Key to Obama's victory in Pennsylvania

[thewiseguy]

For Obama to pull out a shocker tomorrow, Philadelphia needs to constitute 46%+ of the voting block. (This is the number that polls are expecting)However if turnout in Philadelphia is greater than what the pollsters expect then he is going to make this race much closer.

Also if his margin of victory in Philadelphia is greater than 20%, combined with the expected turnout, then Obama will win Pennsylvania.

Currently in Philadelphia

PPP has Obama up 58-32 (+26)
Mason Dixon has him up 49-44 (+5)
SurveyUSA has him up by 55-41 (+14)
Quinnipiac has him up 52-43 (+9)

Which brings me to this point. Do not forget about the record number of new registered voters from the Philadelphia area. Most of those are Obama supporters. I do not see why Obama can not win Philadelphia by 20%. Obviously these new voters would perhaps boost the 46% turnout forecast for the Philly area as well.

Hillary needs to win the Pittsburgh region big. SUSA has her up by 22 points there. That is a huge lead which if halved can shock the world tomorrow.

Thanks to kos for the numbers.

I feel very intrigued about tomorrow's results.

[Skittles]

1. I think he will do well n/t

[thewiseguy]

2. I think so too. We need an awesome turnout in Philadelphia.

[cliffordu]

3. I agree.

[rocktivity]

4. This dovetails into my "benchmarks"

Which I posted earlier today:

Clinton's "magic number" is 65, Obama's is 45--that's the percentage of the vote each will need for a victory that actually matters.

Hey--have I been plagiarized?

;)
rocknation

[thewiseguy]

5. I am hoping for an Obama win tomorrow night!

[NJSecularist]

6. Philly will not consist of 46% of the voting bloc.

It is possible that the Southeast will consist of 46% of the Pennsylvania electorate, but that also consists of Bucks, Montgomery and Lancaster Counties, all which favor Hillary.

[Cant trust em]

7. I'll be happy if he can keep it to a single digit Clinton win.

[guyanakoolaid]

8. I'll say it one more time... Obama by 2%

[guyanakoolaid]

9. maybe 3%

:party: :toast: :party: :party: :patriot: :beer: :toast: :bounce: :toast: :party: :toast: :headbang: :applause: :toast:

[MarjorieG]

10. Relieved if keeps it to single digits.

Primaries all always different than general. The brand of Clinton still weighs heavily, many women want opportunity, once at least, to vote for a woman. Many will still vote for Obama come general. I hope the spinners will admit all these undramatic conditions.

Many in her camp still want to go to Convention, and Corzine, for instance, still uses popular vote as incorrect measure.

[ps1074]

11. For Obama to win

He needs a huge Philadelphia turnout (40% of all primary votes) and winning it by 2:1 (65-35). I find it highly unlikely.

[TahitiNut]

12. Most delegates are not elected statewide. 103 are elected by Congressional District

The 'prize' is the 2nd Congressional District's 9 delegates. There are seven delegates each from the 1st, 7th, 8th, 13th, and 14th Congressional Districts and six from the 6th. Each of the other twelve Congressional Districts get lesser number of delegates down to 3 delegates from the 9th Congressional District.

Interestingly, if either candidate gets 1 vote more than 85% in any Congressional District they get ALL those delegates.

Fifty-five delegates are awarded statewide which means about 1 delegate for each 2% of the statewide popular vote.

All this obsession on the statewide vote is only a ROUGH approximation ... and it matters WHERE the vote is.

Tuesday 22 April 2008: 158 of 187 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Pennsylvania Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.

* 103 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 19 congressional districts.
o CD 9: 3 delegates
o CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each
o CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each
o CDs 6: 6 delegates each
o CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each
o CD 2: 9 delegates
* In addition, 55 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
o 35 at-large National Convention delegates
o 20 Pledged PLEOs

The remaining 29 National Convention delegates consist of

* 26 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
o 13 Democratic National Committee members.
o 12 Members of Congress (1 Senator and 11 Representatives).
o 1 Governor.
o 0 Distinguished Party Leaders (Note: Governor Edward Gene "Ed" Rendell, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 1999 to 2001, is a Distinguished Party leader. Reasoning that the office holder position is better known to the public in general, The Green Papers treats elected officials who are Governors, U.S. Senators, or U.S. House members and Distinguished Party Leaders or DNC members as office holders.).
* 3 Unpledged "add-on"s (selected by the Pennsylvania State Democratic Committee).

These 29 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PA-D.phtml