PA: If voter turnout is low: Clinton wins / If voter turnout is high: Obama wins

[powergirl]

I have always maintained this in each state. The fewer Democrats who actually vote, the better Sen. Clinton's chances. This bothers the bejeezus out of me - especially in the general election.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9735.html

"An historic spike in Democratic voter registrations in Pennsylvania could help Barack Obama cut into Hillary Clinton’s vote in Tuesday’s primary, robbing her of the big victory margin she needs to justify continuing the primary fight.

"The changing party demographics also are contributing to an overall bluing of the Keystone State that could dim Republican John McCain’s hopes of competing there in the fall.

"A county-by-county analysis by Politico suggests that the hard-fought primary between Obama and Clinton has accelerated an ongoing partisan shift in Pennsylvania that could soon move it out of the battleground presidential states and ripple across congressional races this fall, as well."

(cut)

"According to the Secretary of State’s office, since January about 217,000 new voters have registered for the April 22 primary, the vast majority of whom signed up as Democrats.

"In Philadelphia, by far the state’s largest city, more than 12,000 new Democrats were added to the rolls in the final week before the March registration deadline, compared to just 509 Republicans.

"That statewide Democratic surge has been accompanied by a flood of party-switching. More than 178,000 voters have changed their party status since January — and the Democrats have captured 92 percent of those voters."

(cut)

"Those party-switchers now represent about 7 percent of the roughly 2 million Democratic voters expected to turnout Tuesday, said Madonna.

"A poll of those switchers and new registrants released by Madonna last week found that Obama was the preferred candidate for 62 percent of them. Clinton insiders said they are also bracing for the same 60-40 split among newly registered Democrats."


:bounce:

[saltpoint]

1. The bluer the better, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, for Democratic wins

at all ballot levels, and let's just watch that old turd McCain deal with it.

[powergirl]

2. This also shows that Obama can easily win PA -

despite what the Clinton campaign says/wishes.

[saltpoint]

3. Agree -- there is that significant push of new voters, and Obama could

be the beneficiary by sheer arithmetic.

Love your avatar.

[papau]

4. turnout is very high - CNBC commentator reveals changing to Dem for the day to vote Obama

[formernaderite]

5. how much of this is right wingers

turning dem to fuck up the vote?

[TheDoorbellRang]

6. About a week ago a former Republican newbie

posted that he had changed his registration to vote for Obama, but added that there was much paperwork involved. I wonder if Rush's dittoheads would invest that much effort or have that much foresight to change registration merely to mess with the vote. I guess we'll see. :shrug: