Something Clinton supporters need to understand-

[adoraz]

I have seen far too many- and I mean FAR too many- posts from Hillary fans who say Obama should have won PA.

Some of you say ridiculous things like "Obama spent 4X as much cash, he had a month to catch up, why hasn't he? he should drop out since he can't seal the deal!".

I'm going to be honest- if Obama spent twice as much as he did on ads I STILL don't think he would have won.

If both of them spent 3 months in a state like West Virgina, and if Obama was outspending her 3:1, Hillary would still win and probably by double digits.

This is about demographics, some states Obama just CAN'T beat Hillary in, the same way how there are many states Hillary just can't beat Obama in. States favor certain candidates, this is true for all elections.

Obama has been favored by more states though.

The truth is, some of the remaining states (PA, West Virgina, and Kentucky) are states which are Clinton strongholds. This is the same for southern states with high black populations being strong Obama states.

Both Hillary and Obama spent a year in SC, yet Obama won by 28%. Why couldn't she keep it close?

Does anyone here honestly think if Obama and Hillary spent a month in Mississippi, just as they spent a month in PA, that Hillary would have won even if she had spent 5X as much money?

I certainly don't, infact I think Obama would have still won by at least 15%.

The same goes for Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Virginia, Maryland, Washington DC, Caucuses, and many other states. Some of these states, such as NC, are states Obama can easily win in the GE that Clinton would likely lose. They are IMPORTANT, not just PA is important.


Demographics in these states support Obama more, just as demographics in states like PA, WV, and Kentucky support Clinton.




The difference between the two candidates, is that Obama is making up amazing ground in these Clinton states. Clinton isn't making up any ground in Obama states.

He is making all Clinton states competitive. He is actually putting PA in play, just as he put Texas and Ohio in play.

The problem with Clinton, is that she keeps getting SLAUGHTERED in Obama favored states, and people don't see anything wrong with that. What did she lose, 11 states by over 17% IN A ROW??? And you are all saying Obama should win this one state which Clinton was favored by over 20% in??

Besides, just because Clinton wins PA tomorrow doesn't meant Obama won't win PA in November.

[Mezzo]

1. Oh, but he didn't spend "twice as much", he outspent her 4 to 1.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

2. You might try actually reading the OP. Just a thought. nt

[mkultra]

3. to bad its all over if she doesnt get 64%

[adoraz]

4. are you kidding me?

please tell me you are kidding.

I wrote in the OP 4X anyways. read it.

[BeyondGeography]

8. He spent $9 million; she spent $4 million

[adoraz]

11. so it basically was 2X anyways

thanks for that

[XemaSab]

6. Part of that is fundraising and part of that is strategy

And is Obama responsible for Hillary's fundraising and strategy? :shrug:

[BlooInBloo]

7. 2.3:1 actually.

[johnnydrama]

13. Clinton Math

2.2:1 = 4:1

Obamna winning 14 states to 9 on Super Tuesday = Hillary winning more states on Super Tuesday.

[adoraz]

18. makes sense to me

:sarcasm: :)

[karynnj]

27. Well, according to MSNBC this morning -

HRC and co thiink that math doesn't matter, it's about feeling - who the superdelegates feel will be the best to go against McCain in the general election.

So, I protest as a woman, who majored in math in college and worked in that field, that this is sexist! This is as bad as the talking Barbie doll saying that she hates algebra. It is stereotyping and it is suggesting to young girls that it is ok not to spend the time and effort to be competent in math. :sarcasm:

Actually, it is HRC trying to change the rules - Obama is winning the game as set up and she is trying to change the rules - not very sportsman like. So, this is my faux outrage.

[BeyondGeography]

5. Absolutely true...Clinton has received over 60% of the vote only once

in Arkansas. Obama has topped 60% 15 times.

K&R

[Andy823]

14. Excellent point

Although I am sure that Clinton supporters won't understand that kind of logic! :shrug:

[adoraz]

17. yep, people seem to forget this soon.

11 in a row by 17% or more.

[Diane R]

9. Let Hillary and Barack spend 6 weeks in Wash. Sts, and see if she can win. Not a chance.

Pennsylvania is HER demographic; not his. It will mean nothing if she wins, but will mean everything if she loses.

