Prediction: Obama by 10 in PA today

[BobbyVan]

* The polls don't include people with cell phones and no land lines (i.e., young professionals = Obama voters).
* Weather is good, which means high turnout, which helps Obama (Hillary gets the machine voters, anything above that I predict goes 2:1 for Obama).
* HRC has continued to stumble, and the Bin Laden ad is going to backfire bigtime.
* Obama outspent HRC 2:1 in Pennsylvania.

Therefore, I predict a double-digit Obama victory in PA today, surprising everyone and forcing Hillary to concede.

[beachmom]

1. Wrong. It will be Hillary by 12. The smallest margin possible is 8. nt

[GoesTo11]

21. OP and you - dueling clairvoyants

[mkultra]

26. there is no way shell get 8 points

And when she doesnt, youll just have to pretend it didnt happen.

[beachmom]

28. Hello, I support Obama. And I also know that you hurt him by raising expectations too high. nt

[mkultra]

31. im making a balanced guess based on the poll roundups

54% seems unlikley at this point

[Hoof Hearted]

48. thanks!

[AtomicKitten]

2. That would be great but IMO the outcome is a crapshoot at this point.

An electronic voting machine crapshoot.

[NJSecularist]

3. ....

:spray: :spray:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Did you hit the bottle early this morning?


Obama will be lucky to lose by 3, let alone win by 1, let alone win by 10.

[PBS Poll-435]

4. That was good for a chuckle...

Thanks

:spray:

[PBS Poll-435]

44. Wow...

I got the hiccups from the champagne....

[DearAbby]

5. I predict Wendell Wilkie will lose!

And while I have my Crystal ball out...I will go out on the limb and tell you, I see a loss for Gerald Ford. Both will lose to Democrats!

And that is all I have to say about that.

[Zachstar]

9. I predict George Bush will lose!

[DearAbby]

17. Yes YES!!...........n/t

[Zachstar]

6. Um what? Clinton cant be forced to do anything.

Get that through your skull.

Clinton can exit any time she wants. Ron Paul is still in the race for example.

[Occam Bandage]

7. Obama will be lucky if he only loses by 5.

[Hoof Hearted]

55. or 8

[Austinitis]

8. I generally don't play the number-prediction game, but this is just dumb.

I'm not throwing out the idea that Obama might win, but there isn't anyone who knows what they're talking about thinks he's going to pull off a ten point win. That's like saying Hillary will pull out a 25 point lead. It's not even fantasy. It's just stupid.

[redstate_democrat]

10. There is voter suppression in Philly today thanks to Nutter et al

so I don't expect that to happen.

[Sensitivity]

11. My Friend who lives in Philly says NO WAY. "Some Whites are not willing to vote for an African Am

to quote Gov. Rendell.

[SeaLyons]

13. similar to...

blacks that would not vote for Hillary. In fact, probably wouldn't vote at all if Obama wasn't a candidate.

[The_Counsel]

19. What? Blacks Have Voted For White Democrats For Decades...

...or have you forgotten that Kerry had 88% of the Black vote in '04?

Or that Gore had 93% of the Black vote in 2000?

Hell, up until January pollsters were scratching their heads because Hillary was beating Obama among Blacks.

This Black man will not vote for Hillary for two reasons--neither of which have anything to do with race or gender:

1. Obama simply is the better candidate

2. The fact that Hillary has done just about everything she's railed against in the past out of sheer desperation is a MAJOR turn off for me. I won't even vote for her in the next Senate race now...

[SeaLyons]

20. Yes, they have voted

in the past for white candidates, but that would not be the case this time. It wouldn't matter who was running against Obama. He will get the black vote.

Hillary is hands down the most qualified, experiened candidate.

[The_Counsel]

22. So, Are You Saying...

...that Blacks suddenly turned racist and decided ALL AT ONCE to "vote for their own?"

Wow.

Just ... wow.

And why do you think Obama will automatically get the Black vote? Becuase he's Black himself (simply speaking)? How does that explain that he was LOSING the Black vote to a WHITE candidate early on? And what if he were running against another Black candidate with better ideas that would better serve the Black community? Would he automatically get the Black vote then?

Sheesh... Think these things out before you post...

