Clinton: "If he doesn't win (PA), what does that say about his ability to win the big states?"

[sabra]

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/clinton_what_pa_says_obama_not.html

<snip>

"I am not going to make any predictions about how I am going to do in Pennsyulvania,'' Clinton said in an interview aired by NBC's Today Show today. But "Sen. Obama is outspending me to two, three four to one... If he doesn't win, what does that say about his ability to win the big states?

"It doesn't say much,'' replied Obama, in his own interview with Today aired today. "We do better among independent s than Sen. Clinton does. What it says is that she started off here with a 20 point lead.''

Asked about losing to Clinton in California, New York and Ohio, Obama said: "Well, hold on a second... If anybody thinks that I'll lose California or New York in the general election, there is no chance of that happening.''

[Larkspur]

1. Obama will win CA, NY, and PA in the general election

Hillary has damaged herself irreparably against McCain. She's made McCain's job against a possible Hillary prez candidacy easy.

[jackson_dem]

4. PA is iffy with Obama, he will likely lose OH, he is a joke in FL

[kentuck]

12. I don't think PA will be "iffy" for either Democrat.

And I don't think Hillary can do as well in the general election in OH as Obama, even though she won the primary, and either of them will have a tough time beating McCain in OH...

[jackson_dem]

18. Clinton runs 8 points better than him in OH, 5-6 points better in PA

To take PA for granted would be a mistake. If we can't win PA we won't win Ohio, which is slightly more rethug.

[kentuck]

28. There are assumptions in those numbers...

Assuming Obama voters vote for Hillary and vice versa, then the only number that would be significant would be the number of each candidate that refuses to vote for the other. It is true that more Hillary supporters say they will not vote for Obama than the other way around. However, with the large number of new registration and the Republicans that have changed stripes, I would think PA is stronger for the Democrats than OH. I would not take it for granted but it would seem like a logical assumption.

[jackson_dem]

32. Obama's problem is basically this: he can't win the "Reagan Democrats" in the key states

And he will prove that again today...he is winning the primaries overall because of the unique racial and class demographics of Dem primaries. Put in GE demographics and he would be out of the race right now after losing the national popular vote by double digits. He is flawed. She is flawed. The problem is his flaws will be magnified in the general election...

[kentuck]

37. Oh, I think Obama can win the Reagan Democrats..

and many more Independents and disenchanted Republicans than Hillary and he will win almost the same number of Democrats as Hillary in the General Election. This makes him the stronger candidate, in my opinion. Hillary's negatives are extremely high and she is very limited in the potential votes she can receive. However, she can still win over the Republican candidate, just not as well as Obama, in my humble opinion.

[jackson_dem]

39. He does no better with rethugs in GE polling

He does do better with indies but that is offset by him doing worse among Democrats. Essentially by nominating him we are trading away Dems for a gamble on indies who like Obama before the other party has attacked him. Obama's current performance is very misleading. He is still "new", largely unvetted and most importantly has not been attacked by the other party. Bush and Kerry lost 11 points from the spring to November in 2000 and 2004. If the same thing holds for Obama, the "new" candidate of this year, he will lose the general election by the same margin Carter did...

The other point is in the key swing states he does not get more indies than her. Where he gets indies is in places like Montana where we will lose anyway. That bumps up his national numbers.

You make a good point about negatives but they are also indictive of how weak Obama is. He is far more liked than Clinton yet many folks who like him won't vote for him. He does no better nationally than Hillary against McSame in the popular vote and worse in the electoral college. Clearly something is holding back many folks who like Obama from wanting to elevate him to the presidential chair. I think it is clear what that is: inexperience. Obama can't take "how to be president 101" over the summer. He can't correct this problem. Clinton's problem is of perception and more manageable; his problems can't be corrected in 2008. Now in 2016 he would probably be unbeatable when he has experience.

[kentuck]

42. "trading away Dems for a gamble on indies..."

