Graph of today's PA polls with average of all of them

[usregimechange]

If you are an Obama supporter you can take heart in the PPP poll, which shows Obama in the lead but I am afraid that this is today's outlier. At the same time the poll had the largest sample size (n=2338) and the best MOE (+/- 2.0%).

[DerekJ]

1. Thanks ..:)

[usregimechange]

9. Welcome

[Nitrogenica]

2. With average?..Explain please.

[usregimechange]

3. Sorry, average of all of today's PA polls

[FARAFIELD]

4. The average of all the polls

Popularly refered to as a POLL OF POLLS, pretty much the most accurate thing out there. Still have to factor in Undecided though

[usregimechange]

6. and GOTV/turnout

[polichick]

5. I wonder if the PPP factors in new and/or switch voters...

Since most polls don't, it's actually quite a bit closer than it seems in PA.

[Barack_America]

10. Only the Obama campaign can poll them.

Considering they registered them and have their phone numbers.

That is the situation as I understand it.

[malik flavors]

7. If it actually ends up being a 6 point difference I'd be very happy.

[usregimechange]

8. That would be an Obama win given that she should win big in PA and that she needs delegates

and large numbers of raw votes.

[berni_mccoy]

11. Why is there a (D) by PPP and an (R) by Strategic Vision?

[berni_mccoy]

12. A Couple of Problems with your methodology

1. Outliers lay on both sides of the average. You can't call PPP an outlier without calling the other extreme as one. That would be Suffolk.

2. All of these polls have a significant number of undecided voters. The most accurate ones would be the ones with the least undecided counts. Your average should weigh the polls with fewer undecided votes heavier. This would give you a more accurate average.