[SeaLyons]

24. I'd explain it this way....

John Lewis endorsed Hillary in the beginning. He was "forced" to change that endorsement to Obama. He was told he had to give his support to a "brotha". That pretty much sums it up.

[The_Counsel]

34. Hmm... So I Guess Michael Nutter Didn't Get The Threat -- I Mean -- Memo...

Guess Maxine Waters didn't, either.

Or Alcee Hastings.

Or Corrine Brown.

Emmanuel Cleaver.

Sheila Jackson Lee.

Stephanie Tubbs-Jones.

Edolphus Townes.

Charlie Rangel.

Greg Meeks.


All those guys missed the memo, eh?

Thanks for playing...

[SeaLyons]

35. There are exceptions...I agree..

but for the most part, my premise is correct (and you know it).

Peace.

[The_Counsel]

36. What Premise?

That Blacks have somehow had their arms twisted en masse so that they'd support Obama?

No, I don't agree.

If that were the case, Obama would have fared better in New York, for example. As it was, he didn't carry a single county, IIRC. You'd think he'd at least have carried Brooklyn, for example. Eh... :shrug:

[terrell9584]

that you say this shows you have no experience with the South

Which is where more than 70% of the country's black population lives.

Here is the reality check. In this county, blacks vote straight Democratic ballots, to the tune of 80-85%. Another 7-10% will "split a ticket", but that ticket will magically lead them to vote for almost all Democratic candidates, because of flyers that are passed around neighborhoods by black political organizations and through the recommendations of black clergy (who have as much influence over their flocks as white evangelical clergy do)

There is the fact that black political power in this country is tied to the Democratic Party & Democratic turnout. Sheriffs, state legislative seats, many of these things are up for election this year. Blacks know that if they don't show up or if they refuse to vote the ticket, their guy might not get in, and in area where the races are of equal population but where there is much racial polarization, that could mean the difference between either a black Democratic sheriff who will be concerned for them (or a white Democratic sheriff who will have concern just out of primary considerations) or a white Republican sheriff, who gets one term in office, but who will not be beholden to black voters at all, and may in fact, act in a manner that is deliberately anti-black in order to boost their stature in Republican politics.

I will concede that you may see black turnout drop off in say, North Dakota, if the nominee is Hillary, then again, how many blacks were in that state anyway and what kind of racial tension has there ever been. Black turnout is not going to drop off on the West Coast, where the tension is real, it is not going to drop off in the South, where having the wrong sheriff or district attorney can have real consequence, and it is not going to drop off in all of these northern cities where racial tension remains a fact of life.

Black voters are sophisticated enough that they are not going to cut off their nose to spite their face just so they can voice a grievance about anything related to Barack Obama. There will not be riots if he loses the nomination via superdelegates or brokered convented. And to be honest, I find it insulting that people would paint the black community as having such a broad brush. The truth is, black voters will come out at normal levels if Clinton is the nominee. If Obama is the nominee, that turnout will obviously be higher, but the discreprancy between the two will not be what costs the election, because the only state in which a higher black turnout could swing it would be Mississippi and in Mississippi we know that this black turnout would be matched by an increased white turnout, and so the increased vote probably runs to a draw.

But, let's stop using this line of "blacks won't vote" that really serves as nothing more than an insult to the black community

[The_Counsel]

29. Wait ... Was This Post For Me...?

...'cause it seems it adds to my point, for the most part.

The only part I disagree with is the notion that more Blacks will vote Democrat if Obama is the nominee. How much higer can the man go? Remember Gore had 93% in 2000, which is an astounding number by any standard. What, Obama's gonna clock 96%? 98%? 100%? There ARE Black Republicans out there, you know...

And yes, I do have some experience in the south, having lived in South Carolina for a few years. I never could understand how there could be so many Blacks with liberal views in the state, yet it seems a liberal can't even get on a ballot there, much less get more than, oh, 35% of the vote or so. In fact, it's not just blacks, it's liberals in general. There's more of 'em in SC than one would think. A lot of 'em seem to assume it's a lost cause, so they don't bother. Seeing this, I would even put SC in the same boat you put MS in, but that's just me thinkin' out loud...