Yes, the voters know Hillary. They know that she has negatives of over 50% as reported today. That is a big wall to climb. Obama has the lowest negatives of the 3 candidates running for the Presidency. Hillary has the highest. As for experience, I think that is a negative in this race also. People don't want more of the "experience" they have seen for the last decade or so. That is not a positive for Hillary.

The new voters that Obama has brought into the Party will not vote for Hillary. Write it down. They are looking for change. They are not loyal to the Clintons or the Democratic Party. You lose that and you lose the future of the Party. We need to grow the Party - not shrivel up in a fearful little corner and pretend that Hillary is the answer. She is not. It's a brave new world.

[otohara]

21. Why A Joke

in Florida? Is it because he followed the rules, aside from those national ads that ran until his campaign pulled?

[jackson_dem]

31. Because you can't win FL with 27% of the white vote, which is what he is getting there

[otohara]

33. Ugh

disheartening news - If you've got any African blood in you, that makes you black. My son is 1/2 Japanese, he is not considered Japanese.

[RaleighNCDUer]

43. Democracy is a joke in Florida.

Neither Obama nor Hillary can overcome the Sequoia vote - Florida is already lost.

[dionysus]

36. florida is a joke... they have fucked us twice in a row...

[Larkspur]

47. Obama can afford to lose FL. He picks up Western States that Hillary loses

The West is where Dems are growing. The Republicans can have the South for now.

[Coexist]

34. yes, he will.

[Diamond Dog]

2. What the fuck does it matter?

California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania are all Democratic safe states. Ohio might be difficult, but not even a tossup.

[jackson_dem]

8. Pennsylvania is not a safe Dem state. Kerry won it by a mere 2 points

Gore eked out a similarly narrow victory.

Why does it matter? We elect presidents based on electoral votes.

[Enrique]

13. Ohio is very important

as is Fl of course.

I'm not sure, however, how relevant the primary results are to the prospects in the general election.

[jackson_dem]

19. Well O does 8 points worse than H in OH and 12 points worse in FL in GE polling

[jackson_dem]

3. Let's look at the board

CA-Clinton
TX-Clinton
NY-Clinton
FL-Clinton
IL-Obama
PA-Clinton?
MI-Clinton
NJ-Clinton
GA-Obama*

*The way he won it would be impossible in the general election. He won on racial voting. That won't cut it when 70-75% of the GE vote in GA is white.

[slick8790]

9. Do you really believe any democrat will lose CA and NY?

Well, go on. Do you?

[jackson_dem]

24. No but that isn't the issue (although Obama is losing NY right now)

The keys are OH, FL, PA, and MI. FL is out the window with Obama. That means he would probably have to sweep the remaining three...

[slick8790]

35. I'd like to see where Obama is losing NY right now.

Obama is up in PA right now, and in the MOE in Ohio. MI should be in the bag for any Dem. Obama also opens up pick ups like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina and New Mexico. Until the "kitchen sink" started, he was even competitive in VA.

He has the possibility of a much more diverse electoral map being created. Hillary, although I think she'd probably win as well, places too much importance on those 4 states you mentioned. There ARE other ways to win the GE, and forsaking a lot of other purplish states for the ones the media declared "swing states", you put a lot of emphasis on a couple of states known for trending red and voter irregularities.

[kentuck]

45. He's not losing NY..

In her home state, Hillary got like 56% of the vote against Obama. He is very strong in NY. It's a nonsensical statement.

[jackson_dem]

46. He was losing in the previous poll there until a new one came out, where he is up safely

[kentuck]

5. It's a shallow argument.

Obama has won in states that will determine who wins the Presidency. Any Democrat can win NY and CA and IL at this time. A more important question might be: "Since you have had 16 years to build up the Party organization in these big states, how is Obama winning so many votes?"

[marylanddem]

6. I love his answer! He will be our first cool President.

Or maybe second if you count JFK...

[NJmaverick]

7. How completely and utterly dishonest!

Fact:

PA is older, more white and more female than the rest of the Country

Hillary has roots to this state, because she grew up here.


The TRUTH is if she can't hold on to her 20% lead, in her home state with perfect demographics she is not a very viable candidate.

