winner of the popular vote has the strongest moral claim to the nomination.

[sandnsea]

50. There is NO popular vote

There can't be because of the caucus states. The popular vote is a RUSE. The only way Hillary can win is to overturn the real will of the people, expressed through the delegates they voted for.

[tritsofme]

51. Caucus voters can be accounted for in almost all cases.

If I have a choice between counting heads and counting up 50+ arcane and complicated delegate selection processes, I will go the most democratic route possible.

Until you reach 2024, it is up to the candidate to make a compelling case that they deserve the nomination to super-delegates.

[sandnsea]

55. The compelling case is winning the delegates

That's the system the DNC set up. Hillary has been playing games since day one. Do you remember that SHE is originally the one that reminded people we were electing delegates - because SHE was afraid people would look at the number of states or the popular vote. SHE thought SHE would win all these proportionate minority districts - oops, she didn't. That's when she switched to the "popular' vote story. Just like she originally said that everybody knew Michigan wasn't going to count - and then turns around and pretends she won. Why do you support that?

[tritsofme]

57. If Obama walks into Denver leading in votes and pledged delegates I will agree he deserves the nod

I don't know or particularly care what was said in the past, right now I am looking for the most representative measure to look at and have the SDs decide on a nominee.

[sandnsea]

60. So you basically want to win at all costs

and are willing to ignore anything that is uncomfortable to look at. Nice.

[BobTheSubgenius]

82. spot on

The rules is the rules. If they don't serve the will of the majority change them.......but not in the middle of a contest.

[BlooInBloo]

6. Actually, that's not a tautology.

[Window]

8. What lynyrd_sknyrd said.

:thumbsup:

[Bensthename]

11. Question: Are they able to poll these 300 K + new dem voters?

Newbies are O supporters supposable..

[PBS Poll-435]

14. Did they poll every Bowling Alley, Shooting Range, and Tavern?

I think not!

[Bensthename]

18. Those were calls to registered dems already.. I'm asking about the new ones.

[PBS Poll-435]

22. What *new* ones?

The last day to register was almost a month ago...

I would imagine they have been factored into the hopper.

[Bensthename]

26. ah hell, I was trying to squeeze in a few more Obama points.

[PBS Poll-435]

28. At least you were honest about it

:thumbsup:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. 24 points.

But let's not be picky.

Be the bigger person. :hug:

[Mezzo]

15. But she ALREADY HAS the lead in DEMOCRATS voting for her.

So she's goin' to the convention with the popular, and he'll have pledges.

[anonymous171]

19. No.

[PM7nj]

23. Do you have any proof to back this up?

I know she has won amongst registered Dems in some states that were close. Can you provide a link that shows she has won registered Dems overall?

[sandnsea]

40. So you approve of winning by CHEATING

Because that's what you're saying every damn time you mention popular votes or any other scenario except the election of delegates because that's what we're doing, electing delegates.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

46. He has the lead in DEMOCRATIC VOTERS

That is, people who requested a Democratic ballot in the primary. Many states allow crossing over. That is their prerogative. It's not for you or me to decide who the 'real' Democrats are.

[Mezzo]

65. Your "Many states allow crossing over" belies your point. MORE democrats have voted Hillary than BO

and you know it.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

68. Obama received MORE votes.

And you know it.

[demwing]

76. You're Absolutely Wrong - Popular Vote Counts, from RCP

Obama wins under each circumstance

Popular Vote Count

Basic Popular Vote Total
Obama - 13,355,209 (49.5%)
Clinton - 12,638,123 (46.9%)
Spread - Obama +717,086 (+2.6%)

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*
Obama - 13,689,293 (49.6%)
Clinton - 12,861,985 (46.6%)
Spread - Obama +827,308 (+3.0%)

Popular Vote (w/FL)
Obama - 13,931,423 (48.5%)
Clinton - 13,509,109 (47.1%)
Spread - Obama +422,314 (+1.4%)

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*
Obama - 14,265,507 (48.6%)
Clinton - 13,732,971 (46.8%)
Spread - Obama +532,536 (+1.8%)

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)**
Obama - 13,931,423 (47.65%)
Clinton - 13,837,418 (47.2%)
Spread - Obama +94,005 (+0.4%)

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*
Obama - 14,265,507 (47.6%)
Clinton - 14,061,280 (47.0%)
Spread - Obama +204,227 (+0.6%)

*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)

**(Senator Obama was not on the Michigan Ballot and thus received zero votes. Uncommitted was on the ballot and received 238,168 votes as compared to 328,309 for Senator Clinton.)


