The MSNBC pundits are full of shit

[my3boyz]

All last week they were saying unless Hillary had a double digit victory it would be a win for Obama. Now (starting yesterday) all of their pundits said a single digit victory was all she need. Chris Matthews said she need 8 to be considered a victory for her after saying double digits all last week. Then this morning on Morning Joe Chuck Todd says that she needs at least 7 digit victory (after previously suggesting that she needed a big double digit win). This morning he said that if the Clinton victory is larger than 7 then Obama has fundamental problems! It is obvious they see the polls tightening and they do not want the "race" to end so they are backing off the double digit win. Pathetic. Unfortunately the person that only turns on politics occasionally would not notice the shift in what they are saying. At any rate, I still believe that Clinton will have a double digit win. I just think it is ridiculous for so called pundits to try to make people believe that a 7 pt victory for her is a game changer.

[blm]

1. Yeah - we expect Clintons to move the goalpost, but corpmedia is doing it right along with her.

Must be that war with Iran they are in charge of promoting for BushInc.

[joeybee12]

17. Well, since Barry started moving it himself...what's your point?

He's setting his expectations low, so that if he only loses by 10 or less, he can clami a victory. SOP in politics, but when Hilary does it, it's evil, when Barry does it, it's about hope and change. AFR.

[blm]

19. Baloney - Clinton was 24 points ahead and Obama camp always expected to lose by about 10

but your reach to pretend otherwise is welcome to stand a testament to the reality of the Clinton's camp disconnect with the truth.

[The_Counsel]

24. Well, Here's The Thing: The Problem Isn't Hillary...

We expect both candidates to lower expectations. "Standard Operating Procedure," as you say...

...but the so-called NEWS MEDIA shouldn't be doing this. All they want is ratings. Okay, fine. But that doesn't mean they aren't doing the public a disservice.

Hillary's internals are probably telling her she'll win by 8, so they're saying that's all they need. Ignoring the fact that even a 20-point win only nets her nine delegates.

Obama's internals are probably telling him that he could actually pull out a 51-49 win, so they're saying he'll probably lose to keep the voters from getting complacent. That way he still gets the delegates he needs. But that also ignores the fact that the Rendell machine is strong in Pennsylvania.

It's all about perception.

And delegates.

[KansasVoter]

2. Matthews has said that MSNBC loves this tight race........

they want it to continue. Anything less than a 10 point win is horrible for a candidate up 26 point 4 weeks ago.

[Red Zelda]

3. If Billary wins Pa. at all ...

That blimp-sized gasbag Rendell probably rigged it. I've found 2 people voting for Billary and about 50 for Obama.

[my3boyz]

9. Haha..had to laugh at your description of Rendell. lol nt

[AllentownJake]

4. There are only two opinions that matter

1) That of her donors who by nature are politcal junkies and a majority won't throw money into a dying horse

2) That of the super delegates who are also political junkies.

I think both of these groups are smart enough to know more than what is being reported on MSNBC, CNN, or Fox

[liberaldem4ever]

8. Hope so

[splat]

5. They figure the more money Obama spent there, the more of a return you'd expect

Money brought the expectations down.

[olkaz]

6. The goalposts keep getting moved.... there they go again.... and again...

Spin spin spin.

[Justitia]

7. I saw/heard that this morning, and it completely gave me whiplash! They crave drama. -eom

[Coexist]

10. maybe Jon or Stephen can make a fun montage of the 'lowered expectations'

that would be really funny!

[OnlyObama]

11. They love the ratings n/t

[legin]

12. I'll take a punt

Clinton wins by :-

0-3% : Possibly Hillary has to consider quitting the race.

3-6% : Nasty grey area 1 but favourable to Obama.

6-8% : expected result and sort of a no result, good for both sides and bad for both sides, onto the next primary.

8-11 : Nasty grey area 2 but favourable to Clinton.

11+% : A good result for Hillary, she's back in the fight.

[GoesTo11]

22. I'll skip the fair catch and try to return that punt

-3 - 0 Clinton doesn't just consider quitting, she does.
0-3 - what you said
3-6 - what you said
6-10 expected result (54.5-45.5 wouldn't be that favorable), especially if delegate count is tighter
10-15 - nasty grey area
15-20 - good for Clinton - slight boost that supports her arguments but doesn't help with the math
20+ - even Obama supporters have to start asking why this happened - Obama will have to retool

[high density]

13. They want this to go until August

It's a ratings bonanza for them. I mean nobody would even be watching today if Clinton had dropped out after losing TX.

[Redbear]

14. What is ridiculous is to say a 6 point win is a loss and a 10 point win is a win.

That is silly season at its silliest.

[City Lights]

15. Like Hillary, they'll say anything to keep the primary going.

And like Hillary, they have no credibility.

Chuck Todd is a disappointment...I always thought he was a straight shooter. He's been saying for awhile that she needs 20-25 point spreads in the remaining states, and on the morning of the PA primary he changes his tune. :eyes:

[truebrit71]

21. He can say whatever he likes, it doesn't change the math...she won't be able to win...

...unless she blows him out by 20+ points for the rest of the primary season..

Everyone but Billary knows they are done...and I pray that today the folks in PA finally drive the stake into the heart of the most vicious, spiteful and vindictive campaign I can recall...

[madrchsod]

16. she needs to win all the delegates from pa

to have a chance for the nomination. she needs a huge win to receive more contributions to "soldier on" in her campaign for the white house. it will be extremely difficult to wage war on obama when she has very little to feed and pay her army.

[davidlynch]

18. Chuck Todd I Don't Understand...

He's said over and over that Clinton needs 64% victories in all remaining states. If he's suddenly saying that 7% would do in PA, then he'll have some explaining to do immediately after the polls begin closing, as he'll do his math (as he always does) and calculates what Clinton would need to win. I don't see how he can have it both ways, the numbers don't lie.

[Justitia]

23. He's done a bit of a sudden "about face". I think he got a talking to, JMHO. -eom

[mtnsnake]

20. Yeah they're full of shit when they're pro Hillary but they're geniuses when pro Obama

wahhhhHHHHH

[The_Counsel]

25. Way To Oversimplify The Point.

Awesome. :eyes:

The REAL point is that guys like like Todd should be consistent--especially since the math won't change anyway. A 20-point win (60-40) only nets Hillary nine delegates or so. That is unchangeable fact. An 8-point win (54-46), which is probably what her internals are saying, is a statistical push. And they know it. That's why they're saying "a win is a win is a win."

Except that it really isn't.

[zbdent]

26. the media is like a teenager who keeps hitting a wasp's nest with a stick

I ain't going to cry for them when they're stung to death ...

[wowimthere]

27. It's the elected Delegates. That's it. This determines who won. They can say all they want.

She can't win that so now they want to say that she needs the popular vote. We will see that she can't win that and then pundits will say... wait, it's the SDs.