[jackson_dem]

11. So Obama can't win the white, female, and old votes? That is the Obamite argument

We should do well in the GE with a candidate who by the admission of his biggest supporters struggles with whites, females, and seniors! YES WE CAN (win with 40% in the GE)!

[NJmaverick]

17. Now that's another dishonest spin on things

there is a difference between women preferring to vote for Hillary and Obama not getting their support in the GE. Same can be said of older and white voters.

If we were to take your dishonest spin, Hillary can't win with younger voters, males and black voters.

[jackson_dem]

20. McSame is old and white, no?

[NJmaverick]

22. So Hillary would also lose the older voters

along with the men, the black voters and the younger voters. At least according to your twisted logic

[jackson_dem]

McSame is young and black?

[NJmaverick]

29. Your arguement is if a demographic group doesn't favor them now

they will not support them in November. I guess you are seeing the flaw in that line of reasoning.

[Andy823]

10. Stupid spin

By the Clinton camp to give her a reason to keep on going no matter how small a number she wins by. I get so sick of hearing her talk about only certain state matter, and the rest of the states she lost in, mean nothing! There is no logic in her reasoning, just excuses for her going on and making it harder for a democrat to win the GE!:mad:

[jackson_dem]

14. Her logic is the only logic that matters: the electoral vote

[SeaLyons]

38. Obama supporters...

don't get it - the electoral vote is how we win the White House. They DON'T get it.

[jackson_dem]

40. Yup and they also don't realize different states have a different number of electoral votes

They think winning Oregon or New Mexico is the same as winning Florida or Ohio in the general election...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. It says that Clinton's strategy focused on the big states from the get-go.

That's all it says.

[JKaiser]

16. Hillary has a good point.. Hillary to Victory! GO HILL!

[Diane R]

23. And I would say, "If she can't pay her bills, what does that say about her ability to run the econom

[redqueen]

25. Is that the same guy that said if Hill lost TX it was over?

Yeah, uh huh. Sure Bill... keep on moving those goalposts.

Fucking shameless they are.

[jackson_dem]

41. He was right then. If she lost Texas she would have been forced out on 3/5

[cliffordu]

26. Gettin' the spin machine ramped up.....

[CBGLuthier]

27. The ONLY way Obama would lose NY or California

Would be if Hillary's supporters stayed home with their thumbs up their asses instead of voting for the democratic candidate.

If that is the way the party is going to work then to hell with it.

But for this loudmouth to say vote for me or we lose is such disloyal garbage they should run her out of the party on a fucking rail.

[Zachstar]

30. Nothing says ANYTHING about GE states right now.

Once democrats are Unified. Obama's numbers against McCain will rise in all areas.

No what is is doing is trying to start the donation thing. She wants to make the case that she is desperately trying to win in November and if we want a democrat to win we need to give her money?

Clinton has no money. Obama has a HUGE warchest going into May. She is spinning now hoping to spin BS into money.

Don't buy it folks. She knows she is in trouble and she has NOTHING to lose by trying ANYTHING at this point sadly.

[Ichingcarpenter]

44. Super Delegates say she has to win by 10 points to stay in ...LA Times reports

The spread: Clinton needs to win by at least 10 percentage points -- the margin she posted over Obama in Ohio's March 4 primary -- to show that she has not lost her touch in the industrial Rust Belt, several uncommitted superdelegates said.

If she is successful, she will be able to point superdelegates to the fact that she trounced Obama despite being severely outspent on television and radio advertisements in Pennsylvania by a more than 2-to-1 margin.

If Obama can keep the race to within 10 percentage points, or even win, he would claim that he has shown surprising strength in a state that is Clinton's demographic home turf, with many of the lower-income Democrats who have supported her in earlier primaries. That kind of result would give Obama momentum heading toward the May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina, where a sweep would make a Clinton nomination feel all the more unrealistic.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-pennsylvania22apr22,0,6842509.story

[anonymous171]

48. Al Gore didn't win PA either.