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Major Hogwash]

20. She's been doing the work for McCain for 6 weeks already. Richard Melon Scaife endorsed her.

That's more than enough proof to remove her from her candidacy - Hillary is no longer a Democrat!

[rinsd]

27. His paper endorsed her. Murdoch's endorsed Obama.

[Major Hogwash]

83. Richard Mellon Scaife owns that paper and the American Heritage magazine.

And he endorsed Hillary.

Hillary will NEVER be President.

NEVER.

[rinsd]

25. Being pledged delegate leader does not make one the nominee.

If you do not like that, encourage the party to change their rules and eliminate Superdelegates.

Until that happen Superdelegates can vote how they please and offer any rationale they see fit whether its pop vote, pledged delegates, district vote, state vote, electability arguments, she's a woman, he;s a black man, whatever.

[sandnsea]

41. Then why the hell are we voting?

What is wrong with you? If winning the delegates doesn't matter, than why the hell are we spending millions on an election? Why does Hillary keep having a piss fit over MI & FL? Why is it sooo important to let every state vote - if she's just going to have the supers decide anyway? Why don't you give a shit about the people?

[calmblueocean]

42. If the SDs give the nom to the one who has less pledged delegates, the party will tear itself apart.

Do you really think Obama supporters will accept Hillary if she's awarded the nomination even though she has less pledged delegates, fewer states won, and didn't win the popular vote? That's the state of things right now.

Could Obama collapse in the next few weeks? It's farfetched, but possible, so I don't begrudge Hillary's staying in the race. But if she wants the presidency, she has to acquire more delegates than Obama. Anything else is going to be perceived as unfair, and split the party apart.

[rinsd]

44. I don't see the Supes overturning pledged delegates unless....

...Hillary takes the pop vote and the pledged delegate lead is small (and I mean small). That scenario also involves the inclusion of FL as a straw poll.

[Yukari Yakumo]

53. Also...

If HRC is given the nom without any justifiable reason to do so...
(and, at the present, there are far more reasons not to give her the nom)

Young voters... gone.
AA voters... gone, and they may bolt to the RePukes if they play their cards right.

If HRH HRC get the nom, the Democratic Party would be totally destroyed for this election and probably the next few elections after this one. Rove dreamed of a permanent RePuke majority. HRC through her arrogance may just make that happen.

[PseudoIntellect]

73. Yeah, because superdelegates are DEFINITELY going to save Hillary.

just like they have been the last 2 months.

[tellmewhen]

54. You sound very confident

I wouldn't be so confident in a contest that is within the margin of error. Obama can win this.

[Leftist Agitator]

62. "...I fully expect Dennis Kucinich to win the nomination. He's the only liberal..."

Amen.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

64. Now that I've been called arrogant

I definitely want to get behind Obama.

[NorthCarolina]

69. Like you said

"If the delegate count really doesn't matter, then I fully expect Dennis Kucinich to win the nomination. He's the only liberal, so what's the problem with giving it to him?"

I'm all for that....

[gsaguyCLW54]

72. if the primaries were winner take all...

...Obama would be behind in delegates. thinking Hillary deserves to be in it to the end is not deserving of any ridicule

[GoldieAZ49]

79. It will go to the Super Delegates

if she wins big it will make her case

It will be up to them, not anyone else

[Honeycombe8]

80. Here here! I second that emotion. She's dragging the whole party down w/her. nt

[Vinca]

84. It's a shame she didn't make her bomb, bomb, bomb Iran statement

a couple of days ago. That might have resulted in a landslide for Barack.