[terrell9584]

32. i thought you had said "the" rather than "this"

and my experience with black voters (at least in a Deep South state that is not SC or MS) is that economically they are to the left, but not when it comes to say, something like gay marriage. When the gay marriage ban came up for a vote a few years ago, the only areas that voted against it were a couple of white neighborhoods in a historic district.

Though I would guess that more liberal candidates don't get elected because by default, your more liberal voters live in the higher population counties, and the South (as you should be aware) is the inverse of the rest of the nation. Here, the cities are battlegrounds, the suburbs are heavily Republican and the rural areas are Democratic and controlled by Democratic courthouse rings. This is also why you tend to see more "business Republicans" win statewide office than the Religious Right, because the evangelical types just get slaughtered in coastal cities and that kills any advantage they would have in more inland areas where Evangelical politics is more popular.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties in the South (except for Arkansas, where they maintained one party politics) are bipolar. With the Republicans there is the urban business wing, the older wing and the newer rural evangelical wing. In the Democratic Party, you have the black wing, which can be divided into rural black and urban black and the white wing, which consists of the old guard, of rural courthouse wings and interests such as the teachers unions and trial lawyers. There is also some truth to the idea that there are now black courthouse rings (at least in black controlled counties), and they have just as much desire for a "liberal reformer" or someone who will clean up the system as white rings. (as reference, I bring up the case of where an outgoing Atlanta sheriff has the man that beat him killed, i have been under the impression both men were black, correct me if wrong)

The South still runs on machine politics, it's just that the number of machines has increased and so you have to have more than one machine behind you if you are to win, except for Arkansas, where apparently, the Clinton organization did manage to essentially freeze the state in one party politics while still managing to control the courthouse rings that govern it. I also believe that South Carolina only went Republican when it did because of Thurmond, and I have seen signs to suggest that the rise of the religious right is beginning to turn off many of the original Republicans in coastal areas such as Charleston, the people who reacted with abject horror to the Huckabee candidacy. I personally think that overtime, as the Republican Party becomes more and more identified with the Religious Right and as the urbanites are pushed out, you are going to gradually see them gravitate towards a Democratic Party, that while still mirroring the conservatism of said state as a whole, won't be beholden to the 700 club set. In other words, I think the strategy of bringing Evangelicals into the party to boost numbers will be it's death blow, because the people who actually voted for Ford in 1976 want nothing to do with the Religious Right.

[BobbyVan]

33. o rly?

[ampad]

12. I love your enthusiasm but

I have to disagree. I think (unfortunately) Hillary will win this one.

[Saturday]

14. You're a dreamer, aren't you? nt

[tishaLA]

15. OMG. I'm an Obama supporter but...

there's no way in hell that's going to happen.

[BobbyVan]

37. Just wait, I'm ready for a PA shocker today.

[Orangepeel]

16. Well, that would certainly end the contest.

Unfortunately, it ain't gonna happen.

[Hoof Hearted]

18. Bookmarked.

[emilyg]

23. Thanks for a good laugh.

Clinton by 12.

[Maddy McCall]

25. Reverse that, and you've got my prediction. Hillary by 10.

[MadBadger]

27. Not so sure about that maddy, I think the undecideds are moving to Obama this time around

Even if he doesnt win, I think it will be a lot closer than you expect....I could always be wrong though.

[Hoof Hearted]

51. hnmnf - Have you seen our tribute to you "at that other site?"

[Skoods]

54. ..

Undecideds went for Hillary

[barack the house]

30. Well let's just say hopefully. Time will tell.

[WinkyDink]

38. Don't quit your day job.

[Thepricebreaker]

39. Large amounts of crack is bad for you...

He isn't going to win this state...

[Maddy McCall]

40. Ouch

[Hoof Hearted]

41. how ya feelin bout that prediction now?

[Hoof Hearted]

42. Wooooop! Wooooooop!

[question everything]

43. Didn't you mean: Obama DOWN by 10 in PA? (eom)

[Phillycat]

45. Hee! Kick!

[BadgerLaw2010]

46. You want that crow BBQ or fried?

[tgnyc]

47. D'oh!

[Hoof Hearted]

49. BobbyVan - - - WRONG.

[Hoof Hearted]

50. BOBBYVan - - - how ya doin?

[Maven]

52. What up?

:hi:

[RememberWellstone]

53. Good call.

You guys are brilliant.