PA prediction - How much does Hillary need to win by to call it a 'significant win'?

[Dawgs]

This is not a poll to predict the outcome of the race, but one to predict how much Hillary needs to win by to claim a major victory. BTW, I know she'll claim a major victory even if she wins by just one vote. I want to know what you think the rest of the world will percieve as a major win?

I think she needs to win by at least 8 points for this to be labeled a large victory.

I think Obama needs to get as close as 5 points to keep the media from spinning it for Hillary.

What do y'all think?

[Avalux]

1. Double-digits at least.

She had a 20 point lead a few weeks ago; anything less than double-digits won't be significant. Remember she needs MONEY - needs to win big to make people want to contribute.

[polpilot]

2. At least by 40% to stay in...but she is 'math challenged'

[islandmkl]

3. considering her lead was 20 points not too long ago...

12 (60%) points would be marginal at best...

she needs to show that she can forestall erosion...for ONCE

[Zachstar]

4. 10 to gain a few million 20 to gain halfway a warchest

It is all about getting new donors. With no money after defending her lead in PA she is likely within a few million of ruin.

I said 5 but because of her many gates I think people will quickly notice they are donating to a black hole if it is under 10 due to her only picking up a few delegates.

[vi5]

5. I think it's pretty much single vs. double digits...

Anything 10+ I think she can successfully spin as a victory.

Anything under that, after leading by as much as 20 points not all that long ago, and spinning it as a victory and she'll look even more foolish than she already does calling it a victory.

[flor de jasmim]

6. I think she needs more

Since most polls predict about an 8-point victory, that cannot be considered "significant", only expected. In order to help herself with the delegates, she needs something like 25% or more of the votes, so I'd say 15% as a minimum. Of course, she will try to spin even a single vote more than Obama as a victory, but the rest of us have to keep our heads on straight!

[flor de jasmim]

7. duplicate

[Atman]

8. The Hillary people will say it's a major victory no matter what.

She could "win" by one vote, or even negative 10, and they'll still say "SEE! OBAMA CAN'T WIN!"

.

[thereismore]

16. Since she is the "underdog" in this race... but this is not a freaking winner take all! nt

[sellitman]

9. 15-20 points

Remember that Obama will likely offset even a 20 point win here with a bigger win in NC.

[virtualobserver]

10. if she wins by one vote.....the networks will help her move the goalposts

[undeterred]

11. If she loses by 20 she'll call it a 'significant win'- she's Hillary.

[Dbdmjs1022]

12. If she gets 10%, the media will spin it as a victory

Realistically she needs at lest 15%, but the spin will determine what exactly a victory is in most people's minds.

[saltpoint]

13. If Mrs. Clinton isn't nominated and elected to the White House, poor old

Ed Rendell won't get a Cabinet slot.

So for poor ol' Ed the Hillary vote totals simply can't be high enough.

I think the PA outcome could be a lot closer than the 19- or 20-plus lead Mrs. Clinton had a month ago.

Polling indicates a Clinton win now by as much as 14 or as little as 3, with only one lone poll suggesting an Obama win, plus a random media talking head or two.

She changes the dynamic with a 20-plus win, essentially a landslide repudiation of Obama in a pivotal demographic state. Under 10, Obama is the nominee and our next president.

[baldguy]

14. Over 20 points.

Anything less, Obama is still in the race. If its less than 20 pts, nothing changes.

[NorthCarolina]

15. If she wins by 1 she stays in, if she loses by 1 she's out n/t

[powergirl]

17. If she wins by a gnat's eyebrow, she will call it decisive and

a game changer. If she loses, all of us who voted for Obama are sexist ignoramuses. :evilgrin:

[SheilaT]

18. The unfortunate truth is

that Obama is ahead by more delegates -- 1648 to 1509 -- than are at stake in Pennsylvania, 158. Which means, even if she gets 90 percent of the vote, or whatever it would take to get all of the delegates, she still remains behind in the delegate count. And that's all that matters.

The distressing thing about her refusal to bow out is that both the Hillary and the Obama supporters become more and more entrenched, meaning more and more likely not to vote for the ultimate Democratic nominee if it's not the one the supporter prefers. Just get used to the idea of President McCain.

[quantass]

19. Think about it! She NEEDS 20%+ otherwise catching up becomes more insurmountable