Final Zogby tracking poll: Clinton up big in PA-51-41%

[Tropics_Dude83]

Looks like Hillary is going to get AT LEAST the 10 point margin that she needs to stay in the race. It's not going to be a good few days for Obama that's for sure. Loss in a key swing state that democrats need by double digits with poor performances in key democratic constituencies. I was just watching CNN and Mark Halperin said that Indiana is a hugely important battleground state that both must win.

Obama has to find a way to win Indiana since it looks like he's about to get blown out in Pennsylvania or else he's in deep trouble with the superdelegates whose focus is on electability. It's really not about pledged delegates anymore. It's about what the superdelegates will do.

Obama will have to find a way to recover or the nomination will slip away from him.

This poll was completed just a couple of hours ago as well so it has a very good read on the latest breaking developments.

Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Hillary Takes 10-Pt. Lead in Pa.

Monday, April 21, 2008 10:35 PM

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton continued to pull away from rival Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois as the campaigning in Pennsylvania ended and voters prepared to cast ballots Tuesday, the latest Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.

Clinton now leads Obama, 51% to 41%, having gained three points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, pushing her beyond the poll’s margin of error to create a statistically significant lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania daily tracking poll.


Meanwhile, 6% remained undecided and another 3% said they preferred someone else in the two-day tracking poll. It was conducted April 20-21, 2008, using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 675 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. Hey, what happened to that Gallup poll that showed Obama collapsing? Do you have today's update?

[MadBadger]

2. Alright Benedict, you can have Zogby and Newsmax.

[Muttocracy]

3. "Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York"

odd thing to mention in a poll summary.

Newsmax is a legit news source since when?

[PanchoBass]

9. Newsmax does not conduct the poll

Zogby does.

[anonymous171]

4. lol zogby

[Rosa Luxemburg]

41. do they poll people with cell phones too?

[UndertheOcean]

5. Oh no !

[Honeycombe8]

6. Zogby's poll in 2004 said Kerry had won the general election. We know how that ...

turned out. I no longer pay much attention to Zogby. However they conduct their polls, it doesn't seem to work very well anymore.

[Tropics_Dude83]

11. Newsmax isn't legit but Zogby is included in pollster.com and RCP's average n/t

[NorthCarolina]

19. They collect their polling by on-line questionaire

I registered for Zogby and got invited to take many of their polls over the past couple years. However, I stopped getting polling invitations a couple months ago which I attribute to me being a little to far-left in my responses for them at this particular time in the campaign.

[JPettus]

48. Actually, from what I have read

Kerry DID win the general election. Exit polling showed conclusively that Kerry was going to win as well.

All polling will tell you is a statistical concept of what people's preferences are.

[thewiseguy]

7. Latest breaking developments? LOOOOL

:rofl:

Hey whatever happened to the Gallup poll? Do you know? :rofl:

[TheDonkey]

8. LOL, oh yes, this ensure the results. Of course.

:rofl:

btw Kerry is president

[kenny blankenship]

10. Wow, 10% short of what she'd need to justify continuing this trainwreck

[TahitiNut]

26. Exactly.

[melody]

12. She needs 50%

And she still won't pull it off.

[rodeodance]

52. moving the goal posts is a favorite past time of many obama fans

[DJ13]

13. Thats actually really BAD news...... for Clinton

Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Final Zogby Poll: Obama Up 13 In California, Clinton Gaining Elsewhere

With just hours to go before voting starts in Super Tuesday states across the country (and don't forget about American Samoa), Barack Obama is gaining steam in California, while Hillary Clinton is re-gaining ground in former strongholds like New Jersey and Missouri. According to Pollster John Zogby's final tracking polls, Obama now enjoys a 13-point led in California, a remarkable accomplishment if accurate, but he now trails by 5 in New Jersey (after being tied yesterday, signaling a strong move towards Clinton in the past day or so) and his five-point Missouri lead has been cut to 3, just outside the polls margin-of-error.

n California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

http://swarheit.blogspot.com/2008/02/final-zogby-poll-obama-up-13-in.html



Dont tell me you already forgot how "accurate" Zogby is?


:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[thewiseguy]

15. I am hoping he is as accurate as Ohio and California :)

LOL

[PM7nj]

14. Why are you going by Zogby?

He knows SHIT! I don't know how many times I have said this.

About 5 polls came out today and only this one and 1 other show Hillary with a 10pt lead. All the others are less. Anything could happen.

[Tropics_Dude83]

21. I just call things as I see them-n/t

[thewiseguy]

31. Did you see the gallup poll too? Because there was no surge thread from you this time?!

[Hepburn]

53. As you see them?

Consider getting glasses...really STRONG glasses! :rofl:

[jackson_dem]

22. 7 now. 3 have her up by 10

The thing about Zog is he always shows Obama higher than O actually is. He had O tied in Ohio and winning California...

[malik flavors]

42. Oh, I see what you did there.

[jezebel]

16. Todayt he poll must have been Obama 44 Clinton 49 (much better than yesterday's C 53 O 38) so Obama

is on the rise even though the poll spread grew.

[woolldog]

24. In that case I think we can disregard Sunday's poll as an anomaly

which means the 2 day average (Sun + Mon) overstates her lead.

This is actually a good sign if you're an Obama supporter, imo.

[XemaSab]

17. With 6% undecided, so it could be 51-47.

:P

[dbonds]

18. One thing is for certain...

nothing is for certain.

[cottonseed]

20. When does Hillary plan on turning these Super Delegates?

I guess, after watching the landslide of SDs going Obama lately, I just don't see how she'll actually make that case to the Super Delegates. They just don't seem to be buying her arguments. It will be interesting to say the least.

[saltpoint]

23. Maybe Zogby will get this one right after several he's gotten wrong of

late.

We'll see.

If HRC wins by 10 in Pennsylvania, she'll still be well out of reach of the nomination and well behind the man who is going to take the stage in Denver.

[Tropics_Dude83]

32. Zogby track record

Zogby got GOP Florida right when some polls had Romney up front. He had Mccain up right from the start. He got NV, SC, GA, NJ, MO and TX right as well on the democratic side.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

25. Clinton up by only 5 in the last day of polling

As it was much discussed yesterday, Clinton was 15 up in the April 20 sample. Since she's up 10 on the average of April 20 and April 21, this means she's up 5% in the April 21 sample. That sounds about right, and the April 20 sample was a clear outlier.

[jezebel]

27. Yep Clinton dropped 4 points from yesterday and Obama climbed 6. I'll take it. nt

[thewiseguy]

28. Zogby has gone mad..lol

[jefferson_dem]

29. Where do you come up with this shit?

10% is not a blowout.

Hillary would stay in the race, regardless of her margin of victory.

Only Hillary "must win" IN...in order to have a talking point.

Even if Hillary wins the PA primary, that says very little about Obama's General election chances in that state.

The only one in "deep trouble" is Hillary - with the PDs, with the pop vote, with the SDs, with $...and so on and so on.

SDs have broken Obama's way since she won her "blow out" (by your standards) in OH. That trend will continue unless Hillary pulls the 20% margin every objective observer knows she needs.

Obama will more than "recover" from whatever happens tomorrow in NC and IN on May 6. What will you say then?

...

[Tropics_Dude83]

37. What will I say then?-I'll say great

I'm not against Obama at all. He'd be a fine nominee. I'm just supporting Hillary because of her strength in FL/OH and key democratic constituencies. Her road to 270 is just easier. I'd rather win with Hillary than lose with Barack against Mccain even though I like Barack much much more. That's why I switched.

[Hepburn]

55. Hillary will be another Dukakis.

There is NO manner of any nature whatsoever by which she has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the GE ~~ even against Grandpa McCain. Her negatives are through the roof and she is just truly hated by so many factions.

JMHO

[Alcibiades]

39. Stop using logic!

"Even if Hillary wins the PA primary, that says very little about Obama's General election chances in that state."

Huh? What? Oh, right. Primaries in different states are conducted with different sets of voters choosing from different sets of candidates, and in no way indicate the result of the general election. Political scientists (and anyone who knows anything about politics at all) have known this forever. How this morphed into such a big talking point for the Clinton campaign, I'll never know.

My other favorite is the one about how she can win "the big states we need to win in November." As if, again, winning in the primary had anything to do with the GE. As if the electoral college system didn't actually structurally disadvantage big state voters.

With such logic has the Clinton campaign run itself aground.

[kwenu]

30. No. Hillary was up big when she had a 20 point lead in PA. This is poor for the Woman from Scranton.

[Firespirit]

33. Hey let's not be so hard on him, polls are very very important to him

After all, he abandons his candidate based on them.

