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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
MUAD_DIB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:54 PM
Original message
Since it looks like it may be close tomorrow...

...depending on who you listen to will this vote really change the dynamic all that much?

If Hillary wins tomorrow how many delegates do you think she will get?

Will she pull ahead of Obama of be in a statistical tie?
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Bonobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. Not even close. If Hillary won 100% of the vote, she would still be way behind.
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 07:55 PM by Bonobo
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
2. Uh, she'd need to win PA by 102% to get a delegate tie.
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SoonerPride Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. 3 choices
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 07:56 PM by SoonerPride
1. Hillary wins by double digits = campaign lasts another month
2. Hillary wins by single digits = money dries up and her campaign ends after losing NC and IN next week.
3. Hillary loses = the campaign is over Wednesday morning.
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TheDoorbellRang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I think you've spelled it out pretty well
I'm praying for choice #3
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SoonerPride Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Me too, but I'm predicting what's behind door #2.
I think she wins a modest popular vote win, edges Barack by about 7-8 delegates and loses both N Carolina and Indiana next week and then concedes, based more on finances than anything else.
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cui bono Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. I'll take option 3, thanks. n/t
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Bok_Tukalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:56 PM
Response to Original message
4. The pledged delegate issue is over
From now on out, it is about the superdelegates and probably has been that way since Virginia.

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cui bono Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:58 PM
Response to Original message
6. She can't pull ahead... that is a known fact. n/t
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:00 PM
Response to Original message
8. She may net 10-12 but it shouldn't make a difference.. even a net 20 will leave him 141 ahead
in pledged delegates (depending oh who's numbers you use)


and he will move from needing about 380 to hit 2025 to about 310 to hit 2025.
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