[adoraz]

16. yep exactly

the fact that Obama is keeping PA close is amazing.

[Olney Blue]

10. While I was reading your post, it reminded me of how often I have been

amazed at the extreme variation among the states in the voting outcomes. It's very interesting, isn't it? Tomorrow is going to be exciting.

[ShortnFiery]

12. Exactly. With the notable exception of Senator Casey, HRC has the PA Democratic Machine behind her.

Senator Obama will be our Democratic Nominee. God willing, Barack Obama will be our next President of The United States. :patriot:

[adoraz]

15. sorry guys, edited the OP

there were a lot of spelling errors. I was in a rush typing it.

[Eagle_Eye]

19. So Obama calls on Hillary to fold, and assume she does.

Then Obama calls on McCain to fold, and he keeps on campaigning to the bitter end.

What experience is Obama going to call on to actually win the election over McCain, who refuses to capitulate under pressure?

[SwampG8r]

21. huh?

:crazy:

[Eagle_Eye]

25. You are obviously an Obama supporter

[SwampG8r]

31. i guess my need rational input gave me away

[Eagle_Eye]

40. I guess your need rational grammar gave you away too

[SwampG8r]

41. thanks grammar cop good job

[TLM]

23. You seem not to understand there's only one election day in the GE...

So how is it going to drag on and on like the primary race?

[Eagle_Eye]

24. You seem not to understand there's only one election leading to the GE

Obama does not have the mettle to prevail over McCain, but Hillary does.

Obama supporters look out over the results of the Primary races and say "It is just about even up; give the nomination to my guy because about half of us like him."

Hillary is holding fast to her half of the Democratic vote in spite of the overwhelming money, press, and vocal support Obama is getting.

Obama cannot pull off a victory over Hillary with all the advantages he has; Obama will not be able to pull off a victory over McCain in the GE.

[GoesTo11]

26. How is Obama going to "win the election over McCain, who refuses to capitulate under pressure?"

McCain shown here refusing to capitulate.

[doublethink]

20. Very well thought out argument. Thanks for taking the time to post it.

:thumbsup:

[adoraz]

22. thanks :)

[Orsino]

28. Time was on Obama's side, but it's run out.

I think (or I'd like to think) that with another month or two of increasing name recognition, Obama could open a major lead in PA. Heck, for all I know, he has--but I suspect that he's only been able to narrow the enormous gap of a few months back.

Sure, the opposition can claim that Obama's buying the state, but I think that all that money is a symptom of his major grassroots support. He's bringing a lot of new voters to the table, whereas Clinton supporters have already given. He's got the momentum right now, but I doubt it will be enough to win the state.

[Enrique]

29. I agree

but if she wins, it hurts the case for demanding Hillary drop out.

[adoraz]

33. glad a Hillary supporter agrees with me

[ElsewheresDaughter]

30. "Obama won more states"...too bad landmass can't vote

[Gore1FL]

32. Luckily

We have delegates that take into account the Democratic voting population.

[adoraz]

34. huh?

other landmasses? like Democrats Abroad (which Obama won by a ridiculous margin)?

[Texas Hill Country]

35. he has outspent her by 2 to 4 times in OH, TX and PA.... you shouldnt have to sell a candidate that

hard in big states to your own party... and then not win. it is a very very bad sign.

[adoraz]

37. answer this:

If Hillary outspent Barack 4:1 in states such as Georgia and Virginia, would she have won?

[futureliveshere]

36. Well Written.. Excellent Post...K&R

[adoraz]

38. just kicking this for people to keep in mind during the primary

[ProSense]

39. It's about educating people and trying to change perception.

It's why Hillary pushed the NAFTA issue in Ohio and the gun, patriotism and NAFTA issues in PA.

Perceptions that people have held for years, shaped by experiences or misinformation, are hard to change. Hillary didn't plant these perceptions, she fed the doubt and distrust.

Still, perceptions can change given the right amount of exposure to facts. There are Bush voters who have turned away from Bush, and some who have turned away from the Republican Party.