[MadBadger]

34. Worst supporter ever.

[Debi]

35. Didn't Zogby have Obama up by 13% in California on primary day?

Yeah, not really a bullseye there x(

[zulchzulu]

36. Hillary may get 10 more delegates than Obama tomorrow

That would make her 150+ behind him in the delegate count, which is how the nominee is chosen. Add that Zogby polls have been the Kiss of Death in the primaries.

So the race may go another two weeks before Obama is the nominee...

[demwing]

38. You Again?

If Obama wins tomorrow, will you switch back?

If Clinton wins in Indiana, will you switch again?

When you switch, are you always like an ex-smoker? Suddenly more intelligent than everyone else, secure in your moral superiority, until you finally brake down and take the next puff? What will you do if your switch fails you? Who will you cling to?

I suggest you find yourself before you find a candidate to carry you.

[Tropics_Dude83]

40. If Barack wins tommorrow, that's great

It will have shown that he has encroached on HRC's core constituencies, has the ability to pull a surprise upset, has not suffered from Wright and bittergate and can win a critical swing state.

[ericgtr]

43. Yeah just ignore the MSM of +6 for Hillary.. this one must be right!

[Thrill]

44. This is good news for Obama

considering how awful Zogby has been

[aaaaaa5a]

Undecideds Breaking For Obama...............

Zogby's polls are two day averages.

On Sunday he had C-51 O-38

This means on Monday he had C-51 O-44

This averages out to a 51-41 which is Zogby's final number.

This means according to Zogby, on Monday undecideds were breaking for Obama.

Zogby's last 4 days. (individual daily polling)

Friday...... C-49 O-40
Saturday.... C-43 O-46
Sunday...... C-51 0-38
Monday...... C-51 O-44

[wisteria]

45. Repub polling. I live in Western Pa and I don't believe this polling. n/t

[Lisa0825]

46. so now 10% is BIG?

Moving the goalposts again, eh? If shhe wins by 20%, that means Obama cut her lead in half. Not to mention the fact that she will gain a paltry few delegates with 10%.

[SoCalDem]

47. Newsmax/Zogby

:rofl:

[stillcool]

49. Hillary is supposed to win by 20+

that's where the goal post is. Anything less, and she is losing support. I wonder why?

[Frank Booth]

50. Hey Tropics_Dude. I'm still trying to figure out your angle.

Are you actually a Hillary supporter now? Are you a secret Obama supporter who's suddenly going to see the light again? Are you a secret McCain supporter?

Or, are you just trying to get attention?

I'm leaning toward the last one.

[ORDem]

51. Yeah! Damn! Those Dems are sure to vote for McSame!!! Yeah, that's the ticket!

:eyes:

[DesEtoiles]

54. ignored

[dchill]

56. "the 10 point margin that she needs to stay in the race."

:crazy:

[Milo_Bloom]

57. Unless she gets MORE than 20%, it is quite an empty victory.

Go to the slate delegate counter and do the math.

[TK421]

58. Oh..polls...no offense,TropicsDude83, but we just won't know until tomorrow

personally, I think it will be a higher margin...but let's just wait and see

Polls do nothing but raise the expectations of some, only to bring those expectations down when the results are less than one expects....I've been subject to that before; I give them no credence

Let's just wait 'till tomorrow...I'm confident in my state

[thewiseguy]

59. I find it very unusual but Zogby is not saying much about his latest poll

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1487

I guess you need to subscribe to their shitty poll to view more of what Zogby has to say. :)

[mckeown1128]

60. Over at Kos they kinda debunked this...

This poll shows an improvement from Sunday nights... Sunday apparenlty had Hillary up 13 while tonights has Hillary up 6. So, it shows her losing ground.

[johnnydrama]

61. let's just say

Any daily poll that has

Hillary going from

49 to 43 to 51 to 51

and Obama going from

40 to 46 to 38 to 44

when absolutely nothing happened in the news, is a shit poll.

Obama going up and down 6 points each day is ludicrous.

[Gore1FL]

62. Unfortunately for her

even double that margin isn't enough in the scope of the remaining delegates.

At this point, a 10% win in every remaining contest isn't enough, and she is not on the remotest of tracks to even do that.

[kevinbgoode]

63. the latest Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. . . .rightwing media-sponsored polling.